Seismic response prediction of reinforced concrete buildings through nonlinear combinations of intensity measures

A widespread approach for the prediction of the structural response as function of the ground motion intensity is based on the Cloud Analysis: once a set of points representing the engineering demand parameter (EDP) values is obtained as function of the selected seismic intensity measure (IM) for a collection of unscaled earthquake records, a regression analysis is performed by assuming a specific functional form to correlate these variables. Within this framework, many studies have been devoted so far to evaluate the effectiveness of several IMs in estimating the EDPs through intrinsically linear functional forms, but it is still unknown to what extent the use of the linear regression analysis affects the quality of the final results. This paper is intended to provide an answer to such question by means of the calibration of suitable nonlinear combinations of scalar IMs, whose statistical performances are compared with those obtained by using the functional form usually adopted for linear regression-based calibrations. Specifically, the Evolutionary Polynomial Regression technique is adopted to calibrate nonlinear regression models for the prediction of maximum inter-story drift ratio and maximum floor acceleration. The comparative analysis is performed for fixed-base and base-isolated reinforced concrete buildings subjected to ordinary or pulse-like ground motion taking into account accuracy, complexity, efficiency and sufficiency. Final results demonstrate that the linear regression analysis is suitable for fixed-base reinforced concrete buildings, but nonlinear regression models provide better estimates. On the other hand, the linear regression analysis can introduce a significant bias in the seismic response prediction of base-isolated buildings, and nonlinear regression models are deemed more appropriate.     

Experimental investigation on sea ripple evolution over sloping beaches

This paper reports on a wave flume experimental campaign carried out to investigate the appearance, the growth and the migration of small scale bedforms on a sloping sandy bed due to both regular and random waves. A Vectrino Profiler along with a structured light approach were used for velocity and morphodynamic measurements at two positions, one located above the horizontal bed, and the other one above the sloping beach. The velocity was computed by phase averaging the velocity measurements. Several velocity profiles were analyzed, identifying an offshore-directed steady current that extends from few centimeters above the bottom for all the analyzed water column. Ripple geometry was measured by a structured light approach and compared with that predicted by several models to shed light on the effects induced by the sloping beach on the shape and asymmetry. Along the sloping beach, the ripples appeared strongly asymmetric with the onshore half wavelengths smaller than the offshore ones. Finally, ripple geometry and migration triggered by regular waves were compared with those generated by random waves with comparable flow orbital amplitude showing a good agreement.     

A physics-based earthquake simulator and its application to seismic hazard assessment in Calabria (Southern Italy) region

The use of a newly developed earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100 kyr and containing more than 100,000 events of magnitudes ≥4.5. The model of the fault system upon which we applied the simulator code was obtained from the DISS 3.2.0 database, selecting all the faults that are recognized on the Calabria region, for a total of 22 fault segments. The application of our simulation algorithm provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behavior of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. The results of the physics-based simulator algorithm were compared with those obtained by an alternative method using a slip-rate balanced technique. Finally, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogs, an attenuation law has been applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog for the production of maps showing the exceedance probability of given values of PGA on the territory under investigation.     

Simplified estimation of the expected annual loss of reinforced concrete buildings

Performance‐based earthquake engineering procedures have now developed to the point that it is possible to evaluate a range of possible decision variables, including the expected annual monetary loss (EAL). Quantification of the EAL is considered to be particularly useful because it could assist with the identification of effective design and retrofit measures that consider seismic performance over a range of intensity levels. Recognizing, however, that existing procedures for the evaluation of EAL tends to be quite time consuming, this paper builds on a recent proposal to use simplified limit state loss versus intensity relationships to compute EAL via a closed‐form equation, without the need to compile an inventory of damageable components and with freedom in the choice of structural analysis method. Various developments to the simplified approach are made in this paper to allow consideration of loss thresholds, non‐uniform damage distributions and the impact of differences in seismic performance in orthogonal directions. In addition, means of accounting for uncertainties in the simplified EAL assessment are described. The work has focused on the assessment of EAL for reinforced concrete frame buildings with details representative of construction practice adopted in Italy in the 1950s through to the early 1970s. By comparing loss assessment results obtained using a refined methodology with those obtained using the new guidelines developed here for two case study buildings, it is concluded that the simplified approach works well. Future research should therefore aim to further validate the approach and extend it to other building typologies and construction eras. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Developing collapse fragility curves for base-isolated buildings

Seismic isolation technique is increasingly used both for the design of new buildings and for the seismic retrofit of existing buildings. Nevertheless, so far, little attention has been paid on the collapse capacity of these structures, mainly because it requires refined nonlinear models and careful consideration of different sources of uncertainties. To fill this gap, a set of collapse fragility functions for existing reinforced concrete-frame buildings, designed for gravity loads only and then retrofitted with different isolation systems (including rubber-based and friction-based isolation systems), are derived in this study. For completeness, buildings with low and high seismic resistance are also considered. Collapse fragility functions are derived through incremental dynamic analysis, considering different collapse conditions both for isolation system and superstructure. For each case study building, mean and dispersion values are obtained considering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, due to record-to record and model variability, respectively. Finally, some comments on the possible use of the results of this study for practical applications are made.     

