New photometric models of galactic evolution applied to the HDF

We summarize our modelling of galaxy photometric evolution (the GRASIL code). By including the effects of dust grains and PAH molecules in a two-phase clumpy medium, where clumps are associated with star-forming regions, we reproduce the observed UV to radio SEDs of galaxies with star formation rates from zero to several hundred M _⊙ yr^-1.GRASIL is a powerful tool for investigating star formation, the initial mass function and the supernova rate in nearby starbursts and normal galaxies, as well as for predicting the evolution of luminosity functions of different types of galaxies at wavelengths covering six decades. It may be interfaced with any device to provide the star formation and metallicity histories of a galaxy. As an application, we have investigated the properties of early-type galaxies in the HDF, tracking the contribution of this population to the cosmic star formation history, which has a broad peak between z = 1.5 and 4.To explain the absence of objects at z ≳ 1.3, we suggest a sequence of dust-enshrouded merger-driven starbursts in the first few Gyr of galaxy lifetimes. We are at present working on a complementary sample of late-type objects selected in a similar way. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A probabilistic model for rainfall—induced shallow landslide prediction at the regional scale

This paper presents a new probabilistic physically-based computational model (called PG_TRIGRS) for the probabilistic analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazard at a regional scale. The model is based on the deterministic approach implemented in the original TRIGRS code, developed by Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 02–424, 2002) and Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 08–1159, 2008). Its key innovative features are: (a) the application of Ordinary Kriging for the estimation of the spatial distributions of the first two statistical moments of the probability density functions of the relevant soil properties over the entire area, based on limited available information gathered from available information from limited site investigation campaigns, and (b) the use of Rosenblueth’s Point Estimate method as a more efficient alternative to the classical Monte Carlo method for the reliability analysis performed at the single-cell level to obtain the probability of failure associated to a given rainfall event. The application of the PG_TRIGRS code to a selected study area located in the Umbria Region for different idealized but realistic rainfall scenarios has demonstrated the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed methodology, assessed by comparing predicted landslide densities with available field observations reported by the IFFI project. In particular, while the model might fail to identify all individual landslide events, its predictions are remarkably good in identifying the areas of higher landslide density.     

Seasonal temperatures over Italy and their relationship with low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns

An analysis of Italian seasonal temperatures from 1961 to 2006 was carried out, using homogenized data from 49 synoptic stations well distributed throughout Italy. The results show remarkable differences among seasons. Stationarity characterizes winter series, except for Northern Italy (where a warming trend from 1961 is identified); a positive trend over the entire period is recognized for spring series. Summer series are marked by a negative trend until 1981 and by a positive trend afterwards; finally, autumn series show a warming starting from 1970. The relationship between seasonal temperatures and four teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Pattern, Scandinavian Pattern and Arctic Oscillation) influencing European climate was investigated through Spearman rank correlation and composites. Among the results, the strong linear correlation with the East Atlantic Pattern in all seasons but autumn is remarkable; moreover, the explained variance varies between 31.9% and 50.4% (leaving out autumn). Besides these four atmospheric patterns the role of other factors (e.g. soil moisture) is not dealt with, but their importance and the need for more investigation is pointed out.     

Cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides

The risk management of rainfall-induced landslides requires reliable rainfall thresholds to issue early warning alerts. The practical application of these thresholds often leads to misclassifications, either false negative or false positive, which induce costs for the society. Since missed-alarm (false negative) and false-alarm (false positive) cost may be significantly different, it is necessary to find an optimal threshold that accounts for and minimises such costs, tuning the false-alarm and missed-alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to develop cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds, and we also analyse several factors that produce uncertainty, such as the accuracy of rainfall intensity values at landslide location, the time of occurrence, the minimum rainfall amount to define the non-triggering event, and the variability of cost scenarios. Starting from a detailed mapping of landslides that occurred during five large-scale rainfall events in the Italian Central Alps, we first developed rainfall threshold curves with a ROC-based approach by using both rain gauge and bias-adjusted weather radar data. Then, based on a reference cost scenario in which we quantified several cost items for both missed alarms and false alarms, we developed cost-sensitive rainfall threshold curves by using cost-curve approach (Drummond and Holte 2000). Finally, we studied the sensitivity of cost items. The study confirms how important is the information regarding rainfall intensity at the landslide site for the development of rainfall thresholds. Although the use of bias-corrected radar strongly improves these values, a large uncertainty related to the exact time of landslide occurrence still remains, negatively affecting the analysis. Accounting for the different missed-alarm and false-alarm misclassification costs is important because different combinations of these costs make an increase or decrease of the rainfall thresholds convenient. In our reference cost scenario, the most convenient threshold is lower than ROC-based thresholds because it seeks to minimise the number of missed alarms, whereas the missed-alarm costs are almost seven times greater than false-alarm costs. However, for different cost scenarios, threshold may vary significantly, as much as half an order of magnitude.

