Rainfall anomaly prediction using statistical downscaling in a multimodel superensemble over tropical South America

This study addresses the predictability of rainfall variations over South America and the Amazon basin. A primary factor leading to model inaccuracy in precipitation forecasts is the coarse resolution data utilized by coupled models during the training phase. By using MERRA reanalysis and statistical downscaling along with the superensemble methodology, it is possible to obtain more precise forecast of rainfall anomalies over tropical South America during austral fall. Selective inclusion (and exclusion) of member models also allows for increased accuracy of superensemble forecasts. The use of coupled atmospheric–ocean numerical models to predict the rainfall anomalies has had mixed results. Improvement in individual member models is also possible on smaller spatial scales and in regions where substantial topographical changes were not handled well under original model initial conditions. The combination of downscaling and superensemble methodologies with other research methods presents the potential opportunity for increased accuracy not only in seasonal forecasts but on shorter temporal scales as well.     

The solubility of SO2 and the dissociation of H2SO3 in NaCl solutions

The pK ₁ ^* and pK ₂ ^* of H₂SO₃ have been determined in NaCl solutions as a function of ionic strength (0.1 to 6 m) and temperature (5 and 25 °C). The extrapolated values in water were found to be in good agreement with literature data. The experimental results have been used to determine the Pitzer interaction parameters for SO₂, HSO ₃ ^- and SO ₃ ^- in NaCl solutions. The resultant parameters for NaHSO₃ and Na₂SO₃ were found to be in reasonable agreement with the values for NaHSO₄ and Na₂SO₄. It, thus, seems reasonable to assume that the interactions of Mg²⁺ and Ca²⁺ with HSO ₃ ^- and SO ₃ ^- can be estimated from the values with HSO ₄ ^- and SO ₄ ^- until experimental values are available. Measurements of pK ₁ ^* and pK ₂ ^* in artificial seawater were found to be in good agreement with the calculated values using the derived Pitzer parameters. It is, thus, possible to make reasonable estimates of the activity coefficients of HSO ₃ ^- and SO ₃ ^- ions and pK ₁ ^* and pK ₂ ^* for the ionization of H₂SO₃ in marine aerosols.     

Catchment-scale observations at the Niwot Ridge long-term ecological research site

The Niwot Ridge and Green Lakes Valley (NWT) long-term ecological research (LTER) site collects environmental observations spanning both alpine and subalpine regimes. The first observations began in 1952 and have since expanded to nearly 300 available datasets over an area of 99 km² within the north-central Colorado Rocky Mountains that include hydrological (n = 101), biological (n = 79), biogeochemical (n = 62), and geographical (n = 56) observations. The NWT LTER database is well suited to support hydrologic investigations that require long-term and interdisciplinary data sets. Experimentation and data collection at the NWT LTER are designed to characterize ecological responses of high-mountain environments to changes in climate, nutrients, and water availability. In addition to the continuation of the many legacy NWT datasets, expansion of the breadth and utility of the NWT LTER database is driven by new initiatives including (a) a catchment-scale sensor network of soil moisture, temperature, humidity, and snow-depth observations to understand hydrologic connectivity and (b) snow-albedo alteration experiments using black sand to evaluate the effects of snow-disappearance on ecosystems. Together, these observational and experimental datasets provide a substantial foundation for hydrologic studies seeking to understand and predict changes to catchment and local-scale process interactions.     

Neoproterozoic evolution and Cambrian reworking of ultrahigh temperature granulites in the Eastern Ghats Province,India

