European blocking and Atlantic jet stream variability in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the CMCC-CMS climate model

The relationship between atmospheric blocking over Europe and the Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream is investigated in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and in a climate model. This is carried out using a bidimensional blocking index based on geopotential height and a diagnostic providing daily latitudinal position and strength of the jet stream. It is shown that European Blocking (EB) is not decoupled from the jet stream but it is mainly associated with its poleward displacements. Moreover, the whole blocking area placed on the equatorward side of the jet stream, broadly ranging from Azores up to Scandinavia, emerges as associated with poleward jet displacements. The diagnostics are hence applied to two different climate model simulations in order to evaluate the biases in the jet stream and in the blocking representation. This analysis highlights large underestimation of EB, typical feature of general circulation models. Interestingly, observed blocking and jet biases over the Euro-Atlantic area are consistent with the blocking-jet relationship observed in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. Finally, the importance of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is investigated showing that realistic SSTs can reduce the bias in the jet stream variability but not in the frequency of EB. We conclude highlighting that blocking-related diagnostics can provide more information about the Euro-Atlantic variability than diagnostics simply based on the Atlantic jet stream.     

Improving decision-making activities for meningitis and malaria

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community’s capacity to understand, use and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular meningitis and malaria. In this paper, we present the new and improved products that have been developed for: (i) estimating dust aerosol for forecasting risks of meningitis and (ii) for monitoring temperature and rainfall and integrating them into a vectorial capacity model for forecasting risks of malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map Room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.     

Abundance,distribution and habitat preference of Hippocampus guttulatus and Hippocampus hippocampus in a semi‐enclosed central Mediterranean marine area

Population abundance, distribution and habitat preference of the Mediterranean sympatric seahorses Hippocampus guttulatus and Hippocampus hippocampus were investigated in a semi‐enclosed sea system (Apulian coast, Ionian Sea). A total of 242 individuals of seahorses were sighted in the 11 transects surveyed in summer 2011. Hippocampus guttulatus (n = 225) were 14 times more abundant than H. hippocampus (17). The mean abundance of H. guttulatus for all the pooled sites was 0.018 m^?2 (SE ± 0.003) ranging from a maximum of 0.035 (SE ± 0.007) to a minimum of 0.008 (SE ± 0.002). The size structure of long‐snouted seahorse shows a population ranging from 7 to 14 cm (SL) with a peak at 10 cm (TL). Juveniles (96.0 ± 8.0 mm) represent a significant fraction of the population, accounting more than 21% of the sighted individuals. In Mar Piccolo, H. guttulatus is able to shelter both in monotonous habitats, including the algal beds, and diversified ones, such as the rich filter‐feeder communities that colonize hard substrates. By contrast, H. hippocampus is mainly associated with habitats of low complexity. Today, the Mar Piccolo di Taranto is among the most heavily polluted water bodies in South Italy, with trace metals, hydrocarbons, pesticides and organic wastes affecting both biotic and abiotic matrices. However, despite the high level of degradation, the presence of a large mussel farm has avoided the impact of towed fishing gears, and eutrophication of water bodies has ensured a high trophic level that supports large crustacean populations, potential prey for seahorses.     

Improving Bayesian analysis for LISA Pathfinder using an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo method

We present a parameter estimation procedure based on a Bayesian framework by applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to the calibration of the dynamical parameters of the LISA Pathfinder satellite. The method is based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and a two-stage annealing treatment in order to ensure an effective exploration of the parameter space at the beginning of the chain. We compare two versions of the algorithm with an application to a LISA Pathfinder data analysis problem. The two algorithms share the same heating strategy but with one moving in coordinate directions using proposals from a multivariate Gaussian distribution, while the other uses the natural logarithm of some parameters and proposes jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix. The algorithm proposing jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix demonstrates a higher acceptance rate and a slightly better convergence towards the equilibrium parameter distributions in the application to LISA Pathfinder data. For this experiment, we return parameter values that are all within ～1σ of the injected values. When we analyse the accuracy of our parameter estimation in terms of the effect they have on the force-per-unit of mass noise, we find that the induced errors are three orders of magnitude less than the expected experimental uncertainty in the power spectral density.     

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Apulian Southern Apennine: heuristic vs. statistical methods

In this paper, a bivariate-heuristic model (modified Stevenson’s method) and two multivariate statistical procedures (discriminant analysis and logistic regression) were used in order to assess and map landslide susceptibility in the north-western side of Daunia region (Apulia, Southern Italy). The whole Daunia region is characterized by complex and composite landslides, which are located on clayey slopes, near urban centers, affecting structures and infrastructures. The high predisposition to landsliding of the Daunia hillslopes is related to the very poor strength properties of clayey formations. The comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility using different methods, on the same test site and with the same inventory map allowed understanding the dependence of the results from the dataset and the capability of models under different levels of use, from expert to simple operator. By comparing the performance of the three models through the success rate curves, it emerges that the simple modified Stevenson’s method produces reliable outcomes, comparable with those deriving from more complex multivariate statistical models. This result is related to the characteristics of clayey slopes, in which the landslide occurrence is so much controlled by the poor strength properties of the clayey formations that the multivariate analysis of a large set of morphometric, geological and land-use variables results to be somehow superfluous. This suggests that, for clayey slopes, a simple, easy-to-manage bivariate-heuristic model based on expert opinion can be used with reliable results.     

