Urban expansion in Auckland,New Zealand: a GIS simulation via an intelligent self-adapting multiscale agent-based model

ABSTRACT

Abstract: When modelling urban expansion dynamics, cellular automata models focus mostly on the physical environments and cell neighbours, but ignore the ‘human’ aspect of the allocation of urban expansion cells. This limitation is overcome here using an intelligent self-adapting multiscale agent-based model. To simulate the urban expansion of Auckland, New Zealand, a total of 15 urban expansion drivers/constraints were considered over two periods (2000–2005, 2005–2010). The modelling takes into consideration both a macro-scale agent (government) and micro-scale agents (residents of three income levels), and their multi-level interactions. In order to achieve reliable simulation results, ABM was coupled with an artificial neural network to reveal the learning process and heterogeneity of the multi-sub-residential agents. The ANN-ABM accurately simulated the urban expansion of Auckland at both the global and local scales, with kappa simulation value at 0.48 and 0.55, respectively. The validated simulation result shows that the intelligent and self-adapting ANN-ABM approach is more accurate than an ABM with a general type of agent model (kappa simulation = 0.42) at the global scale, and more accurate than an ANN-based CA model (kappa simulation = 0.47) at the local scale. Simulation inaccuracy stems mostly from the outdated master land use plan.     

A 40,000-year record of environmental change from ancient Lake Ohrid (Albania and Macedonia)

Lake Ohrid is considered to be of Pliocene origin and is the oldest extant lake in Europe. A 1,075-cm-long sediment core was recovered from the southeastern part of the lake, from a water depth of 105 m. The core was investigated using geophysical, granulometric, biogeochemical, diatom, ostracod, and pollen analyses. Tephrochronology and AMS radiocarbon dating of plant macrofossils reveals that the sediment sequence spans the past ca. 39,500 years and features a hiatus between ca. 14,600 and 9,400 cal. year BP. The Pleistocene sequence indicates relatively stable and cold conditions, with steppe vegetation in the catchment, at least partial winter ice-cover of the lake, and oxygenated bottom waters at the coring site. The Holocene sequence indicates that the catchment vegetation had changed to forest dominated by pine and summer-green oak. Several of the proxies suggest the impact of abrupt climate oscillations such as the 8.2 or 4.0 ka event. The observed changes, however, cannot be related clearly to a change in temperature or humidity. Human impact started about 5,000 cal. year BP and increased significantly during the past 2,400 years. Water column mixing conditions, inflow from subaquatic springs, and human impact are the most important parameters influencing internal lake processes, notably affecting the composition and characteristics of the sediments.     

Prehistoric shepherds and caves in the Trieste Karst (Northeastern Italy)

One of the basic problems in the prehistoric studies of the Trieste Karst (northeastern Italy) is that of understanding the use of the numerous caves, which represent the only sites known from Palaeolithic to Middle Bronze Age. Recent sedimentological and soil micromorphological analyses add new data to the traditional archaeological ones. In our opinion, the data should be approached from other than an exclusively chronotypological point of view. The inferences of the data indicate that certain areas of four caves were used for stabling animals, and that this model of site use may be extended to most of the Karst cave sites for the period from the Neolithic to Early Bronze Age. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Clastic sedimentation in the Late Oligocene Southalpine Foredeep: from tectonically controlled melting to tectonically driven erosion

