波向对变风向的响应

由能量平衡方程导出匀质波场局地风生浪平均波向对变风向的响应。结果表明,响应的时间尺度不但取决于波能的成长速率,还取决于方向分布函数和风向与平均波向之夹角。按文圣常提出的在局地风作用下的标准风浪成长曲线,对其响应时间尺度的定量估计结果表明,本文提出的无因次响应时间尺度与无因次能量和无固次峰频率的关系,与现已提出的模式比较与实测更符合。     

Land subsidence prediction in Beijing based on PS-InSAR technique and improved Grey-Markov model

Land subsidence induced by excessive groundwater withdrawal has caused serious social, geological, and environmental problems in Beijing. Rapid increases in population and economic development have aggravated the situation. Monitoring and prediction of ground settlement is important to mitigate these hazards. In this study, we combined persistent-scatterer interferometric synthetic aperture radar with Grey system theory to monitor and predict land subsidence in the Beijing plain. Land subsidence during 2003–2014 was determined based on 39 ENVISAT advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR) images and 27 RadarSat-2 images. Results were consistent with global positioning system, leveling measurements at the point level and TerraSAR-X subsidence maps at the regional level. The average deformation rate in the line-of-sight was from ?124 to 7 mm/year. To predict future subsidence, the time-series deformation was used to build a prediction model based on an improved Grey-Markov model (IGMM), which adapted the conventional GM(1,1) model by utilizing rolling mechanism and integrating a k-means clustering method in Markov-chain state interval partitioning. Evaluation of the IGMM at both point level and regional scale showed good accuracy (root-mean-square error <3 mm; R² = 0.94 and 0.91). Finally, land subsidence in 2015–2016 was predicted, and the maximum cumulative deformation will reach 1717 mm by the end of 2016. The promising results indicate that this method can be used as an alternative to the conventional numerical and empirical models for short-term prediction when there is lack of detailed geological or hydraulic information.     

Using Spatial Analysis to Understand the Spatial Heterogeneity of Disability Employment in China

During the formulation of employment disability policy, policymakers are often interested in regional variations of disability employment. Decision‐makers are required to distinguish between various geographical factors. However, few previous studies take spatial heterogeneity into account and most of them conducted only a qualitative analysis. Geographical detectors based on spatial variation analyses of identified factors were applied in the study to establish connections between regional features and the disability employment rate, and to identify the city groups with significantly higher and lower percentage rates of disability employment. It is the first application of spatial statistics in studying the employment problem of the disabled. The findings can help the government formulate reasonable adjustments to both job opportunities for, and work roles of, disabled people.     

Multi-scheme corrected dynamic–analogue prediction of summer precipitation in northeastern China based on BCC_CSM

Based on summer precipitation hindcasts for 1991–2013 produced by the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM), the relationship between precipitation prediction error in northeastern China (NEC) and global sea surface temperature is analyzed, and dynamic–analogue prediction is carried out to improve the summer precipitation prediction skill of BCC_CSM, through taking care of model historical analogue prediction error in the real-time output. Seven correction schemes such as the systematic bias correction, pure statistical correction, dynamic–analogue correction, and so on, are designed and compared. Independent hindcast results show that the 5-yr average anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of summer precipitation is respectively improved from –0.13/0.15 to 0.16/0.24 for 2009–13/1991–95 when using the equally weighted dynamic–analogue correction in the BCC_CSM prediction, which takes the arithmetical mean of the correction based on regional average error and that on grid point error. In addition, probabilistic prediction using the results from the multiple correction schemes is also performed and it leads to further improved 5-yr average prediction accuracy.     

基于Android手机的作物苗情灾情速报系统设计与开发

为解决田间调查时因信息沟通手段与渠道的制约而产生的苗情灾情报送迟滞这一瓶颈问题,基于Android手机平台,构建了一种作物苗情灾情快速上报系统。系统由服务器端和客户端两部分组成。服务器端主要负责苗情灾情数据的存储与下载,研究中采用HTTP文件服务器,可通过设置IP、端口及用户名、密码和共享路径等实现远程文件的上传与下载;客户端主要实现苗情灾情的采集与上传,研究中依托手机自带拍照、GPS定位、数据传输等功能,基于Android编程技术对系统的功能和界面进行了设计。系统主要功能包括苗情灾情固定与非固定地块的实时采集、汇总与远程服务端(云平台)传输。由于系统基于Android设备开发,有效降低了常规硬件部件的费用,最大限度地降低使用成本。经过2年多的初步测试使用表明,系统具有较好的稳定性及时效性,苗情灾情速报功能可满足市级管理人员的基本需求,可实现大面积苗情灾情数据的快速统计、实时上报,从而为获取实时农情数据和开展灾后救援工作提供可靠支撑。     

