Influence of calibration methodology on ground water flow predictions

We constructed a numerical model of transient ground water flow and solute transport for a portion of the Biscayne Aquifer in Florida, and calibrated the model with three different combinations of data from a 193-day period: head (h) data alone, data on h and ground water discharge to a canal (q), and data on h, q, and ground water chloride concentration (C). We used each of the three calibrated models to predict h and q during a 182-day test period separate from the calibration period. All three calibrated models predicted h equally well during the test period (r = 0.95, where r = 1 indicates perfect agreement between measured and simulated values), though the model calibrated on h alone had significantly different parameter values than the other two models. Predictions of q during the test period depended on calibration methodology; models calibrated with multiple targets simulated q more accurately than the model calibrated on h alone (r = 0.79 compared to r = 0.49). Based on the results of these simulations, we conclude: (1) Post-calibration prediction is important in assessing the value of different data types in automated calibration; (2) inverse-solution uniqueness is not a requirement for accurate h predictions; (3) relatively simple models can predict with reasonable accuracy transient ground water flow in a complex aquifer, and parameters governing this prediction can be estimated by nonlinear regression methods that incorporate both h and q data; (4) addition of C data to the calibration did not improve model predictive capacity because the information in the C data was similar to that in the q data, from the perspective of model calibration (the subsurface chemical signal in question was controlled mainly by seepage of high-chloride canal water into the low-chloride ground water system).     

Soil feedback drives the mid-Holocene North African monsoon northward in fully coupled CCSM2 simulations with a dynamic vegetation model

We explore climate-vegetation interactions in mid-Holocene North Africa with a suite of community climate system model (CCSM2) simulations. The CCSM includes synchronously coupled atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land, and vegetation models. The CCSMs present-day precipitation for North Africa compares well with simulations of other models and observations. Mid-Holocene data reveal a wetter and greener Sahara compared to the present. The CCSM exhibits a greater, closer to the expected, precipitation increase than other models, and in response, grasses advance from 18.75° to 22.5°N in much of North Africa. Precipitation is enhanced locally by the northward advance of grasses, but suppressed regionally mainly due to an insufficient albedo decrease with the expansion of vegetation. Prior studies have always lowered the surface albedo with the expansion of vegetation in North Africa. In the CCSMs mid-Holocene simulations, the albedo decreases more because wetter soils are simulated darker than drier soils than due to expanding vegetation. These results isolate albedo as the key ingredient in obtaining a positive precipitation-vegetation feedback in North Africa. Two additional simulations support this conclusion. In the first simulation, the deserts sandy soil textures are changed to loam to represent increased organic matter. Soil water retention and grass cover increase; albedo decreases somewhat. Precipitation responds with a small, yet widespread, increase. In the second simulation, a darker soil color is prescribed for this region. Now the monsoon advances north about 4°. These results illustrate a North African monsoon highly sensitive to changes in surface albedo and less sensitive to changes in evapotranspiration.     

Concentration and subcellular distribution of trace elements in liver of small cetaceans incidentally caught along the Brazilian coast

Concentrations of trace elements (V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Cu, Zn, Ga, As, Se, Rb, Sr, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sb, Cs, Ba, T-Hg, Org-Hg, Tl and Pb) were determined in liver samples of estuarine dolphin (Sotalia guianensis; n = 20), Franciscana dolphin (Pontoporia blainvillei; n = 23), Atlantic spotted dolphin (Stenella frontalis; n = 2), common dolphin (Delphinus capensis; n = 1) and striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba; n = 1) incidentally caught along the coast of Sao Paulo State and Parana State, Brazil, from 1997 to 1999. The hepatic concentrations of trace elements in the Brazilian cetaceans were comparable to the data available in literature on marine mammals from Northern Hemisphere. Concentrations of V, Se, Mo, Cd, T-Hg and Org-Hg increased with increasing age in liver of both estuarine and Franciscana dolphins. Very high concentrations of Cu (range, 262-1970 microg/g dry wt.) and Zn (range, 242-369 microg/g dry wt.) were observed in liver of sucklings of estuarine dolphin. Hepatic concentrations of V, Se, T-Hg, Org-Hg and Pb were significantly higher in estuarine dolphin, whereas Franciscana dolphin showed higher concentrations of Mn, Co, As and Rb. Ratio of Org-Hg to T-Hg in liver was significantly higher in Franciscana dolphin than estuarine dolphin, suggesting that demethylation ability of methyl Hg might be lower in liver of Franciscana than estuarine dolphins. High hepatic concentrations of Ag were found in some specimens of Franciscana dolphin (maximum, 20 microg/g dry wt.), and 17% of Franciscana showed higher concentrations of Ag than Hg. These samples with high Ag concentration also exhibited elevated hepatic Se concentration, implying that Ag might be detoxified by Se in the liver. Higher correlation coefficient between (Hg+0.5 Ag) and Se than between Hg and Se and the large distribution of Ag in non-soluble fraction in nuclear and mitochondrial fraction of the liver also suggests that Ag might be detoxified by Se via formation of Ag2Se in the liver of Franciscana dolphin.     

