Multi-model multi-analysis ensemble weather forecasting on the grid for the South Eastern Mediterranean Region

Weather forecasting is based on the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models that are able to perform the necessary calculations that describe/predict the major atmospheric processes. One common problem in weather forecasting derives from the uncertainty related to the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere. A solution to that problem is to perform in addition to “deterministic” forecasts, “stochastic” forecasts that provide an estimate of the prediction skill. A computationally feasible approach towards this aim is to perform “ensemble forecasts”. Indeed, in the frame of SEE-GRID-SCI EU funded project a Regional scale Multi-model, Multi-analysis ensemble forecasting system (REFS) was built and ported on the Grid infrastructure. REFS is based on the use of four limited area models (namely BOLAM, MM5, ETA, and NMM) that are run using a multitude of initial and boundary conditions over the Mediterranean. This paper presents the tools and procedures followed for developing this application at a production level.     

The influence of climate,hydrology and permafrost on Holocene peat accumulation at 3500 m on the eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

Peatland of the eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau lies at the convergence of the East Asian and Indian monsoon systems in eastern Asia. To understand the evolution of this peatland and its potential to provide new insights into the Holocene evolution of the East Asian monsoon a 6 m peat core was collected from the undisturbed central part of a peat deposit near Hongyuan. The age-depth profile was determined using 16 ¹⁴C-AMS age dates, the peat analysed for a range of environmental variables including carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen concentration, bulk density, δ¹³C and the associated spring water analysed for hydrogen and oxygen isotopes. The age-depth profile of the recovered peat sequence covers the period from 9.6 to 0.3 kyr BP and is linear indicating that the conditions governing productivity and decay varied little over the Holocene. Using changes in carbon density, organic carbon content and its δ¹³C, cold dry periods of permafrost characterised by low density and impeded surface drainage were identified. The low δ¹⁸O and δD values of the spring water emanating around the peat deposit, down to ?13.8 and ?102‰ (VSMOW), respectively, with an inverse relationship between electrical conductivity and isotopic composition indicate precipitation under colder and drier conditions relative to the present day. In view of the current annual mean air temperature of 1 °C this suggests conditions in the past have been conducive to permafrost. Inferred periods of permafrost correspond to independently recognised cold periods in other Holocene records from across China at 8.6, 8.2–7.8, 5.6–4.2, 3.1 and 1.8–1.5 kyr BP. The transition to a cold dry climate appears to be more rapid than the subsequent recovery and cold dry periods at Hongyuan are of longer duration than equivalent cold dry periods over central and eastern China. Light–dark banding peat on a scale of 15–30 years from 9.6 to 5.5 kyr BP may indicate a strong influence of decadal oscillations possibly the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a potential link between near simultaneous climatic changes in the northwest Pacific, ENSO, movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the East Asian Monsoon.     

Mapping groundwater storage variations with GRACE: a case study in Alberta,Canada

The applicability of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to adequately represent broad-scale patterns of groundwater storage (GWS) variations and observed trends in groundwater-monitoring well levels (GWWL) is examined in the Canadian province of Alberta. GWS variations are derived over Alberta for the period 2002–2014 using the Release 05 (RL05) monthly GRACE gravity models and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) land-surface models. Twelve mean monthly GWS variation maps are generated from the 139 monthly GWS variation grids to characterize the annual GWS variation pattern. These maps show that, overall, GWS increases from February to June, and decreases from July to October, and slightly increases from November to December. For 2002–2014, the GWS showed a positive trend which increases from west to east with a mean value of 12 mm/year over the province. The resulting GWS variations are validated using GWWLs in the province. For the purpose of validation, a GRACE total water storage (TWS)-based correlation criterion is introduced to identify groundwater wells which adequately represent the regional GWS variations. GWWLs at 36 wells were found to correlate with both the GRACE TWS and GWS variations. A factor f is defined to up-scale the GWWL variations at the identified wells to the GRACE-scale GWS variations. It is concluded that the GWS variations can be mapped by GRACE and the GLDAS models in some situations, thus demonstrating the conditions where GWS variations can be detected by GRACE in Alberta.     

Radiocarbon wiggle-match dating of proglacial lake sediments – Implications for the 8.2 ka event

The problem of insufficient age-control limits the utilisation of the 8.2 ka BP event for modelling freshwater forcing in climate change studies. High-resolution radiocarbon dates, magnetic susceptibility and lithostratigraphic evidence from a lake sediment core from Nedre Hervavatnet located at Sygnefjell in western Norway provide a record of the early Holocene. We use the method of radiocarbon wiggle-match dating of the lake sediments using the non-linear relationship between the ¹⁴C calibration curve and the consecutive accumulation order of the sample series in order to build a high-resolution age-model. The timing and duration of Holocene environmental changes is estimated using 38 AMS radiocarbon dates on terrestrial macrofossils, insects and chironomids covering the time period from 9750 to 1180 cal BP. Chironomids, Salix and Betula leaves produce the most consistent results. Sedimentological and physical properties of the core suggest that three meltwater events with high sedimentation rates are superimposed on a long-term trend with glacier retreat between 9750 and 8000 cal BP. The lake sediment sequence of Nedre Hervavatnet demonstrates the following: only a reliable high-resolution geochronology based on carefully selected terrestrial macrofossils allows the reconstruction of a more refined and complex environmental change history before and during the 8.2 ka event.     