The time‐scales and P–T conditions recorded by granulite facies metamorphic rocks permit inferences about the geodynamic regime in which they formed. Two compositionally heterogeneous cordierite–spinel‐bearing granulites from Vizianagaram, Eastern Ghats Province (EGP), India, were investigated to provide P–T–time constraints using petrography, phase equilibrium modelling, U–Pb geochronology, the rare earth element composition of zircon and monazite, and Ti‐in‐zircon thermometry. These ultrahigh temperature (UHT) granulites preserve discrete compositional layering in which different inferred peak assemblages are developed, including layers bearing garnet–sillimanite–spinel, and others bearing orthopyroxene–sillimanite–spinel. These mineral associations cannot be reproduced by phase equilibrium modelling of whole‐rock compositions, indicating that the samples became domainal on a scale less than that of a thin section, even at UHT conditions. Calculation of the P–T stability fields for six compositional domains within which the main rock‐forming minerals are considered to have attained equilibrium suggests peak metamorphic conditions of ~6.8–8.3 kbar at ~1,000°C. In most of these domains, the subsequent evolution resulted in the growth of cordierite and final crystallization of melt at an elevated (residual) H₂O‐undersaturated solidus, consistent with <1 kbar of decompression. Concordant U–Pb ages obtained by SHRIMP from zircon (spread 1,050–800 Ma) and monazite (spread 950–800 Ma) demonstrate that crystallization of these minerals occurred during an interval of c. 250 Ma. By combining LA‐ICP‐MS U–Pb zircon ages with Ti‐in‐zircon temperatures from the same analysis sites, we show that the crust may have remained above 900°C for a minimum of c. 120 Ma between c. 1,000 and c. 880 Ma. Overall, the results suggest that, in the interval 1,050 to 800 Ma, the evolution of the Vizianagaram granulites culminated with UHT conditions from c. 1,000 Ma to c. 880 Ma, associated with minor decompression, before further zircon crystallization at c. 880–800 Ma during cooling to the solidus. However, these rocks are adjacent to the Paderu–Anantagiri–Salur crustal block to the NW that experienced counterclockwise P–T–t paths, and records similar UHT peak metamorphic conditions (7–8 kbar, ~950°C) followed by near‐isobaric cooling, and has a similar chronology during the Neoproterozoic. The limited decompression inferred at Vizianagaram may be explained by partial exhumation due to thrusting of this crustal block over the adjacent Paderu–Anantagiri–Salur crustal block. The residual granulites in both blocks have high concentrations of heat‐producing elements and likely remained hot at mid‐crustal depths throughout a period of relative tectonic quiescence in the interval 800–550 Ma. During the Cambrian Period, the EGP was located in the hinterland of the Denman–Pinjarra–Prydz orogen. A later concordant population of zircon dated at 511 ± 6 Ma records crystallization at temperatures of ~810°C. This age may record a low‐degree of melting due to limited influx of fluid into hot, weak crust in response to convergence of the Crohn craton with a composite orogenic hinterland comprising the Rayner terrane, EGP, and cratonic India.     

Closed system behaviour of argon in osumilite records protracted high‐T metamorphism within the Rogaland–Vest Agder Sector,Norway

Here, we present results of the first ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of osumilite, a high‐T mineral that occurs in some volcanic and high‐grade metamorphic rocks. The metamorphic osumilite studied here is from a metapelitic rock within the Rogaland–Vest Agder Sector, Norway, an area that experienced regional granulite facies metamorphism and subsequent contact metamorphism between 1,100 Ma and 850 Ma. The large grain size (~1 cm) of osumilite in the studied rock, which preserves a nominally anhydrous assemblage, increases the potential for large portions of individual grains to have remained essentially unaffected by the effects of diffusive argon loss, potentially preserving prograde ages. Step‐heating diffusion experiments yielded a maximum activation energy of ~461 kJ/mol and a pre‐exponential factor of ~8.34 × 10⁸ cm²/s for Ar diffusion in osumilite. These parameters correspond to a relatively high closure temperature of ~620°C for a cooling rate of 10°C/Ma in an osumilite crystal with a 175 µm radius. Fragments of osumilite separated from the sample preserve a range of ages between c. 1,070 and 860 Ma. The oldest ages are inferred to date the growth of coarse‐grained osumilite during prograde granulite facies regional metamorphism, which pre‐date contact metamorphism that has historically been ascribed to the growth of osumilite in the region. The majority of fragments record ages between c. 920 and 860 Ma, inferred to reflect the growth of osumilite and/or diffusive argon loss during contact metamorphism. The retention of old ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates was facilitated by the low diffusivity of Ar in osumilite (i.e. a closed system), large grain sizes, and anhydrous metamorphic conditions. The ability to date osumilite with the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method provides a valuable new thermochronometer that may constrain the timing and duration of high‐T magmatic and metamorphic events.     