RY-3溶氧仪测试结果分析

给出了作者研制的ＲＹ－３溶解氧测试仪的银极电位与美国 ＹＳＩ－５８溶氧仪 的银极电位（在海水中均以甘汞电极为参比电极）对比测试的误差分析，对ＲＹ－３溶 氧仪与ＹＳＩ－５８溶氧仪现场对比测试的结果进行误差分析。并介绍了国家标准物质 研究中心和青岛计量测试所对ＲＹ－３溶氧仪的测试结果。     

长江口水下淡水资源及其供水意义

上海地区发育的含水砂层均为长江水系古河道，其一直延伸至长江口、杭州湾水域，尤以埋深１７０ｍ以下的含水层分布更广，成为水下淡水资源的赋存场所。初勘结果表明，其水量丰富、水质优良，从而为海上及岛屿供水提供了新途径。     

中国北方2021年3月中旬持续性沙尘天气的特征及其成因

沙尘天气是多发于中国北方春季的灾害性天气,严重危害农业生产、交通运输、空气质量和人民的生命财产安全,长期受到社会各界的广泛关注。利用多源多尺度数据,采用天气学分析、物理量诊断、轨迹分析等方法对2021年3月中旬西北地区东部一次持续性沙尘重污染天气的成因进行了深入分析。结果表明：（1）受强烈发展的蒙古气旋影响,蒙古国南部及中国内蒙古中西部地区于3月14日首先出现强沙尘暴天气,并将沙尘传输至中国西北、华北、东北一带,西北东部的沙尘天气维持达到5 d。（2）沙尘天气维持期,西北东部中低层以弱上升运动为主,大气层结稳定,且西北东部不断有弱锋生发展,不利于沙尘的沉降;自北向南分布的银川、中卫、兰州3站的垂直螺旋度的波动与污染浓度的变化基本一致;混合层高度较其气候平均值明显偏低,不利于大气湍流发展。（3）此次影响西北东部的沙尘主要由蒙古国输入,近20年中蒙边境、蒙古国南部的植被减少可能是此次沙尘天气的沙源主要来自蒙古国南部的原因。     

Driving force and changing trends of vegetation phenology in the Loess Plateau of China from 2000 to 2010

Changes in vegetation phenology are key indicators of the response of ecosystems to climate change. Therefore, knowledge of growing seasons is essential to predict ecosystem changes, especially for regions with a fragile ecosystem such as the Loess Plateau. In this study, based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, we estimated and analyzed the vegetation phenology in the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2010 for the beginning, length, and end of the growing season, measuring changes in trends and their relationship to climatic factors. The results show that for 54.84% of the vegetation, the trend was an advancement of the beginning of the growing season (BGS), while for 67.64% the trend was a delay in the end of the growing season (EGS). The length of the growing season (LGS) was extended for 66.28% of the vegetation in the plateau. While the temperature is important for the vegetation to begin the growing season in this region, warmer climate may lead to drought and can become a limiting factor for vegetation growth. We found that increased precipitation benefits the advancement of the BGS in this area. Areas with a delayed EGS indicated that the appropriate temperature and rainfall in autumn or winter enhanced photosynthesis and extended the growth process. A positive correlation with precipitation was found for 76.53% of the areas with an extended LGS, indicating that precipitation is one of the key factors in changes in the vegetation phenology in this water-limited region. Precipitation plays an important role in determining the phenological activities of the vegetation in arid and semiarid areas, such as the Loess Plateau. The extended growing season will significantly influence both the vegetation productivity and the carbon fixation capacity in this region.     

黏土失水开裂演化过程的影响试验

裂隙性为黏土的主要特性之一。探讨黏土的开裂规律,对于分析地裂缝成因机理,开展预测研究具有重要的理论意义和工程价值。通过室内试验,研究了黏土干燥收缩过程中含水率的变化规律。分别制备不同厚度、宽度、含砂量的试样,获得不同条件下黏土失水过程含水率的变化规律。在试验所设定的条件下,土体开裂时的含水率很接近,平均约为33.48%;当样品宽度不变时,土层越厚,含水率变化速率越小;当样品厚度相同时,宽度不同,含水率变化速率几乎相同;当厚度、宽度都相同时,含水率变化速率随含砂量的增大而减小。对于同一样品,土体厚度越大,样品裂隙率越小;土体厚度相同时,样品的裂隙率随着样品宽度的增大先减小后增大,且样品的开裂周期与样品的裂隙率同步变化。