Determination of the properties of Mercury's magnetic field by the MESSENGER mission

The MESSENGER mission to Mercury, to be launched in 2004, will provide an opportunity to characterize Mercury's internal magnetic field during an orbital phase lasting one Earth year. To test the ability to determine the planetary dipole and higher-order moments from measurements by the spacecraft's fluxgate magnetometer, we simulate the observations along the spacecraft trajectory and recover the internal field characteristics from the simulated observations. The magnetic field inside Mercury's magnetosphere is assumed to consist of an intrinsic multipole component and an external contribution due to magnetospheric current systems described by a modified Tsyganenko 96 model. Under the axis-centered-dipole approximation without correction for the external field the moment strength is overestimated by ∼4% for a simulated dipole moment of , and the error depends strongly on the magnitude of the simulated moment, rising as the moment decreases. Correcting for the external field contributions can reduce the error in the dipole term to a lower limit of ∼1-2% without a solar wind monitor. Dipole and quadrupole terms, although highly correlated, are then distinguishable at the level equivalent to an error in the position of an offset dipole of a few tens of kilometers. Knowledge of the external magnetic field is therefore the primary limiting factor in extracting reliable knowledge of the structure of Mercury's magnetic field from the MESSENGER observations.     

Constraints from Moho geometry and crustal thickness on the geodynamic origin of the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone (Romania)

Reprocessing of industry deep seismic reflection data (Ramnicu Sarat and Braila profiles) from the SE Carpathian foreland of Romania provides important new constraints on geodynamic models for the origin of the intermediate depth Vrancea Seismogenic Zone (VSZ). Mantle (70–200 km) earthquakes of the VSZ are characterized by high magnitudes (greater than 6.5), frequent occurrence rates (approximately 25 years), and confinement in a very narrow (30 × 70 × 200 km³) near vertical zone atypical for a Wadati–Benioff plane, located in front of the orogen. These two deep (20 s) seismic reflection profiles (70 km length across the foreland) reveal (1) a high-amplitude, gently east-dipping reflection across most of the section from what we interpret to be the Moho at  15 s (40–42 km) on the Ramnicu Sarat line to  16 s (47–48 km) on the Braila line, (2) a thick sedimentary cover increasing in thickness from east (1 s;  800 m) to west (7.5 s; 14 km), (3) an eastward increase in crustal thickness from 38 km (near VSZ) to  45 km, (4) seismic and topographic evidence for a newly imaged, possibly seismically active basement fault with a surface offset of 30 m observed on the Ramnicu Sarat line, (5) a lack of notable west-dipping structures in the crust and across the Moho, and (6) variable displacements on Peceneaga–Camena Fault of  5 km at Moho and  200 m at the basement–sedimentary cover contact.These observations appear to argue against recent models for west-dipping subduction of oceanic lithosphere at or in the vicinity of the Vrancea Seismogenic Zone given the lack of west-dipping fabrics in the lower crust and across the crust–mantle boundary. Consequently, one possible explanation for the geodynamic origin of VSZ could be partial delamination of the continental lithosphere in an intra-plate setting along a sub-horizontal lithospheric interface in the Carpathian hinterland that likely involves remnant lithospheric coupling between the crust and uppermost mantle in the foreland.     

Nitrogen isotope ratios in estuarine biota collected along a nutrient gradient in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA

Stable nitrogen isotope ratios were used to study the incorporation of anthropogenically-derived nitrogen into the food webs of salt marsh systems along a contamination gradient in Narragansett Bay. Nitrogen isotope ratios (delta(15)N) were measured in six estuarine species collected from three marshes along this gradient, monthly from June to October between 1997 and 1999. A significant decrease in delta(15)N was found with distance along the estuary for four of the six species. Significant differences were found among monthly isotope ratios for some species. Nitrogen isotope ratios in sea lettuce (Ulva lactuca) increased during the summer season with highest delta(15)N values measured during September and October. This trend was most pronounced at the station receiving the highest nutrient inputs. Elevated delta(15)N values at this station appeared to correlate with seawater ammonia/nitrate concentration ratios. The temporal variations in delta(15)N suggest that care should be taken in species selection and the design of sampling schemes of studies using delta(15)N for monitoring anthropogenic nutrients in aquatic systems. Sampling programs designed to determine long-term trends should consider species that do not show rapid fluctuations in isotope ratios. The mud snail, Nassarius obsoletus, responded this way in the present study. Studies designed to measure short-term changes should include species such as U. lactuca, which rapidly respond to isotope changes. The results from this study also help to establish a baseline for nitrogen isotope values in Narragansett Bay. This information can be used to monitor future trends in nitrogen inputs to this estuary.     

Studies on turbulent diffusion processes and evaluation of diffusivity values from hydrodynamic observations in Corpus Christi Bay

The physical process of dispersion which can be attributed to turbulence (turbulent diffusion) or shear (shear-augmented diffusion) within the flow field is very important as it ultimately governs the distribution of constituents of interest within the environment. A series of diffusion experiments were conducted in Corpus Christi Bay, TX with the purpose of characterizing turbulent diffusion through dispersion coefficients or turbulent diffusivity, K_i (i=x, y, z) dependent on the degree of randomness or turbulence intensity, I.Measured with a boat-mounted acoustic doppler current profiler (ADCP), the Eulerian velocity time-series of fluid particles in random motion, u_i was used in the evaluation of the Eulerian time-scale of turbulence, T^E based on the velocity correlation function, R^E with T^E being related to the Lagrangian time-scale T^L through a scaling parameter, β(=T^L/T^E). Surface currents were obtained with high frequency (HF) Radar equipment deployed over the study area from which the horizontal velocity gradients were determined.Within the spatial scale of the experiment (1000 m), the observed low horizontal gradients (10⁻⁴ s⁻¹) allowed for the generation of velocity time-series from an ADCP mounted on a moving platform. A numerical scheme for evaluating turbulent diffusivity values was developed on the basis of Eulerian current measurements and calibrated through the statistics of an evolving dye patch for the scaling parameter β which in this scheme was found to be in the range 1–3.