Some Polluting Effects of Small-Scale Industrial Production in theCentral Region of Ghana

Environmental impact assessments in developing countries are generally required for new large and medium-scale enterprises. However, a larger proportion of production takes place in the very small and micro-scale sector. This sector is characterised by low incomes and high levels of illiteracyamong the operators, both of which limit awareness of the polluting effects of their activities. The paper examines the environmental impacts of small-scale alcohol distilleries in the rural areas of the Central region of Ghana. The distillers covered in the study lacked information about the pollutionthey caused and continued to discharge large volumes of stillage (hot wastewater) into adjoining streams which are important sources of drinking water supply in rural Ghana. The discharge of waste products from the distilleries polluted the streams with negative implications for aquatic life as well as human health.     

Nonlinear Three-dimensional Inversion of Low-frequency Scattered Elastic Waves

—We investigate a new nonlinear inversion method for low frequencies to determine the bulk and shear modulus as well as the material density and the location of subsurface inhomogeneities. The solution is a direct exact nonlinear inversion of single scattered waves containing near- and far-field terms for incident P and scattered P and S waves, allowing for inversion of parameters in the vicinity and at distance from the sources and receivers. Because the approach is based on single scattering theory, the range of application includes single strong scattering anomalies of various sizes like magma chambers, gas- or fluid-filled cavities, or buried near-surface obstacles. The replacement of the material properties by a new set of parameters, referred to as scattering factors, allows the inverse problem to be solved analytically. The nonlinear nature of the scattering problem is investigated and implications for the inversion process are discussed. The deviations in the elastic parameters as a function of the scattering factors show a strong asymmetry about zero, and therefore linearized approximations will perform differently, depending on the sign of the perturbation. Based on the low frequency (Rayleigh) approximation, we introduce and evaluate a pair of approximations (Mie) derived by numerical and analytical integration of the Rayleigh approximation. Both approximations are based on the underlying principle of subdividing the inhomogeneities into a number of small noninteracting parts and subsequent integration over the total volume, thus increasing the Rayleigh limit and producing better resolution of the parameter estimates during the inversion. The two Mie approximations, when evaluated as a function of scattering angle and distance, produce similar results in the mid- and far-field of the inhomogeneity and reveal better resolution than the Rayleigh approximation. For three anomalies of ± 50% in bulk modulus, shear modulus, and density, the relative error between the exact solution and the two Mie approximations remains below 10%, 20%, and 30%, respectively, for values of k _p R < 3.0, where R is the radius of the heterogeneity. However, smaller errors for individual cases are found for values up to k _p R≈ 4.5. The performance of the inversion based on the analytically and the numerically integrated Mie approximation is tested for single parameter perturbations, revealing reliable and stable inversion results for the bulk and the shear modulus, reasonable results for the density, and crosstalk between the shear modulus and the density. The results show well-defined locations of the anomalies and slight deviations in the estimates of their magnitudes, which can be explained by amplitude and phase deviations between the analytical solution used for forward modeling and the approximations used for the inversion. The analytical Mie approximation provides a fast means to estimate elastic parameters compared to the more time consuming numerically integrated approximation, while the latter can be applied to more arbitrarily shaped inhomogeneities.     

Origin of pockmarks and chimney structures on the flanks of the Storegga Slide,offshore Norway

Seafloor pockmarks and subsurface chimney structures are common on the Norwegian continental margin north of the Storegga Slide scar. Such features are generally inferred to be associated with fluid expulsion, and imply overpressures in the subsurface. Six long gravity and piston cores taken from the interior of three pockmarks were compared with four other cores taken from the same area but outside the pockmarks, in order to elucidate the origins and stratigraphy of these features and their possible association with the Storegga Slide event. Sulfate gradients in cores from within pockmarks are less steep than those in cores from outside the pockmarks, which indicates that the flux of methane to the seafloor is presently smaller within the pockmarks than in the adjacent undisturbed sediments. This suggests that these subsurface chimneys are not fluid flow conduits lined with gas hydrate. Methane-derived authigenic carbonates and Bathymodiolus shells obtained from a pockmark at >6.3 m below the seafloor indicate that methane was previously available to support a chemosynthetic community within the pockmark. AMS ¹⁴C measurements of planktonic Foraminifera overlying and interlayered with the shell-bearing sediment indicate that methane was present on the seafloor within the pockmark prior to 14 ka ¹⁴C years b.p., i.e., well before the last major Storegga Slide event (7.2 ka ¹⁴C years b.p., or 8.2 ka calendar years b.p.). These observations provide evidence that overpressured fluids existed within the continental margin sediments off Norway during the last major advance of Pleistocene glaciation.