Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a strategic site in the Bay of Bengal

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) along the route of an offshore pipeline for the transport of oil in the Bay of Bengal has been performed, in order to set up design parameters and identify possible geohazards. The complexity of geological and seismotectonic setting of the region where the pipeline is planned to be installed is the result of the interaction of the Indian, Eurasian and Burmese tectonic plates. In order to properly account for the intricate way by which these plates interact, a large area extending 450 km from the pipeline route has been considered for the compilation of a comprehensive earthquake catalogue, spanning the period 1663–2012 AD. Differently from earlier PSHA analyses conducted in the region based on assuming two-dimensional polygons as seismogenic provinces, this study adopted a seismotectonic source model which also includes for the first time a linear tectonic lineament representing the northward extension of the Sunda mega thrust, responsible for the large Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004. Hazard computations have been performed over a grid of sites spaced 0.045° covering a rectangular area which contains the pipeline. Epistemic uncertainty in the hazard computations has been taken into account by a logic tree framework, incorporating different seismotectonic source models, maximum cut-off magnitude and ground-motion prediction equations. Horizontal median uniform hazard spectra and median uniform hazard spectra plus and minus one sigma on stiff ground have been calculated at the selected sites for different return periods. Peak ground acceleration with 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years has been compared with values from previous hazard studies available for Bangladesh.     

Trends and variability of ocean waves under RCP8.5 emission scenario in the Mediterranean Sea

Ocean Dynamics - Wind-generated ocean waves are key inputs for several studies and applications, both near the coast (coastal vulnerability assessment, coastal structures design, harbor...     

GRAVITAS: general relativistic astrophysics via timing and spectroscopy

GRAVITAS is an X-ray observatory, designed and optimised to address the ESA Cosmic Vision theme of ??Matter under extreme conditions??. It was submitted as a response to the call for M3 mission proposals. The concept centres around an X-ray telescope of unprecedented effective area, which will focus radiation emitted from close to the event horizon of black holes or the surface of neutron stars. To reveal the nature and behaviour of matter in the most extreme astrophysical environments, GRAVITAS targets a key feature in the X-ray spectra of compact objects: the iron K?? line at ~6.5?keV. The energy, profile, and variability of this emission line, and the properties of the surrounding continuum emission, shaped by General Relativity (GR) effects, provide a unique probe of gravity in its strong field limit. Among its prime targets are hundreds of supermassive black holes in bright Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), which form the perfect laboratory to help understand the physical processes behind black hole growth. Accretion plays a fundamental role in the shaping of galaxies throughout cosmic time, via the process of feedback. Modest (~sub-arcmin) spatial resolution would deliver the necessary sensitivity to extend high quality X-ray spectroscopy of AGN to cosmologically-relevant distances. Closer to home, ultra-high count rate capabilities and sub-millisecond time resolution enable the study of GR effects and the equation of state of dense matter in the brightest X-ray binaries in our own Galaxy, using multiple probes, such as the broad iron line, the shape of the disk continuum emission, quasi-periodic oscillations, reverberation mapping, and X-ray burst oscillations. The enormous advance in spectral and timing capability compared to current or planned X-ray observatories would enable a vast array of additional scientific investigations, spanning the entire range of contemporary astrophysics from stars to distant galaxy clusters. Despite its breakthrough capabilities, all enabling technologies for GRAVITAS are already in a high state of readiness. It is based on ultra light-weight X-ray optics and a focal plane detector using silicon technology. The baseline launcher would be a Soyuz?CFregat to place GRAVITAS into a zero inclination, low-earth orbit, providing low and relatively stable background.     

Slope instability induced by volcano-tectonics as an additional source of hazard in active volcanic areas: the case of Ischia island (Italy)

Ischia is an active volcanic island in the Gulf of Naples whose history has been dominated by a caldera-forming eruption (ca. 55 ka) and resurgence phenomena that have affected the caldera floor and generated a net uplift of about 900 m since 33 ka. The results of new geomorphological, stratigraphical and textural investigations of the products of gravitational movements triggered by volcano-tectonic events have been combined with the information arising from a reinterpretation of historical chronicles on natural phenomena such as earthquakes, ground deformation, gravitational movements and volcanic eruptions. The combined interpretation of all these data shows that gravitational movements, coeval to volcanic activity and uplift events related to the long-lasting resurgence, have affected the highly fractured marginal portions of the most uplifted Mt. Epomeo blocks. Such movements, mostly occurring since 3 ka, include debris avalanches; large debris flows (lahars); smaller mass movements (rock falls, slumps, debris and rock slides, and small debris flows); and deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. The occurrence of submarine deposits linked with subaerial deposits of the most voluminous mass movements clearly shows that the debris avalanches impacted on the sea. The obtained results corroborate the hypothesis that the behaviour of the Ischia volcano is based on an intimate interplay among magmatism, resurgence dynamics, fault generation, seismicity, slope oversteepening and instability, and eruptions. They also highlight that volcano-tectonically triggered mass movements are a potentially hazardous phenomena that have to be taken into account in any attempt to assess volcanic and related hazards at Ischia. Furthermore, the largest mass movements could also flow into the sea, generating tsunami waves that could impact on the island’s coast as well as on the neighbouring and densely inhabited coast of the Neapolitan area.     

