Towards a comprehensive approach to parameter estimation in land surface parameterization schemes

In climate models, the land–atmosphere interactions are described numerically by land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes. The continuing improvement in realism in these schemes comes at the expense of the need to specify a large number of parameters that are either directly measured or estimated. Also, an emerging problem is whether the relationships used in LSPs are universal and globally applicable. One plausible approach to evaluate this is to first minimize uncertainty in model parameters by calibration. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of some model diagnostics using a slightly modified version of the Simple Biosphere 3 model for a variety of biomes located mainly in the Amazon. First, the degree of influence of each individual parameter in simulating surface fluxes is identified. Next, we estimate parameters using a multi‐operator genetic algorithm applied in a multi‐objective context and evaluate simulations of energy and carbon fluxes against observations. Compared with the default parameter sets, these parameter estimates improve the partitioning of energy fluxes in forest and cropland sites and provide better simulations of daytime increases in assimilation of net carbon during the dry season at forest sites. Finally, a detailed assessment of the parameter estimation problem was performed by accounting for the decomposition of the mean squared error to the total model uncertainty. Analysis of the total prediction uncertainty reveals that the parameter adjustments significantly improve reproduction of the mean and variability of the flux time series at all sites and generally remove seasonality of the errors but do not improve dynamical properties. Our results demonstrate that error decomposition provides a meaningful and intuitive way to understand differences in model performance. To make further advancements in the knowledge of these models, we encourage the LSP community to adopt similar approaches in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ACE‐2 multiple angle micro‐pulse lidar observations from Las Galletas, Tenerife, Canary Islands

Multiple‐angle micro‐pulse lidar (MPL) observations were made at Las Galletas on Tenerife, Canary Islands during the Aerosol Characterization Experiment‐2 (ACE‐2) conducted June–July, 1997. A principal objective of the MPL observations was to characterize the temporal/spatial distributions of aerosols in the region, particularly to identify and profile elevated Saharan dust layers which occur intermittently during the June–July time period. Vertical and slant angle measurements taken 16 and 17 July characterize such an occurrence, providing aerosol backscatter, extinction, and optical depth profiles of the dust layer between 1 and 5 km above mean sea level (MSL). Additionally, horizontal measurements taken in Las Galletas throughout the 6‐week period provide a time profile of the varying aerosol extinction at the surface. This profile exhibits the alternating periods of clean maritime air and pollution outbreaks that typified the region. Horizontal measurements also provide some evidence suggesting the possible influx of Saharan dust from the free troposphere to the surface. This paper presents estimates of aerosol optical properties retrieved from the multi‐angle MPL measurements in addition to an outline of the methodologies employed to obtain these results.     

Lightning‐flash locations related to the precipitation pattern of the storm

Abstract

Triangulation from paired sferics (100 ± 50 kHz) received at stations 57 km apart gave 42 map locations of lightning flashes belonging to a thunderstorm well‐defined on weather radar. This storm was one of many in a long line along the leading edge of a band of light stratiform precipitation (snow above 3 km). The band was 9 km high and 60 km wide, and the storms were embedded in it. The convective region of the storm studied had a north‐south extent of 20 km, the east‐west extent averaging two‐thirds as much. Cumulus heights progressed from 3 km on the west to 7 ± 1 km on the east. Two‐thirds of the lightning flashes were in the convective region. The remaining third were in 160 km² of the light stratiform precipitation immediately west of it.     

Automated design of gravity-assist trajectories to Mars and the outer planets

In this paper, a new approach to planetary mission design is described which automates the search for gravity-assist trajectories. This method finds all conic solutions given a range of launch dates, a range of launch energies and a set of target planets. The new design tool is applied to the problems of finding multiple encounter trajectories to the outer planets and Venus gravity-assist trajectories to Mars. The last four-planet grand tour opportunity (until the year 2153) is identified. It requires an Earth launch in 1996 and encounters Jupiter, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto. Venus gravity-assist trajectories to Mars for the 30 year period 1995–2024 are examined. It is shown that in many cases these trajectories require less launch energy to reach Mars than direct ballistic trajectories.Assistant Professor, School of Aeronautics and AstronauticsGraduate Student, School of Aeronautics and Astronautics     

A shallow seismic refraction study of the Versailles cryptoexplosion structure,central Kentucky

Abstract— The Versailles cryptoexplosion structure, located in central Kentucky, contains a partially brecciated central uplift and a boundary marked by arcuate faulting. Seismic refraction data were used to divide the structure into distinct units on the basis of velocity. A zone of brecciated material shows a decrease in velocity compared with surrounding rocks. Locally thickened strata are present on the flanks of the central uplift. An increase of the bedrock velocity in the area surrounding the structure suggests localized dolomization of fractured bedrock, and a plug of fractured strata near the base of the brecciation appears to be uplifted. Based on the geometry of deformation seen in known impact structures, and the integration of this study with previous geological and geophysical work in the area, it is suggested that our results support the interpretation of the Versailles structure as an eroded astrobleme (Black, 1964b; Seeger, 1972).     

