Effects of scale in spatial interaction models

We study the effects of aggregation on four different cases of nonlinear spatial gravity models. We present some theoretical results on the relationship between the mean flows at an aggregated level and the mean flow at the disaggregated level. We then focus on the case of perfect aggregation (scale problem) showing some results based on the theoretical expressions previously derived and on some artificial data. The main aim is to test the effects on the aggregated flows of the spatial dependence observed in the origin and in the destination variables. We show that positive spatial dependence in the origin and destination variables moderate the increase of the mean flows connatural with aggregation while negative spatial dependence exacerbates it.     

Advanced Automated Solar Filament Detection And Characterization Code: Description, Performance, And Results

We present a code for automated detection, classification, and tracking of solar filaments in full-disk Hα images that can contribute to Living With a Star science investigations and space weather forecasting. The program can reliably identify filaments; determine their chirality and other relevant parameters like filament area, length, and average orientation with respect to the equator. It is also capable of tracking the day-by-day evolution of filaments while they travel across the visible disk. The code was tested by analyzing daily Hα images taken at the Big Bear Solar Observatory from mid-2000 until beginning of 2005. It identified and established the chirality of thousands of filaments without human intervention. We compared the results with a list of filament proprieties manually compiled by Pevtsov, Balasubramaniam and Rogers (2003) over the same period of time. The computer list matches Pevtsov's list with a 72% accuracy. The code results confirm the hemispheric chirality rule stating that dextral filaments predominate in the north and sinistral ones predominate in the south. The main difference between the two lists is that the code finds significantly more filaments without an identifiable chirality. This may be due to a tendency of human operators to be biased, thereby assigning a chirality in less clear cases, while the code is totally unbiased. We also have found evidence that filaments obeying the chirality rule tend to be larger and last longer than the ones that do not follow the hemispherical rule. Filaments adhering to the hemispheric rule also tend to be more tilted toward the equator between latitudes 10^° and 30^°, than the ones that do not.     

Discussion on sea level fluctuations along the Adriatic coasts coupling to climate indices forced by solar activity: Insights into the future of Venice

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a dominant circulation pattern in Northern Hemisphere winter, is known to affect sea-level variability in the Mediterranean Sea mainly through the hydrostatic response of water masses to pressure anomalies and changes in evaporation/precipitation budgets. In this study the influence of the NAO on sea levels along the Adriatic coasts is re-assessed in the attempt to uncover the potential causes of the observed high sensitivity of the northern basin to NAO fluctuations. The investigation is focused on the role of the NAO as forcing factor of the winds blowing in the area and of the freshwaters input from the Po River, both of which influence the hydrodynamics of the Northern Adriatic. In addition, some insights into the future of Venice are discussed on the basis of the hypothesis that NAO phases are modulated by the varying solar activity through the intensity of the Earth's geomagnetic activity.     

Swift observations of GRB 050712

We present the results of X-ray and optical observations of GRB 050712 performed by Swift . The X-ray light curve of this burst exhibits episodes of flares in the first 1000 s, the same epoch at which the UVOT detected an optical counterpart. A shallow X-ray decay, with a decay slope of  α=−0.73  , followed and lasted ∼70 ks. This behaviour can be explained in terms of activity of the gamma-ray burst 'inner engine', with the possibility that the last flare is caused by the interaction of the ejecta with the surrounding medium.
We also find interesting spectral parameters for the X-ray emission. In particular, data suggest the presence of an intrinsic absorption in the first 1000 s, which can be explained if circumburst medium clouds lie along the line of sight.     

The web of three-planet resonances in the outer Solar System: II. A source of orbital instability for Uranus and Neptune

The motion of the giant planets from Jupiter to Neptune is chaotic with Lyapunov time of approximately 10 Myr. A recent theory explains the presence of this chaos with three-planet mean-motion resonances, i.e. resonances among the orbital periods of at least three planets. We find that the distribution of these resonances with respect to the semi-major axes of all the planets is compatible with orbital instability. In particular, they overlap in a region of 10⁻³ AU with respect to the variation of the semi-major axes of Uranus and Neptune. Fictitious planetary systems with initial conditions in this region can undergo systematic variations of semi-major axes. The true Solar System is marginally in this region, and Uranus and Neptune undergo very slow systematic variations of semi-major axes with speed of order 10⁻⁴ AU/Gyr.     

Fission-track evidence for late Oligocene and mid-Miocene activity along the North Anatolian Fault in south-western Thrace

Apatite fission-track (FT) analyses of sandstone samples collected across the trace of the Ganos segment of the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) in south-western Thrace (Turkey) indicate that a significant structural discontinuity was in existence at least by the latest Oligocene. Such discontinuity had a complex kinematic history, as exhumation south of it occurred during the latest Oligocene and north of it during the mid-Miocene. Our data imply that early Pliocene westward propagation of the NAF in the Marmara region followed a pre-existing structural discontinuity; such discontinuity could be related to the development of the Intra-Pontide Suture, marking the terminal closure of the Intra-Pontide Ocean during the Oligocene.     

Probing the Nekhoroshev Stability of Asteroids

We apply the spectral formulation of the Nekhoroshev theorem to investigate the long-term stability of real main belt asteroids. We find numerical indication that some asteroids are in the so-called Nekhoroshev stability regime, that is they are on chaotic orbits but their motion is stable over very long times. We have analyzed the motion of bodies in different regions of the belt, to assess the sensitivity of our method. We found that it allows us to clearly discriminate between different dynamical regimes, such as the one described by the Nekhoroshev stability, the one well described by the KAM theory, and the unstable chaotic regime in which diffusion in phase space can be detected over time spans much shorter than the age of the solar system.     

Numerical modelling of regional faults in land subsidence prediction above gas/oil reservoirs

The stress variation induced by gas/oil production may activate pre‐existing regional faults. This may enhance the expected land subsidence due to the generation of mechanically weak points close to the producing field. A class of elasto‐plastic interface elements (IE), specifically designed to address the mechanical behaviour of faults over a regional scale, is integrated into a finite element (FE) geomechanical model and used to investigate the role exerted by active faults in anthropogenic land subsidence. The importance of regional faults depends on a variety of factors including depth of the depleted reservoir, fault number, orientation and size, geomechanical properties of porous medium, pore pressure drawdown induced by fluid production, etc. With the aid of some representative examples, a useful indication is provided as to where and how fault activation may influence both magnitude and extent of the land subsidence bowl above producing gas/oil reservoirs, pointing to a generally limited impact on the ground surface. The simulation of a real faulted gas reservoir in a complex 3‐D setting shows that the proposed IE can be simply and efficiently incorporated into a FE geomechanical model, thus improving the quality of the stress and displacement prediction. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.