可持续发展背景下的黑碳减排

 黑碳气溶胶是环境大气中浓度较低的一种气溶胶粒子组分,因其对光的吸收作用,及其对空气质量和人体健康的影响,而成为当前国际气候变化和环境研究中关注的热点问题之一。本文围绕黑碳的减排问题,介绍黑碳的来源、全球分布,讨论全球温室气体减排和区域空气质量控制对黑碳减排的影响,综述控制和改善燃烧条件、减少开放式生物质燃烧和黑碳封存等减排黑碳的措施。文章还分析了黑碳未能成为全球减排共识的原因,并对中国有关黑碳减排的政策选择提出了建议。     

用于研究冰雪晶生长的小型垂直过冷云风洞系统

研制了一个新的小型垂直过冷云风洞及其测试系统,实现了风、温数据自动采集,风洞内含水量测量方便易行.实验测量了温度-5—-18℃、含水量0.5—3.0g/m~3范围内冰雪晶生长的习性、下落速度、线性尺度增长率等诸参数.     

Dynamic and Numerical Study of Waves in the Tibetan Plateau Vortex简

In terms of its dynamics, The Tibetan Plateau Vortex （TPV） is assumed to be a vortex in the botmdary layer forced by diabatic heating and friction. In order to analyze the basic characteristics of waves in the vortex, the governing equations for the vortex were established in column coordinates with the balance of gradient wind. Based on this, the type of mixed waves and their dispersion characteristics were deduced by solving the linear model. Two numerical simulations with triple-nested domains--one idealized large-eddy simulation and one of a TPV that took place on 14 August 2006---were also carried out. The aim of the simulations was to validate the mixed wave deduced from the governing equations. The high-resolution model output data were analyzed and the results showed that the tangential flow field of the TPV in the form of center heating was cyclonic and convergent in the lower levels and anticyclonic and divergent in the upper levels. The simulations also showed that the vorticity of the vortex is uneven and might have shear flow along the radial direction. The changing vorticity causes the formation and spreading of vortex Rossby （VR） waves, and divergence will cause changes to the n~otion of the excitation and evolution of inertial gravity （IG） waves. Therefore, the vortex may contain what we call mixed ：inertial gravity-vortex Rossby （IG-VR） waves. It is suggested that some strongly developed TPVs should be studied in the future, because of their effects on weather in downstream areas.     

华东台风降水预报的一种集成

如何改进预报集成是当前业务预报上急需解决的问题。本文给台风降水定义了重解。根据重解对众多预报结果作自动筛选，最终由人机对话对少数近邻的预报结果作出集成。该集成能远离平均态， 适用于大的台风降水之预报。     

GRAPES_Meso背景误差特征及应用

基于2015年6月—2016年5月GRAPES_Meso有限区域中尺度数值预报模式产品,采用美国国家气象中心（NMC）方法和高斯函数拟合方案统计中国区域的背景误差和水平相关尺度随纬度、高度和季节的变化特征。结果表明:控制变量的背景误差与水平相关尺度不仅随高度和纬度有明显变化,其中非平衡Exner气压和比湿具有明显的局地性和季节变化特征。非平衡Exner气压的背景误差在青藏高原地区较大,且冬季最大,夏季最小。比湿背景误差在低纬度热带季风区较大,且夏季最大,冬季最小。非平衡Exner气压和比湿的水平相关尺度在冬季最大,夏季最小。同时文中采用随高度变化的水平相关尺度替换GRAPES-3DVar中单一尺度参数,1个月的分析和模式预报试验表明,6 h的位势高度预报在对流层有明显改进;风场分析及其12 h内的预报在平流层改进明显;对24 h不同量级降水的预报有显著正贡献,也显著改善24 h内的小雨、中雨和大雨的空报现象,明显改善12~24 h特大暴雨的漏报现象。     

长江中游城市群水资源承载力时空格局及耦合协调性

长江中游城市群是实施生态优先绿色发展战略的重点区域,从水资源承载系统内的水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个子系统中选取24项指标构建水资源承载力评价体系,综合运用改进熵权TOPSIS模型、空间自相关分析和耦合协调发展模型定量评价2012-2018年长江中游城市群水资源承载力时空变化过程及子系统间的耦合协调性.结果表明,（1）长江中游城市群整体水资源承载力水平表现为：缓慢上升（2012-2015年）、下降（2015-2017年）、再上升的趋势（2017-2018年）;（2）水资源承载力的空间差异不明显（仅2016年差异显著）,武汉城市圈水资源承载力的空间差异相对较大且呈现低值包围高值的空间分布特征;（3）各城市生态环境子系统承载力得分较为均衡,但其他子系统的承载力均差异较大;（4）影响水资源承载力的主要因素依次为城市污水处理厂日处理能力、人均GDP、城镇化率、第三产业比重和人均水资源量;（5）长江中游城市群水资源承载系统的耦合协调度总体处于中等水平,且水资源承载力与耦合协调度有极强的正相关关系.研究结果可为长江中游城市群水资源承载力改善及水资源优化配置提供依据.     

