Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.     

Neotectonic and lineament analysis of LANDSAT imagery for oil and mineral exploration—An example from Godavari delta—Eastern Ghats area

Visual Interpretation of LANDSAT imagery of Eastern Ghats-Godavari delta area on scale 1:1,000,000 on spectral bands 5 and 7 was attempted. A neotectonic and geomorphic map was prepared from these images showing among other features major and minor lineaments. The importance of some of these lineaments for sedimentation, oil migration and localisation of ore bodies is discussed.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Potential environmental issues of CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers: Geochemical results from the Frio-I Brine Pilot test,Texas, USA

Sedimentary basins in general, and deep saline aquifers in particular, are being investigated as possible repositories for large volumes of anthropogenic CO₂ that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes. To investigate the potential for the long-term storage of CO₂ in such aquifers, 1600 t of CO₂ were injected at 1500 m depth into a 24-m-thick “C” sandstone unit of the Frio Formation, a regional aquifer in the US Gulf Coast. Fluid samples obtained before CO₂ injection from the injection well and an observation well 30 m updip showed a Na–Ca–Cl type brine with ∼93,000 mg/L TDS at saturation with CH₄ at reservoir conditions; gas analyses showed that CH₄ comprised ∼95% of dissolved gas, but CO₂ was low at 0.3%. Following CO₂ breakthrough, 51 h after injection, samples showed sharp drops in pH (6.5–5.7), pronounced increases in alkalinity (100–3000 mg/L as HCO₃) and in Fe (30–1100 mg/L), a slug of very high DOC values, and significant shifts in the isotopic compositions of H₂O, DIC, and CH₄. These data, coupled with geochemical modeling, indicate corrosion of pipe and well casing as well as rapid dissolution of minerals, especially calcite and iron oxyhydroxides, both caused by lowered pH (initially ∼3.0 at subsurface conditions) of the brine in contact with supercritical CO₂.     

Crystal fractionation and partial melting in the petrogenesis of a Proterozoic high-MgO volcanic suite,Ungava, Québec

There is little concensus on the relative importance of crystal fractionation and differential partial melting to the chemical diversity observed within most types of volcanic suites. A resolution to this controversy is best sought in suites containing high MgO lavas such as the Chukotat volcanics of the Proterozoic Cape Smith foldbelt, Ungava, Quebec. The succession of this volcanic suite consists of repetitive sequences, each beginning with olivine-phyric basalt (19-12 wt% MgO), grading upwards to pyroxene-phyric basalt (12-8 wt% MgO) and then, in later sequences, to plagioclase-phyric basalt (7-4 wt% MgO). Only the olivine-phyric basalts have compositions capable of equilibrating with the upper mantle and are believed to represent parental magmas for the suite. The pyroxene-phyric and plagioclase-phyric basalts represent magmas derived from these parents by the crystal fractionation of olivine, with minor chromite, clinopyroxene and plagioclase. The order of extrusion in each volcanic sequence is interpreted to reflect a density effect in which successively lighter, more evolved magmas are erupted as hydrostatic pressure wanes. The pyroxene-phyric basalts appear to have evolved at high levels in the active part of the conduit system as the eruption of their parents was in progress. The plagioclase-phyric basalts may represent residual liquids expelled from isolated reservoirs along the crust-mantle interface during the late stages of volcanic activity.A positive correlation between FeO and MgO in the early, most basic olivine-phyric basalts is interpreted to reflect progressive adiabatic partial melting in the upper mantle. Although this complicates the chemistry, it is not a significant factor in the compositional diversification of the volcanic suite. The preservation of such compositional melting effects, however, suggests that the most basic olivine-phyric basalts represent primitive magmas. The trace element characteristics of these magmas, and their derivatives, indicate that the mantle source for the Chukotat volcanics had experienced a previous melting event.     