Marine sampling by scuba diving. 3. Sampling procedures for measurement of mercury concentrations in estuarine waters and seawater

A method for sampling estuarine waters and seawater by scuba diving is described. Samples taken from the Krka River Estuary on the eastern Adriatic coast were analysed for mercury content using cold vapour atomic absorption spectrometry (CVAAS). Mercury levels as low as 1 ng dm⁻³ were determined and these are among the lowest values reported to date. A simple contamination free procedure for the preconditioning of sample containers in the sea was applied. Sampling of water by divers is particularly useful when the intermediate layer in an estuary has to be identified and sampled, as well as for obtaining detailed vertical concentration profiles for mercury and other trace elements.     

Durability Characterization of Marls from the Region of Dalmatia,Croatia

Durability is one of the most important engineering properties of weak and clay-bearing rocks. Weathering can induce a rapid change in rock material from initial properties to soil-like properties. The sensitivity of a rock type against weatherability is usually described by a durability parameter, such as the slake durability index. However, marl resistance is not detected satisfactorily by the durability indices by using slake durability test as suggested by ISRM for two wetting–drying cycles. The results of this study are obtained from samples of compact or laminated eocene marls from region of Dalmatia, Croatia. The samples were subjected to 4 cycles of slake durability, point load tests, determination of dry density, determination of carbonate content and absorption of water. The scatter of data suggests that strength probably has no influence on the durability of marls. On the other hand a separate group of marl samples have a second-cycle slake durability index higher than approximately 85%, and the durability of these samples is classified as “medium-high” to “high”, although the visual inspection of samples after testing, suggests that they should have “medium” to “low” durability classification. According to obtained results these samples of marl fulfil the criterions for the durability classification: a carbonate content lower than approximately 65%, a dry density lower than 2.4 Mg/m³, and values of water absorption higher than 5%.     

Distribution and mobility of heavy metals in paddy soils of the Kočani Field in Macedonia

Contamination of soils with heavy metals is widespread and poses a long-term risk to ecosystem health. Abandoned and active mining sites contain residues from ore-processing operations that are characterised by high concentrations of heavy metals. The distribution and mobility characteristics of heavy metals (As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn) in paddy soil samples from Kočani Field (Macedonia) using ICP-EAS and a sequential extraction procedure was evaluated. The results indicate that highly elevated concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn were detected in the paddy soil sample from location VII-2 in the vicinity of Zletovo mine and Zletovska river in the western part of Kočani Field, which drains the untreated acid mine waters and mine wastes from the active Zletovo mine. The degree of contamination based on index of geoaccumulation (I _geo) from strong to weak in the paddy soils samples is Pb > As > Cd > Zn > Cu. The mobility potential of heavy metals in all paddy soil samples increases in the order As < Cu < Pb < Zn < Cd. According to the results of the anthropogenic impact on the paddy soils, a further study on the heavy metal concentrations in rice and other edible crops, the remediation process of the paddy soils and a dietary study of the local population are needed.     

Paleo-evolution of the Black Sea watershed: sea level and water transport through the Bosporus Straits as an indicator of the Lateglacial–Holocene transition

The paleo-evolution of the Black Sea level during the Lateglacial–Holocene transition is still unclear, which motivates us to provide new estimates for that period based on the analysis of water budget. Hydrological conditions in the Black Sea catchment area are reconstructed here using water balance equation, available data, and constraints based on simple theory relating the runoff ratio with climatic characteristics. In order to estimate the impact of the aridity of climate we consider two alternative scenarios: (1) climate change under constant in time gradient in precipitation and evaporation over land and sea, and (2) climate change accounting for changes in the horizontal distribution of precipitation and evaporation. Hydrological data are compiled from available present-day data and paleo-observations. A number of sensitivity experiments is carried out revealing that the hydrological conditions in the Black Sea watershed should have evolved towards a very arid climate (similar to the present-day climate in the Caspian Sea area) in order to initiate a drop of sea level of ∼100 m below the sill depth of the Bosporus Straits, as speculated in some recent research. Estimates of sea level changes reveal a qualitative agreement with the coast-line evolution inferred from paleo-observations. The Younger Dryas draw down of the Black Sea starts at about 13.3 to 13 kyr BP, with a maximum low-stand of 104 m at 11.5 kyr BP. In an arid climate scenario the sea level reaches the outlet at about 8.8 to 7.4 kyr BP. Approximately at that time, Mediterranean sea level was about 10 m higher, making flooding events of the Black Sea possible. However, the nature and exact timing of the Holocene reconnection depends also on other (not well known) factors; one of them is the Bosporus sill depth, motivating further research in this field. Estimates of the water transport through the Bosporus Straits are also provided for the time of Lateglacial–Holocene transition.