Influences of meteorological conditions on interannual variations of particulate matter pollution during winter in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei area

To investigate the interannual variations of particulate matter (PM) pollution in winter, this paper examines the pollution characteristics of PM with aerodynamic diameters of less than 2.5 and 10 μm (i.e., PM_2.5 and PM₁₀), and their relationship to meteorological conditions over the Beijing municipality, Tianjin municipality, and Hebei Province—an area called Jing–Jin–Ji (JJJ, hereinafter)—in December 2013–16. The meteorological conditions during this period are also analyzed. The regional average concentrations of PM_2.5 (PM₁₀) over the JJJ area during this period were 148.6 (236.4), 100.1 (166.4), 140.5 (204.5), and 141.7 (203.1) μg m^–3, respectively. The high occurrence frequencies of cold air outbreaks, a strong Siberian high, high wind speeds and boundary layer height, and low temperature and relative humidity, were direct meteorological causes of the low PM concentration in December 2014. A combined analysis of PM pollution and meteorological conditions implied that control measures have resulted in an effective improvement in air quality. Using the same emissions inventory in December 2013–16, a modeling analysis showed emissions of PM_2.5 to decrease by 12.7%, 8.6%, and 8.3% in December 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively, each compared with the previous year, over the JJJ area.     

Relationship between atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau and precipitation in the Sichuan–Chongqing region during summer

NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and a 47-yr daily precipitation dataset from a network of 42 rain gauges are used to analyze the atmospheric heat source (<Q₁>) anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its influence on the summer precipitation anomaly in the Sichuan–Chongqing region. Results show that the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is a major factor affecting summer precipitation in the Sichuan–Chongqing region. When the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is strengthened, the South Asian high shifts further than normal to the south and east, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts further than normal to the south and west, and the Indian low weakens. This benefits the transport of warm moist air from the low latitude oceans to the Sichuan–Chongqing region. Correspondingly, in the high latitudes, two ridges and one trough form, which lead to cool air moving southward. These two air masses converge over the Sichuan–Chongqing region, leading to significant precipitation. In contrast, when the vertical advection of <Q₁> over the central TP is weakened, the South Asian high moves to the north and west, the subtropical high moves eastward and northward, and the Indian low strengthens. This circulation pattern is unfavorable for warm air advection from the south to the Sichuan–Chongqing region, and the cool air further north cannot move southward because of the presence of two troughs and one ridge at high latitude. Thus, ascent over the Sichuan–Chongqing region is weakened, resulting in less precipitation.     

Changes in extreme daily mean temperatures in summer in eastern China during 1955–2000

Summary Statistical characteristics of extremely low and high daily mean temperatures in summer (June, July and August) in eastern China have been investigated. The extremely low temperatures are defined as those days with temperatures not exceeding the 10th percentile with respect to the reference period of 1961–90; similarly the extremely high temperatures are defined as those exceeding the 90th percentile. There are well-defined spatial structures in trends of the frequency of extremely low temperatures as well as of high temperature extremes. In the north region (i.e. northern and northeastern China) the linear trends of frequency of low and high temperature extremes are –1.09 and +1.23 days/10yr, respectively. For the southern portion of the study area, the trends are –1.32 and –2.32 days/10yr. Taking the study area as a whole, the linear trends are –0.76 days/10yr and +1.08 days/10yr, respectively. The changes of frequency of extreme temperatures are mainly related to the shift in the temperature means. There is a dominant anticyclonic pattern in the lower- to middle troposphere over East Asia in association with warmer conditions in the north region. For the south region there is a jump-like change in the summer mean temperature and the extreme temperature events in around 1976. The large-scale northwestern Pacific subtropical high plays an important role in the jump-like changes of the temperature extremes.     

南亚、东南亚地区大气环流季节突变的多年状况

在已有研究成果的基础上，本文利用FGGE-IIIb资料及欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）1980至1988年七层全球分析资料，分析了1979至1988年南亚、东南亚地区由冬至夏大气环流季节突变的状况。利用与这一地区主要天气系统密切相关的某些大气环流指标来描述该地区的季节突变，并根据这些指标的逐候演变、信噪比及候平均环流形势确定了突变发生的时段。在此基础上，本文讨论了季节突变的多年状况，用多年资料证实了南亚、东南亚地区由冬至夏季节演变过程存在着两次突变，分析了突变方式在区域间、高低层间及年际间的差异。