Age and origin of the lowlands of Mars

One of the many significant findings of the Mars Global Surveyor mission is the presence of hundreds of quasi-circular depressions (QCDs) observed from high-resolution MOLA topography data. Their presence has recently been interpreted to reflect a northern lowlands that archive some of the earliest recorded rocks on Mars, mostly below a veneer of Hesperian and Amazonian materials. Here we analyze these data, coupled with a recent synthesis of geologic, geophysical, geomorphic, topographic, and magnetic information. Such analysis allows us to suggest a potential plate tectonic phase during the recorded Early into Middle Noachian martian history that transitioned into a monoplate world with episodic magmatic-driven activity persisting to present. This working hypothesis is based on: (1) the observation that the basement of the northern plains is younger than the basement of the southern highlands, but older than the material exposures of the cratered highlands, suggesting different formational ages for each one of the three geologic-time units; (2) the observation that parts of the very ancient highland's crust are highly magnetized, thus suggesting that most if not all of the formation of the lowlands basement postdates the shut off of the martian dynamo, some 4 Gyr ago, and so allowing hundreds of millions of years for the shaping of the buried lowlands. Consequently, the role of endogenic processes in the earliest geological evolution of Mars (Early perhaps into Middle Noachian) requires reconsideration, since MOLA topographic and MGS magnetic data afford a temporal window sufficient for very early, non-primordial shaping of the northern lowlands' basement.     

New 1982 — 1990 photometry of λ Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0^m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season, we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0^m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0^m.09 down almost to 0^m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55^d.9 ± 0^d.6 and 520^d.8 ± 1^d.0, respectively.     

Effects of carbon dioxide on deep-sea harpacticoids revisited

As part of the evaluation of the environmental impact of sequestering carbon dioxide in the deep ocean, we exposed the sediment-dwelling fauna at a station in Monterey Submarine Canyon (36.378°N, 122.676°W, 3262 m) to carbon dioxide-rich seawater and found that most of the harpacticoid copepods were killed. In an expanded, follow-on experiment on the continental rise nearby (36.709°N, 123.523°W, 3607 m), not only did harpacticoids survive exposure to carbon dioxide-rich seawater, but we found no evidence from seven additional metrics that the harpacticoids had been affected. We infer that during the second experiment the harpacticoids were not exposed to a stressful dose. During the second experiment, carbon dioxide-rich seawater appears to have been produced more slowly than in the first, probably because of differences in the near-bottom flow regimes. We conclude that local physical circumstances can substantially influence the results of experiments of this type and will complicate the evaluation of the environmental consequences of deep-ocean carbon dioxide sequestration.     

Evaluating sulfur dynamics during storm events for three watersheds in the northeastern USA: a combined hydrological,chemical and isotopic approach

Concerns related to climate change have resulted in an increasing interest in the importance of hydrological events such as droughts in affecting biogeochemical responses of watersheds. The effects of an unusually dry summer in 2002 had a marked impact on the biogeochemistry of three watersheds in the north‐eastern USA. Chemical, isotopic and hydrological responses with particular emphasis on S dynamics were evaluated for Archer Creek (New York), Sleepers River (Vermont) and Cone Pond (New Hampshire) watersheds. From 1 August to 14 September 2002, all three watersheds had very low precipitation (48 to 69 mm) resulting in either very low or no discharge (mean 0·015, 0·15 and 0·000 mm day^?1 for Archer Creek, Sleepers River and Cone Pond, respectively). From 15 September to 31 October 2002, there was a substantial increase in precipitation totals (212, 246 and 198 mm, respectively) with increased discharge. Archer Creek was characterized by a large range of SO₄^2? concentrations (152 to 389 µeq L^?1, mean = 273 µeq L^?1) and also exhibited the greatest range in δ³⁴S values of SO₄^2? (?1·4 to 8·8 ‰ ). Sleepers River's SO₄^2? concentrations ranged from 136 to 243 µeq L^?1 (mean = 167 µeq L^?1) and δ³⁴S values of SO₄^2? ranged from 4·0 to 9·0 ‰ . Cone Pond's SO₄^2? concentrations (126–187 µeq L^?1, mean = 154 µeq L^?1) and δ³⁴S values (2·4 to 4·3 ‰ ) had the smallest ranges of the three watersheds. The range and mean of δ¹⁸O‐SO₄^2? values for Archer Creek and Cone Pond were similar (3·0 to 8·9 ‰ , mean = 4·5 ‰ ; 3·9 to 6·3 ‰ , mean = 4·9 ‰ ; respectively) while δ¹⁸O‐SO₄^2? values for Sleepers River covered a larger range with a lower mean (1·2 to 10·0 ‰ , mean = 2·5). The difference in Sleepers River chemical and isotopic responses was attributed to weathering reactions contributing SO₄^2?. For Archer Creek wetland areas containing previously reduced S compounds that were reoxidized to SO₄^2? probably provided a substantial source of S. Cone Pond had limited internal S sources and less chemical or isotopic response to storms. Differences among the three watersheds in S biogeochemical responses during these storm events were attributed to differences in S mineral weathering contributions, hydrological pathways and landscape features. Further evaluations of differences and similarities in biogeochemical and hydrological responses among watersheds are needed to predict the impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.