Planning for Sea Level Rise and Shore Protection Under Climate Uncertainty

Attention is focused here on the effect of additional sources of uncertainty derived from climate change on the cost-benefit procedures applied by coastal planners to evaluate shoreline protection projects. The largest effect would be felt if planners were trying to achieve the first best economic optimum. Given the current view that the seas will rise by significantly less than one meter through the year 2100, present procedures should work reasonably well assuming (1) informed vigilance in monitoring the pace of future greenhouse induced sea level rise, (2) careful attention to the time required for market-based adaptation to minimize the economic cost of abandonment, and (3) firm support of the credibility of an announced policy to proceed with plans to retreat from the sea when warranted. Assumptions (1) and (2) might be satisfied in reality, even cursory review of existing policy makes it clear that meeting (3) is a "long shot" at the very best. In any case, planners should periodically revisit potential protection sites, especially in the wake of catastrophic events, to assess the impact of the most recent information on sea level rise trajectories, local development patterns, and protection costs on the decision calculus.     

Evidence for Holocene environmental change from C/N ratios, and δ13C and δ15N values in Swan Lake sediments, western Sand Hills, Nebraska

Profiles of percent carbon and nitrogen, carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratios and stable carbon (¹³C), and nitrogen (¹⁵N) isotopic ratios in organic matter from an 11.6 m core were used to reconstruct environments of deposition in the Swan Lake basin during the past 5300 YBP. The upper 6.5 m consisted of gyttja containing variable amounts of reddish brown-colored fine organic matter and calcium carbonate. It was followed by a 0.5 m sandy silt, which was followed by a 3.6 m reduced layer characterized by large quantities of black organic plant remains, sapropel, and then by another sapropel layer consisting mainly of well-sorted sapropelic sand with relatively low organic matter content. The C- and N-contents in the organic matter in the sediment profile ranged from 0.5 to 23% and from 0.02 to 2%, respectively. Carbon content were positively correlated to both N and clay content while carbon content was negatively correlated to sand content. Two major environmental phases in Swan Lake were apparent from large differences in the C and N data of the sediment organic matter. These include the sapropel (marsh) stage that stretched from approximately 5330 to 3930 YBP, and the following gyttja (open water stage). During the sapropel marsh plants identified in a previous pollen study as cattails and sedges proliferated and produced copious amounts of well-preserved organic matter. C/N ratios, ¹³C values, and ¹⁵N values in the sapropel were significantly different from those that characterized organic matter in the gyttja. During the gyttja ¹³C values indicated that deep primary producers have dominated lake biomass. By utilizing bicarbonate as their C-source, the accumulating biomass became relatively enriched ¹³C values. The presence of high sediment CaCO₃ contents indicated more alkaline and deeper water conditions prevailed during the gyttja. Further refinement of the data suggested that each major phase initially contained an identifiable transition stage. During the sapropelic (initial marsh stage) which occurred before 5330 YBP, sand content gradually decreased as organic matter increased. As reflected by high C/N ratios and slightly enriched ¹³C values, these sands appear to have contained sufficient permeability to promote partial mineralization of accumulated organic-N containing compounds. A short initial gyttja transition period from about 3930–3830 YBP occurred in which the sediment silt content was anomalously high relative that measured in the surrounding layers. The silt content suggests that this turbid transition layer can not be completely explained by sediment mixing via bioturbation. The silts appeared to have been associated with the sharp climate change that resulted in higher water-table conditions during the gyttja stage.     

Holocene history of lacustrine and marsh sediments in a dune-blocked drainage, Southwestern Nebraska Sand Hills, U.S.A.

As many as 2500 interdune lakes lie within the Nebraska Sand Hills, a 50000 km stabilized sand sea. The few published data on cores from these lakes indicate they are typically underlain by less than two m of Holocene lacustrine sediments. However, three lakes in the southwestern Sand Hills, Swan, Blue, and Crescent, contain anomalously thick marsh (peat) and lacustrine (gyttja) sediments. Swan Lake basin contains as much as 8 m of peat, which was deposited between about 9000 and 3300 years ago. This peat is conformably overlain by as much as 10.5 m of gyttja. The sediment record in Blue lake, which is 3 km downgradient from Swan lake, dates back to only about 6000 years ago. Less than two m of peat, which was deposited from 6000 to 5000 years ago, is overlain by 12 m of gyttja deposited in the last 4300 years. Crescent Lake basin, one km downgradient from Blue Lake, has a similar sediment history except for a lack of known peat deposits. Recently, a 8-km long segment of a paleovalley was documented running beneath the three lakes and connecting to the head of Blue Creek Valley. Blockage of this paleovalley by dune sand during two arid intervals, one shortly before 10500 yr BP and one in the mid-Holocene, has resulted in a 25 m rise in the regional water table. This made possible the deposition of organic-rich sediment in all three lakes. Although these lakes, especially Swan, would seem ideal places to look for a nearly complete record of Holocene climatic fluctuations, the paleoclimatic record is confounded by the effect dune dams have on the water table. In Swan Lake, the abrupt conversion from marsh to lacustrine deposition 3300 years ago does not simply record the change to a wetter regional climate; it reflects the complex local hydrologic changes surrounding the emplacement and sealing of dune dams, as well as regional climate.     

Isoprenoids in a Costa Rican seep oil

The isoprenoid alkanes present in a seep oil from Costa Rica have been examined using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. In addition to the predominance of the C₁₆ and C₁₈-C₂₀ regular isoprenoid alkanes, the C₂₁ and C₂₃-C₂₅ regular isoprenoid alkanes were identified. The C₂₆, C₂₈ and C₃₀ regular isoprenoid alkanes were tentatively identified. No evidence for the regular C₁₇, C₂₂ or C₂₇ isoprenoid alkanes was found. The compounds 3,7,11- trimethyltetradecane and 3,7,11-trimethylhexadecane were tentatively identified. It is suggested that a higher regular isoprenoid structure (or structures) is required in addition to phytol to account for the distribution of isoprenoid alkanes.     

A Mariner 9 atlas of the moons of Mars

This paper contains a complete set of the best enhancements of Mariner 9 high resolution television pictures of Phobos and Deimos, consisting of 27 different views of Phobos, and 9 of Deimos. Pertinent data about the pictures are arranged in convenient tabular and graphical form.     

A theory for some pyroxene crystallization trends

Changes in solid solution limits, which must occur as crystallization proceeds, are used to interpret crystallization trends of pyroxenes from the Bushveld Intrusion, from oxidised and reduced basaltic lavas, and from lunar lavas.     

On the interpretation of the “inverse phase effect” for CO2 equivalent widths on Venus

Computations of the equivalent widths of absorption lines as a function of planetary phase angle are made for a homogeneous cloud with particles having the properties (shape, refractive index, and size distribution) deduced from polarimetry of Venus. The computed equivalent widths show an “inverse phase effect” comparable to that which is observed for CO₂ lines on Venus. This result verifies a recent suggestion of Regas et al. that the existence of an inverse phase effect does not by itself imply the presence of multiple layers of scattering particles in the atmosphere of Venus.