Synthetic coral-reef terraces and variations of Quaternary sea level

Coral-reef terraces on tectonically elevated coasts provide important data on variations of sea level. In this paper a systematic approach is presented for the construction of synthetic reef terraces. Idealized reef terraces are generated assuming a constant rate of tectonic uplift ν and a harmonic variation of sea level with amplitudeh_wo and period τ. It is further assumed that coral terraces grow only during periods of relative sea-level rise. The behavior is governed by the parameter u = τυ/2π h_wo. If u > 1 no reef terraces form. If 0.217 < u < 1 a discontinuous series of terraces form on the uplifting basement. If 0 < u < 0.217 the basement is covered with coral and a series of coral terraces forms on this coral. Uplifted coral-reef terraces on the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, compare reasonably well with terraces generated by our model with τ = 20,000 years andh_wo = 21.4 m. We also compare the observed terraces with model terraces using the paleo sea level inferred from¹⁸O/¹⁶O data. The observed terraces are qualitatively similar to those predicted using the oxygen isotope data, however, the model terraces require larger relative sea-level variations with a near 20,000 year period than those inferred directly from the¹⁸O/¹⁶O data.     

Calibration of the high-pressure cohesive strength meter (CSM)

Coastal erosion is an immense economic and social problem that has been receiving increased attention in recent years. A number of devices have been developed to determine the sediment stability in coastal areas: laboratory and field flumes; a range of different erosion devices; shear vanes and fall cone penetrometers. The cohesive strength meter (CSM) erosion device was developed to determine in situ the temporal and spatial variations in the erosion threshold of muddy intertidal sediments. Technological developments have enabled considerable improvements to be made to the original design over the last 15 years.     

Solitary wave generation dynamics at Luzon Strait

A high resolution modeling study is undertaken, with a 2.5-dimensional nonhydrostatic model, of the generation of internal waves induced by tidal motion over the ridges in Luzon Strait. The model is forced by the barotropic tidal components K1, M2, and O1. These tidal components, along with the initial density field, were extracted from data and models. As the barotropic tide moves over the Luzon Strait sills, there is a conversion of barotropic tidal energy into baroclinic tidal energy. Depressions are generated that propagate towards the Asian Seas International Acoustics Experiment (ASIAEX) test site on the Chinese continental shelf. Nonlinear effects steepen the depressions, frequency and amplitude dispersion set in, and disintegration into large amplitude solitary waves occurs. The effects of varying the initial density field, tidal component magnitudes, as well as adding a steady background current to represent the occasional excursions of the Kuroshio Current into the strait, are considered.Depressions are generated at each of the two sills in Luzon Strait which radiate away, steepening and evolving into internal solitary wave trains. Baroclinic fluxes of available potential energy, kinetic energy and linear are calculated for various parameter combinations. The solitary wave trains produced in the simulations generally consist of large amplitude wave trains alternating with small amplitude wave trains. During strong tidal flow, Kelvin–Helmholtz type instabilities can develop over the taller double-humped sill. The solitary waves propagating towards the ASIAEX test site have been observed to reach amplitudes of 120–250 m, depending on the tidal strength. ASIAEX observations indicate amplitudes up to 150 m and the Windy Island Experiment (WISE) measurements contain magnitudes over 200 m. The model results yield solitary wave amplitudes of 70–300 m and half widths of 0.60–3.25 km, depending on parameter values. These are in the range of observations. Measurements by Klymak et al. (2006), in the South China Sea, exhibit amplitudes of 170 m, half widths of 3 km and phase speeds of 2.9 m s^?1. Model predictions indicate that the solitary waves making up the wave packet each experience different background currents with strong near surface shear.The energy in the leading soliton of the large amplitude wave trains ranges between 1.8 and 9.0 GJ m^?1. The smaller value, produced using barotropic tidal currents based on the Oregon State University data base, is the same as the energy estimated to be in a solitary wave observed by Klymak et al. (2006). Estimates of the conversion of barotropic tidal energy into radiating internal wave energy yield conversion rates ranging between 3.6% and 8.3%.     

The theory of spontaneous emission by electrons during their motion along the quantizing magnetic field of a star

The quantum motion of non-relativistic and relativistic electrons in the presence of constant magnetic fields at the surfaces of magnetic stars, magnetic white dwarfs, and pulsars is considered. The quantizing magnetic-field strengths for charged particles with specified energies are determined. The quantum motion of these particles in a plane perpendicular to the magnetic field is accompanied by spontaneous radiation due to electron transitions from higher to lower discrete energy levels, right down to the ground state. In the non-relativistic case, this emission is monochromatic. In the non-relativistic case, various frequencies are emitted, but lie within an order of magnitude of each other. The electron kinetic energy along the magnetic field varies from zero to a maximum value, due to the one-dimensional character of the motion along the field, between each pair of potential barriers corresponding to the discrete energy levels. The results may be relevant to describing gamma-ray flares of pulsars.