Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.     

Forecasting Wave Amplitudes after the Arrival of a Tsunami

The destructive Pacific Ocean tsunami generated off the east coast of Honshu, Japan, on 11 March 2011 prompted the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) to issue a tsunami warning and advisory for the coastal regions of Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California. Estimating the length of time the warning or advisory would remain in effect proved difficult. To address this problem, the WCATWC developed a technique to estimate the amplitude decay of a tsunami recorded at tide stations within the Warning Center’s Area of Responsibly (AOR). At many sites along the West Coast of North America, the tsunami wave amplitudes will decay exponentially following the arrival of the maximum wave (Mofjeld et al., Nat Hazards 22:71–89, 2000). To estimate the time it will take before wave amplitudes drop to safe levels, the real-time tide gauge data are filtered to remove the effects of tidal variations. The analytic envelope is computed and a 2 h sequence of amplitude values following the tsunami peak is used to obtain a least squares fit to an exponential function. This yields a decay curve which is then combined with an average West Coast decay function to provide an initial tsunami amplitude-duration forecast. This information may then be provided to emergency managers to assist with response planning.     

Enhancement of Seismic Data Processing and Interpretation of Fracture Zones on the Upper Part of Granitic Basement in Cuu Long Basin,Vietnam

The fractured granite basement is the primary oil and gas reservoir in the Cuu Long Basin, Vietnam. Due to the complexity of this nonlayered unconventional target, combined with complicated fault and fracture systems, the seismic data quality near and within the basement section is very low. For this reason, it is important to apply improved seismic data processing workflows, filtering and migration techniques, as wells as attribute processing methods to enhance the imaging quality.Our studies show that applying different types of filters, including the f-k, Radon transform and Tau-P, improves signal to noise ratio, removing multiples, revealing basement’s top and its related fractured and fault zones. In addition, the application of multi-arrival-solution migration algorithms, such as Kirchhoff Migration and Controlled Beam Migration, provides improved imaging for identifying basement top and faults and fractures within the basement. Furthermore, the application of seismic attributes such as curvature, apparent dip, or energy gradient, is important in locating faults and fractures, whereas mapping of intensity and orientation of such structures assists the delineation of “sweet spots” and assists the planning of exploration.     

Identifying rock blocks based on hierarchical rock-mass structure model

Rock-masses are divided into many closed blocks by deterministic and stochastic discontinuities and engineering interfaces in complex rock-mass engineering. Determining the sizes, shapes, and adjacent relations of blocks is important for stability analysis of fractured rock masses. Here we propose an algorithm for identifying spatial blocks based on a hierarchical 3D Rock-mass Structure Model (RSM). First, a model is built composed of deterministic discontinuities, engineering interfaces, and the earth’s su...     

Investigating dynamic coupling in geospace through the combined use of modeling,simulations and data analysis

Comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system is of utmost interest, both from the perspective of solar system astrophysics and geophysics research and from the perspective of space applications. The physical processes involved in the dynamical evolution of this complex coupled system are pertinent not only for the Sun-Earth connection, but also for major phenomena in other astrophysical systems. Furthermore, the conditions in geospace collectively termed space weather affect the ever increasing technological assets of mankind in space and therefore need to be understood, quantified and efficiently forecasted. The present collaborative paper communicates recent advances in geospace dynamic coupling research through modeling, simulations and data analysis and discusses future directions.     

Cladoceran remains in lake sediments: a comparison between plankton counts and sediment records

To evaluate the comparability of neo- and paleo-limnology, we made year-to-year as well as seasonal comparisons of contemporary zooplankton data and cladoceran remains in thick (9–42 mm) annual laminations in sediment of Lake Vesijärvi, southern Finland. We calculated the expected annual exuviae production of nine planktonic taxa in the water column using contemporary zooplankton records, and compared the value to the observed net accumulation of their remains in deep sediment for 7 years. Although all of the species studied occur commonly in the lake pelagic zone, deposition of remains differed significantly among taxa. The observed accumulation of three Bosmina species and Chydorus sphaericus was similar to or exceeded expected values, suggesting good preservation of their remains as well as focusing of sediment into the deepest part of the lake. The accumulation of Limnosida and Leptodora remains exceeded expected values several fold, suggesting under-representation of these species in pelagic plankton samples, as well as efficient transportation and spatial averaging of their remains in the sediment. Daphnia, Diaphanosoma, and Ceriodaphnia were clearly under-represented in the sediment due to poor preservation of their remains and use of a 50-μm sieve in sediment processing. Thus, sieving should be taken into account as a possible source of bias. Correlation between relative abundances of all species in the sediment and in the plankton was weak (r _s = 0.54, P < 0.001), but for well-preserved species, the correlation was strong (r _s = 0.91, P < 0.001). Inter-annual variation in the deposition of remains suggested that resuspension and sediment focusing may vary between years, thus making it difficult to interpret absolute abundances, even though the deepest part of the basin shows clear varve formation and seasonality is well recorded. Detailed study of the uppermost lamination showed the seasonal succession of a cladoceran community within an annual varve as well as differences in the seasonality and intensity of ephippia production among the species. We recommend that results of cladoceran analyses be expressed in several ways (relative abundances, per unit dry weight, per unit organic matter, and as net accumulation values) before drawing final conclusions, as each approach may reveal a different aspect of the deposition process. In addition, sedimentation differences between epilimnetic and hypolimnetic species should be considered in stratified lakes.     