The Villa Olmo Conglomerate (lower member of the Como Conglomerate Formation, Gonfolite Lombarda Group, Southern Alps, Italy) represents the first coarse clastic inputs into the Oligocene Southalpine Foredeep. A number of techniques including sedimentary lithofacies analyses, clast counts on turbidite conglomerate bodies, sandstone petrography through Gazzi–Dickinson point‐count method and XRF analyses, and optical and minero‐chemical analyses on single clasts have been performed, in order to better define the sediment source area and geodynamic conditions which promoted sedimentation in the Southalpine Foredeep at the end of the Oligocene. The Villa Olmo Conglomerate interdigitates with the upper part of the Chiasso Formation, and gradually passes upward into the overlying Como Conglomerate Formation. Provenance analyses (conglomerate clast counts and sandstone petrography) reveal a strong metamorphic provenance signal, likely sourced from eroded Southalpine basement. An increase in igneous plutonic clasts reflects sediment supply from the Southern Steep Belt and a decrease of volcano‐sedimentary Mesozoic cover sequences. Optical and minero‐chemical analyses on volcanic detritus detect the presence of sub‐intrusive to effusive, andesite to rhyolite products, ascribable to the Varese‐Lugano Permian volcanoclastic suite, as well as Oligocene andesite products. Plutonic clasts document the presence of tonalites, granites, and brittle deformed granodiorites (with two micas), being likely sourced from the tonalite tail of the Bergell Pluton and the plutonic units of the Bellinzona‐Dascio Zone. The identification of this provenance suite implies palaeo‐drainage from the region between Varese (Southern Alps) and the Bellinzona‐Dascio Zone (Central Alps). The Villa Olmo Conglomerate is the first depositional record of the onset of tectonically driven erosion in the Alpine belt. We infer that the previous low sediment budget regime (Eocene–Middle Oligocene) was a consequence of a tectonically controlled melting phase, during which tectonic events promoted magmatic production in the middle crust of the Central Alps at rates higher than those of crustal deformation, so inhibiting sediment production. We conclude that changes in the deep structures of the Alpine Orogenic chain have controlled the main geodynamic processes during Oligocene–Neogene times, and have controlled sediment composition and supply into the Southalpine Foredeep. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency of a wide-area survey in achieving short- and long-term warning for small impactors

We consider a network of telescopes capable of scanning all the observable sky each night and targeting Near-Earth objects (NEOs) in the size range of the Tunguska-like asteroids, from 160 m down to 10 m. We measure the performance of this telescope network in terms of the time needed to discover at least 50% of the impactors in the considered population with a warning time large enough to undertake proper mitigation actions. The warning times are described by a trimodal distribution and the telescope network has a 50% probability of discovering an impactor of the Tunguska class with at least one week of advance already in the first 10 yr of operations of the survey. These results suggest that the studied survey would be a significant addition to the current NEO discovery efforts.     

Water-soluble inorganic ions of size-differentiated atmospheric particles from a suburban site of Mexico City

During the MILAGRO campaign, March 2006, eight-stage cut impactors were used to sample atmospheric particles at Tecámac (T1 supersite), towards the northeast edge of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, collecting fresh local emissions and aged pollutants produced in Mexico City. Particle samples were analyzed to determine total mass concentrations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Cl^?, SO₄ ^2?, and NO₃ ^?. Average concentrations were 22.1 ± 7.2 μg m^?3 for PM₁₀ and 18.3 ± 6.2 μg m^?3 for PM_1.8. A good correlation between PM₁₀ and PM_1.8, without influence from wind patterns, indicates that local emissions are more important than the city’s pollution transported to the site, despite the fact that Tecámac is just 40 km away from Mexico City. A lack of diurnal patterns in the PM_2.5/PM_1.8 ratio supports this conclusion. The inorganic composition of particles suggests that vehicles, soil resuspension, and industries are the main pollutant sources. Finally, the particles were found to be neutralized, in agreement with observations in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area.     

The geothermal gradient of Io: Consequences for lithosphere structure and volcanic eruptive activity

We solve numerically the equations describing the transfer of heat through the lithosphere of Io by a mixture of conduction and volcanic advection as proposed by O’Reilly and Davies (O’Reilly, T.C., Davies, G.F. [1981]. Geophys. Res. Lett. 8, 313-316), removing the requirement that average material properties must be used. As expected, the dominance of advective heat transfer by volcanic eruptions means that Io’s geothermal gradient well away from volcanic centres is very small, of order 1 K km⁻¹. This result is independent of any reasonable assumptions about the radiogenic heating rate in the lithosphere. The lithosphere temperature does not increase greatly above the surface temperature until the base of the lithosphere is approached, except in limited areas around shallow magma bodies. As a consequence, solid volatile sulphur compounds mobilized by volcanic processes and re-deposited on the surface of Io commonly remain solid until they reach great depths as they are progressively buried by ongoing activity. For current estimates of the volcanic heat transfer rate, melting of SO₂ does not begin until a depth of ∼20 km and sulphur remains solid to a depth of ∼26 km in a 30 km thick lithosphere. Rising magmas can incorporate fluids from these deep sulphur compound aquifers, and we quantify the major influence that this can have on the bulk density of the magma and hence the resulting possible intrusion and eruption styles.