Human‐induced hazardous debris flows in Carrara marble basins (Tuscany,Italy)

In Carrara marble basins, the long and intensive quarrying activities (which began in the first century BC ) have produced extensive dump deposits, locally known as ravaneti. Ravaneti are of such large dimensions and diffusion as to make them a widespread landform of the Apuane Alps (Tuscany). In recent years these quarry dump deposits have been affected by frequent debris flows, more than 50 in 1996/97. This phenomenon is the most significant currently active geomorphological process in this landscape. The evolution of quarrying techniques produced a variety of sedimentological compositions of ravaneti. The debris flows analysed involve only the surface layers where debris is mixed with fine material with a lower permeability (active ravaneti) than the coarser underlying debris (older ravaneti). The presence of different permeability layers causes a wetting front to move downwards. Source area observations indicate a soil slip movement in the initial phases of the failure. The transformation of landslides into debris flow occurs by means of both soil contractive failure and an increase of granular temperature. The morphological and sedimentological analyses of depositional lobes resulted in a classification of three types of lobe, based on fabric–morphometry relationships allowing the identification of different flow dynamics: (1) type A lobe (platy form), matrix‐supported and well developed fabric with general tendency of ab clast plane strikes to lie generally parallel to flow direction as a consequence of laminar flow; (2) type B lobe (elongated form), clast‐supported and random fabric as a consequence of both turbulent flow and coarser composition of starting material; (3) type C lobe, intermediate type A–B morphometry, tendency for ab clast plane to lie in a semi‐circle around the main flow direction determined by the presence of secondary flow lines divergent from it in the stopping phase. In Carrara marble basins, the anomalous frequency with which debris flows tend to be triggered by medium‐intensity rainstorms (about 30 mm h⁻¹ rainfall) is due to the recent increases in silt dump produced by modern quarrying techniques. This represents a significant example of debris flows as an environmental problem in major anthromorphized landscapes. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contribution to knowledge regarding the sources of earthquakes on the island of Ischia (Southern Italy)

Natural Hazards - This paper analyses data regarding the seismicity and ground deformations of the island of Ischia. The goal is to describe these phenomena as a space–time process, exploring...     

The dynamics of the de Sitter resonance

We study the dynamics of the de Sitter resonance, namely the stable equilibrium configuration of the first three Galilean satellites. We clarify the relation between this family of configurations and the more general Laplace resonant states. In order to describe the dynamics around the de Sitter stable equilibrium, a one-degree-of-freedom Hamiltonian normal form is constructed and exploited to identify initial conditions leading to the two families. The normal form Hamiltonian is used to check the accuracy in the location of the equilibrium positions. Besides, it gives a measure of how sensitive it is with respect to the different perturbations acting on the system. By looking at the phase plane of the normal form, we can identify a Laplace-like configuration, which highlights many substantial aspects of the observed one.     

Tidal effects on the LAGEOS–LARES satellites and the LARASE program

The effects of solid and ocean tides have been computed on the right ascension of the ascending node of the two LAGEOS and LARES satellites and on the argument of pericenter of LAGEOS II. Their effects—together with the possible mis-modeling related to systematic errors in the estimate of the tidal coefficients, especially in the case of ocean tides—are quite important to be well established for the key role of the LAGEOS satellites, as well as of the newly LARES, in space geodesy and geophysics as well as in fundamental physics measurements. In the case of the measurement of the Lense–Thirring effect, the mis-modeling of long-period tides may mimic a secular effect on the cited orbital elements, thus producing a degradation in the measurement of the relativistic precession. A suitable combination of the orbital elements of the three satellites can help in avoiding the effects of the long-period tides of degree \(\ell =2\) (as for the Lunar solid tides with periods of 18.6 and 9.3 years) and \(\ell =4\), but other long-period tides, as the ocean \(K_1\) tide, which has the same periodicities of the right ascension of the ascending node \(\varOmega \) of the satellites, may strongly influence the measurement, especially if it is performed over a relatively short time span. These results are particularly important in the case of LARES, since they are new and because of the role that the orbit of LARES, and especially of its ascending node right ascension, will have in a new measurement of the Lense–Thirring effect by the joint analysis of its orbit with that of the two LAGEOS.     

Channel mobility drives a diverse stratigraphic architecture in the dryland Mojave River (California,USA)

The links between flood frequency and rates of channel migration are poorly defined in the ephemeral rivers typical of arid regions. Exploring these links in desert fluvial landscapes would augment our understanding of watershed biogeochemistry and river morphogenesis on early Earth (i.e. prior to the greening of landmasses). Accordingly, we analyse the Mojave River (California), one of the largest watercourses in the Great Basin of the western United States. We integrate discharge records with channel-migration rates derived from dynamic time-warping analysis and chronologically calibrated subsidence rates, thereby constraining the river's formative conditions. Our results reveal a slight downstream decrease in bankfull discharge on the Mojave River, rather than the downstream increase typically exhibited by perennial streams. Yet, the number of days per year during which the channel experiences bankfull or higher stages is roughly maintained along the river's length. Analysis of historical peak flood records suggests that the incidence of channel-formative events responds to modulation in watershed runoff due to the precipitation in the river's headwaters over decades to centuries. Our integrated analysis finally suggests that, while maintaining hydraulic geometries that are fully comparable with many other rivers worldwide, ephemeral desert rivers akin to the Mojave are capable of generating a surprisingly wide range of depositional geometries in the stratigraphic record. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.