Petrogenesis of Quebrada de la Mina and Altar North porphyries (Cordillera of San Juan,Argentina): Crustal assimilation and metallogenic implications

We investigate the geology of Altar North (Cu–Au) and Quebrada de la Mina (Au) porphyry deposits located in San Juan Province (Argentina), close to the large Altar porphyry copper deposit (995 Mt, 0.35% Cu, 0.083 g/t Au), to present constraints on the magmatic processes that occurred in the parental magma chambers of these magmatic-hydrothermal systems. Altar North deposit comprises a plagioclase-amphibole-phyric dacite intrusion (Altar North barren porphyry) and a plagioclase-amphibole-biotite-phyric dacite stock (Altar North mineralized porphyry, 11.98 ± 0.19 Ma). In Quebrada de la Mina, a plagioclase-amphibole-biotite-quartz-phyric dacite stock (QDM porphyry, 11.91 ± 0.33 Ma) crops out. High Sr/Y ratios (92–142) and amphibole compositions of Altar North barren and QDM porphyries reflect high magmatic oxidation states (fO₂ = NNO +1.1 to +1.6) and high fH₂O conditions in their magmas. Zones and rims enriched in anorthite (An_37–48), SrO (0.22–0.33 wt.%) and FeO (0.21–0.37 wt.%) in plagioclase phenocrysts are evidences of magmatic recharge processes in the magma chambers. Altar North and Quebrada de la Mina intrusions have relatively homogeneous isotopic compositions (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(t) = 0.70450–0.70466, ε_Nd(t) = +0.2 to +1.2) consistent with mixed mantle and crust contributions in their magmas. Higher Pb isotopes ratios (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.6276–15.6294) of these intrusions compared to other porphyries of the district, reflect an increase in the assimilation of high radiogenic Pb components in the magmas. Ages of zircon xenocrysts (297, 210, 204, 69 Ma) revealed that the magmas have experienced assimilation of Miocene, Cretaceous, Triassic and Carboniferous crustal rocks.Fluids that precipitated sulfides in the Altar deposit may have remobilized Pb from the host rocks, as indicated by the ore minerals being more radiogenic (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb = 15.6243–15.6269) than their host intrusions. Au/Cu ratio in Altar porphyries (average Au/Cu ratio of 0.14 × 10^?4 by weight in Altar Central) is higher than in the giant Miocene porphyry deposits located to the south: Los Pelambres, Río Blanco and Los Bronces (Chile) and Pachón (Argentina). We suggest that the increase in Au content in the porphyries of this region could be linked to the assimilation of high radiogenic Pb components in the magmas within these long-lived maturation systems.     

The MED-SUV virtual research environment for enabling the GEO Geohazard supersites in Italy

This paper presents the Virtual Research Environment (VRE) enabling two European GEO Geohazard Supersites in Italy. According to GEO (Group on Earth Observation) vision, Geohazard Supersites provide access to spaceborne and in-situ geophysical data and models for selected sites prone to natural hazards –noticeably, earthquakes and volcano eruptions. The VRE was implemented in the framework of the Mediterranean Supersite Volcanoes (MED-SUV) project, funded by the European Commission. MED-SUV realized one of the European supersite demonstrators covering the two Permanent Supersites selected in Italy: Mt. Etna and Campi Flegrei/Vesuvius. The MED-SUV VRE provides advanced services for heterogeneous data and information management and sharing. MED-SUV started identifying the main supersite requirements including: the interoperability with existing data/information supply systems, the support of policy-based access control, the access to processing capabilities provided by external platforms, the management resources for publishing and sharing new products, the integration with significant global systems such as GEOSS and EPOS. MED-SUV adopted a System of Systems (SoS) approach to address interoperability with the identified heterogeneous systems supplying data and information. The SoS approach is based on a brokering architecture, where a specialized component (i.e the MED-SUV Broker: MSB) connects the existing and next-coming data sources leaving them autonomous. MSB carries out all the necessary mediation and harmonization tasks exposing standard interfaces enabling the interconnection with external systems like GEOSS and EPOS. In addition, MSB is accessible via a JavaScript library implementing Web APIs to facilitate the development of Web and mobile applications.     

Ensuring very shallow-water sediment properties: case study from Capo Granitola harbour,Sicily (Italy)

We present high-resolution Vp models of the Capo Granitola harbor, Sicily (Italy) obtained by first arrival traveltime tomography. Seismic data were collected along four hydrophone arrays on the sea-bottom and via a Watergun as seismic source, in order to plan dredging operations in the harbor. Using a hydrophone spacing of 2.5 m and shot spacing of 5 m, very high resolution quality data were recorded. Seismic tomography expands existing knowledge of the harbour subsoil with a penetration of about 20 m, illuminating the Lower Pleistocene bedrock (Marsala calcarenites) that corresponds to high-Vp regions (Vp?>?4.5 km/s). Low Vp (1.8–4.5 km/s) deposits belonging to terraced calcarenites (Upper Pleistocene in age) are also well imaged; they are about 8 m thick and lie below loose sand deposits (Vp?=?1.5 km/s). The substratum has an articulated morphology; Vp images unravel small steps in the basement probably related to structural discontinuities (e.g., faults). Processing data with 3D techniques enables images of the structure and the thickness of the lithotypes to be reconstructed, thus leading to large-scale, realistic estimates of the total quantity of material to be excavated or dredged. Tomographic profiles permit clear discrimination of the soft sediment above the basement and thus allow the determination of the total volume of sediment above the seismic bedrock, estimated at about 265,000 m³.