     

Subsidence Modeling Validation Through Back Analysis for an Italian Gas Storage Field

The multi-disciplinary work described in the paper was aimed at analyzing and predicting the cyclical ground surface movements induced by underground gas storage (UGS) activities in a depleted gas field located in the Po Plain (Italy). The field has been operated as a storage facility for nearly three decades. Currently, the possibility of delta-pressuring the reservoir (i.e. to increase the maximum operating pressure above the initial reservoir pressure) to enhance the storage performance is being considered. Significant information was collected over time: 2/3D seismic surveys, geological and sedimentological studies, 60+ logged wells, geotechnical lab tests and 50+ years of production history and monitoring were available for the development of a fully integrated static–dynamic–geomechanical analysis. The mechanical aspects of the study are the focus of this paper. The data coming from different sources at different scales were analysed and integrated to set up and characterize a 3D finite element method mechanical model to calculate the surface movements induced by UGS activity by adopting an elasto-plastic constitutive law. The model was then calibrated via a back analysis approach, i.e. the model parameters were fine-tuned so that the simulated subsidence/uplift would compare satisfactorily with the ground movements collected over nearly 10 years of monitoring via interferometric synthetic aperture radar analysis in the region under investigation. Eventually, the calibrated model was used as a forecasting tool for subsidence evaluation under different future storage strategies, including delta-pressuring conditions. Results proved that no significant subsidence is expected even if the maximum operating pressure reached 120 % of the initial formation pressure.     

Late Oligocene–early Miocene olistostromes (sedimentary mélanges) as tectono-stratigraphic constraints to the geodynamic evolution of the exhumed Ligurian accretionary complex (Northern Apennines,NW Italy)

In the Northern Apennines of Italy, mud-rich olistostromes (sedimentary mélanges) occur at different stratigraphic levels within the late Oligocene–early Miocene sedimentary record of episutural/wedge-top basins. They are widely distributed along the exhumed outer part of the Ligurian accretionary complex, atop the outer Apenninic prowedge, over an area about 300 km long and 10–15 km wide. Olistostromes represent excellent examples of ancient submarine mass-transport complexes (MTCs), consisting of stacked cohesive debris flows that can be directly compared to some of those observed in modern accretionary wedges. We describe the internal arrangement of olistostrome occurrences in the sector between Voghera and the Monferrato area, analysing their relationships with mesoscale liquefaction features, which are commonly difficult to observe in modern MTCs. Slope failures occurred in isolated sectors along the wedge front, where out-of-sequence thrusting, seismicity, and different pulses of overpressured tectonically induced fluid flows acted concomitantly. Referring to the Northern Apennines regional geology, we also point out a gradual lateral rejuvenation (from late Oligocene to early Miocene) toward the SE and an increasing size and thickness of the olistostromes along the strike of the frontal Apenninic prowedge. This suggests that morphological reshaping of the outer prowedge via mass-transport processes balanced, with different pulses over a short time span, the southeastward migration and segmentation of accretionary processes. The latter were probably favoured by the occurrence in the northwestern part of the Northern Apennines of major, inherited palaeogeographic features controlling the northward propagation of the prowedge. Detailed knowledge of olistostromes, as ancient examples of MTCs related to syn-sedimentary tectonics and shale diapirism, and of their lateral variations in term of age and size, provides useful information in regard to better understanding of both the tectono-stratigraphic evolution of the Apenninic prowedge and the submarine slope failures in modern accretionary wedges.     