Spatial patterns and environmental factors influencing leaf carbon content in the forests and shrublands of China

Leaf carbon content (LCC) is widely used as an important parameter in estimating ecosystem carbon (C) storage, as well as for investigating the adaptation strategies of vegetation to their environment at a large scale. In this study, we used a dataset collected from forests (5119 plots) and shrublands (2564 plots) in China, 2011–2015. The plots were sampled following a consistent protocol, and we used the data to explore the spatial patterns of LCC at three scales: plot scale, eco-region scale (n = 24), and eco-region scale (n = 8). The average LCC of forests and shrublands combined was 45.3%, with the LCC of forests (45.5%) being slightly higher than that of shrublands (44.9%). Forest LCC ranged from 40.2% to 51.2% throughout the 24 eco-regions, while that of shrublands ranged from 35% to 50.1%. Forest LCC decreased with increasing latitude and longitude, whereas shrubland LCC decreased with increasing latitude, but increased with increasing longitude. The LCC increased, to some extent, with increasing temperature and precipitation. These results demonstrate the spatial patterns of LCC in the forests and shrublands at different scales based on field-measured data, providing a reference (or standard) for estimating carbon storage in vegetation at a regional scale.     

Organic geochemical record of environmental changes in Lake Dianchi,China

In order to investigate the natural ecosystem of Lake Dianchi and to assess its anthropogenic impacts, a stratigraphic study of bulk and molecular compositions of organic matter was conducted using a 63-cm long sediment core. The results show that two apparent environmental changes occurred during the evolution of Lake Dianchi: (1) the first change occurred in the 43–63 cm sediment depth, and was revealed by the amount and the composition of organic matter in the stage. Natural changes were possibly major factors responsible for triggering the environmental change, but the influence of human activities could not be excluded. Subsequently, the lake entered into a relatively stable and oligotrophic stage, which maintained until 20-cm sediment depth. (2) Eutrophication started in the upper 20 cm depth. Human activities became a major factor influencing environmental changes in this stage. Vertical profiles of various organic geochemical variables in the upper 20-cm sediments show evidence that primary productivity of the lake increased progressively and that the lake started eutrophic. Especially in the uppermost 10 cm, notable excursions to less negative δ¹³C_org and δ¹⁵N_total and high TOC concentrations have recorded an abrupt change in the lacustrine environment, suggesting that the lake entered a hypereutrophic stage. In addition, enhancement of αβ-hopanes reflects the contribution of fossil fuels to the lake sediments.     

Construction and progress of Chinese terrestrial ecosystem carbon,nitrogen and water fluxes coordinated observation

Eddy Covariance technique (EC) achieves the direct measurement on ecosystem carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it provides scientific data for accurately assessing ecosystem functions in mitigating global climate change. This paper briefly reviewed the construction and development of Chinese terrestrial ecosystem flux observation and research network (ChinaFLUX), and systematically introduced the design principle and technology of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes coordinated observation system of ChinaFLUX. In addition, this paper summarized the main progress of ChinaFLUX in the ecosystem carbon, nitrogen and water exchange and environmental controlling mechanisms, the spatial pattern of carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes and biogeographical mechanisms, and the regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon budget assessment. Finally, the prospects and emphases of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes coordinated observation of ChinaFLUX are put forward to provide theoretical references for the development of flux observation and research in China.     

Evolution and spatial characteristics of tourism field strength of cities linked by high-speed rail (HSR) network in China

Traffic is an indispensable prerequisite for a tourism system. The “four vertical and four horizontal” HSR network represents an important milestone of the “traffic revolution” in China. It will affect the spatial pattern of tourism accessibility in Chinese cities, thus substantially increasing their power to attract tourists and their radiation force. This paper examines the evolution and spatial characteristics of the power to attract tourism of cities linked by China’s HSR network by measuring the influence of accessibility of 338 HSR-linked cities using GIS analysis. The results show the following. (1) The accessibility of Chinese cities is optimized by the HSR network, whose spatial pattern of accessibility exhibits an obvious traffic direction and causes a high-speed rail-corridor effect. (2) The spatial pattern of tourism field strength in Chinese cities exhibits the dual characteristics of multi-center annular divergence and dendritic diffusion. Dendritic diffusion is particularly more obvious along the HSR line. The change rate of urban tourism field strength forms a high-value corridor along the HSR line and exhibits a spatial pattern of decreasing area from the center to the outer limit along the HSR line. (3) The influence of the higher and highest tourism field strength areas along the HSR line is most significant, and the number of cities that distribute into these two types of tourism field strengths significantly increases: their area expands by more than 100%. HSR enhances the tourism field strength value of regional central cities, and the radiation range of tourism attraction extends along the HSR line.