Cost–benefit analysis of flood mitigation measures: a case study employing high-performance hydraulic and damage modelling

Natural Hazards - This paper shows a detailed, advanced procedure to implement cost–benefit analyses (CBAs) in order to assess the effectiveness of flood mitigation measures. The town of Lodi...     

基于多尺度数字地形定量分析的月球线性构造自动提取研究

月球表面构造对于理解和重建月球地质构造演化具有重要意义,月岭、月溪等线性构造的形态及分布特征与月球内动力构造运动密切相关。极为有限的样品和难度极高的野外勘察使得遥感成为行星科学研究的最主要手段。中国、美国、日本、印度等国先后发射的多颗新型探月卫星获取了大量高质量数据,尤其是高分辨率的数字地形数据(DTM,Digital Terrain Model)。高分辨率的DTM为月球表面构造特征的自动提取带来了新的机遇与挑战。文中利用多种分辨率的DTM数据,基于多尺度数字地形定量分析方法,识别和提取月球表面的线性构造。使用的地形数据包括500 m分辨率“嫦娥一号”激光高度计数据,100 m分辨率LRO-WAC广角相机数据,60 m分辨率的LRO-LOLA激光测距仪数据以及分辨率高达5 m的LRO-NAC窄视角相机数据。文中使用地形曲率来识别月溪月岭等线性构造,并利用不同滑动窗口大小和阈值进行线性构造的自动提取。对研究区试验结果的定量分析表明,文中提出的基于地形曲率的月表线性构造自动提取方法是有效且可行的,其结果可为月球表面线性构造解译提供重要参考,提高构造解译时效性和精度。     

Metrics for quantifying anthropogenic impacts on geomorphology: road networks

This work tests the capability of a recently published topographic index, the Slope Local Length of Auto‐correlation (SLLAC), to portrait and delineate anthropogenic geomorphologies. The patterns of the anthropogenic pressure are defined considering the road network density and the Urban Complexity Index (UCI). First, the research investigates the changes in the SLLAC in two derived parameters (average SLLAC and the SLLAC surface peak curvature – Spc – per km²) connected to the increasing of the anthropogenic structures. Next, natural and anthropogenic landscapes are clustered and classified. The results show that there is a direct correlation between the road network density and the UCI, and the mean SLLAC per km². However, the Spc is inversely correlated with the anthropogenic pressure (network density and urban complexity). This shows that the surface morphology (slope) of regions presenting anthropogenic structures tends to be well organized (low Spc) and, in general, self‐similar at a long distance (higher average SLLAC). The results of the clustering approach show that the procedure can correctly depict anthropogenic landscapes having a road network density greater than about 3 km/km², also in areas covered by vegetation. This latter result is promising for the use of such a procedure in regions that cannot be seen directly from orthophotos or satellite images. The proposed method can actively capture the alteration produced by road networks on surface morphology identifying different signatures of urban development: exploration and densification networks that are responsible for increasing the local density of the network and expanding the network into new areas, respectively. The effects of this alteration on surface processes could be significant for future research, creating new questions about differences due to human or landscape forcing on Earth surface processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Addressing some critical aspects of the BepiColombo MORE relativity experiment

The Mercury Orbiter Radio science Experiment (MORE) is one of the experiments on-board the ESA/JAXA BepiColombo mission to Mercury, to be launched in October 2018. Thanks to full on-board and on-ground instrumentation performing very precise tracking from the Earth, MORE will have the chance to determine with very high accuracy the Mercury-centric orbit of the spacecraft and the heliocentric orbit of Mercury. This will allow to undertake an accurate test of relativistic theories of gravitation (relativity experiment), which consists in improving the knowledge of some post-Newtonian and related parameters, whose value is predicted by General Relativity. This paper focuses on two critical aspects of the BepiColombo relativity experiment. First of all, we address the delicate issue of determining the orbits of Mercury and the Earth–Moon barycenter at the level of accuracy required by the purposes of the experiment and we discuss a strategy to cure the rank deficiencies that appear in the problem. Secondly, we introduce and discuss the role of the Solar Lense–Thirring effect in the Mercury orbit determination problem and in the relativistic parameters estimation.