Assessment of rockfall susceptibility by integrating statistical and physically-based approaches

In Val di Fassa (Dolomites, Eastern Italian Alps) rockfalls constitute the most significant gravity-induced natural disaster that threatens both the inhabitants of the valley, who are few, and the thousands of tourists who populate the area in summer and winter.To assess rockfall susceptibility, we developed an integrated statistical and physically-based approach that aimed to predict both the susceptibility to onset and the probability that rockfalls will attain specific reaches. Through field checks and multi-temporal aerial photo-interpretation, we prepared a detailed inventory of both rockfall source areas and associated scree-slope deposits. Using an innovative technique based on GIS tools and a 3D rockfall simulation code, grid cells pertaining to the rockfall source-area polygons were classified as active or inactive, based on the state of activity of the associated scree-slope deposits. The simulation code allows one to link each source grid cell with scree deposit polygons by calculating the trajectory of each simulated launch of blocks. By means of discriminant analysis, we then identified the mix of environmental variables that best identifies grid cells with low or high susceptibility to rockfalls. Among these variables, structural setting, land use, and morphology were the most important factors that led to the initiation of rockfalls.We developed 3D simulation models of the runout distance, intensity and frequency of rockfalls, whose source grid cells corresponded either to the geomorphologically-defined source polygons (geomorphological scenario) or to study area grid cells with slope angle greater than an empirically-defined value of 37° (empirical scenario). For each scenario, we assigned to the source grid cells an either fixed or variable onset susceptibility; the latter was derived from the discriminant model group (active/inactive) membership probabilities.Comparison of these four models indicates that the geomorphological scenario with variable onset susceptibility appears to be the most realistic model. Nevertheless, political and legal issues seem to guide local administrators, who tend to select the more conservative empirically-based scenario as a land-planning tool.     

Stellar populations in the Canis Major overdensity

We performed a photometric multicolour survey of the core of the Canis Major overdensity at     , reaching   V ∼ 22  and covering  0.3 × 1.0  arcmin². The main aim is to unravel the complex mixture of stellar populations toward this Galactic direction, where in the recent past important signatures of an accretion event have been claimed to be detected. While our previous investigations were based on disjointed pointings aimed at revealing the large-scale structure of the third Galactic Quadrant, we now focus on a complete coverage of a smaller field centred on the Canis Major overdensity. A large wavelength baseline, in the UBVRI bands, allows us to build up a suite of colour–colour and colour–magnitude diagrams, providing a much better diagnostic tool to disentangle the stellar populations of the region. In fact, the simple use of one colour–magnitude diagram, widely employed in all the previous studies defending the existence of the Canis Major galaxy, does not allow one to separate the effects of the different parameters (reddening, age, metallicity and distance) involved in the interpretation of data, forcing to rely on heavy modelling. In agreement with our previous studies, in the same general region of the Milky Way, we recognize a young stellar population compatible with the expected structure and extension of the Local (Orion) and Outer (Norma–Cygnus) spiral arms in the Third Galactic Quadrant. Moreover, we interpret the conspicuous intermediate-age metal-poor population as belonging to the Galactic thick disc, distorted by the effect of strong disc warping at this latitude, and to the Galactic halo.     

Spitzer IRAC infrared colours of submillimetre-bright galaxies

High-redshift submillimetre-bright galaxies identified by blank field surveys at millimetre and submillimetre wavelengths appear in the region of the Infra Red Array Camera (IRAC) colour–colour diagrams previously identified as the domain of luminous active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Our analysis using a set of empirical and theoretical dusty starburst spectral energy distribution (SED) models shows that power-law continuum sources associated with hot dust heated by young (≲100 Myr old), extreme starbursts at z > 2 also occupy the same general area as AGNs in the IRAC colour–colour plots. A detailed comparison of the IRAC colours and SEDs demonstrates that the two populations are distinct from each other, with submillimetre-bright galaxies having a systematically flatter IRAC spectrum (≳1 mag bluer in the observed [4.5]–[8.0] colour). Only about 20 per cent of the objects overlap in the colour–colour plots, and this low fraction suggests that submillimetre galaxies powered by a dust-obscured AGN are not common. The red infrared colours of the submillimetre galaxies are distinct from those of the ubiquitous foreground IRAC sources, and we propose a set of infrared colour selection criteria for identifying SMG counterparts that can be used even in the absence of radio or Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS) 24 μm data.     

On the displacement of marked pebbles on two coarse-clastic beaches during short fair-weather periods (Marina di Pisa and Portonovo, Italy)

The aim of the investigation was to define the mechanisms of sediment transport in the swash zone of microtidal coarse-clastic beaches in the very short term by evaluating the displacement rates of marked pebbles under low-energy wave conditions. Tests were performed at two sites (Marina di Pisa, Ligurian Sea, and Portonovo, central Adriatic Sea) to check the consistency of the data over a range of different grain sizes. Two recovery campaigns were carried out at both sites, one 6 h and the other 24 h after the injection. During the experiments wave action was at a minimum (wave heights never exceeded 0.3 m). The results show that 20% of pebbles ranging in diameter from 30–90 mm moved significantly (more than 0.5 m) already 6 h after the injection, with some tracers being lost (3%). After 24 h, 40% of the pebbles were significantly displaced and 10% were lost. The preferential downslope movement of tracers, which suggests that coarse sediment movement under low-energy conditions is mainly controlled by gravity processes enhanced by steep beachface slopes, represents the novelty of the results reported here. It would appear that swash processes on low-energy beaches cause a significant rate of pebble displacement through the destabilization induced by wave uprush and backwash. Despite the microtidal range, the position of the mean water level plays a major role in changing the beach level at which swash processes can actually trigger pebble movement. The results of this study show that considerable, and mostly seaward-directed, coarse sediment transport takes place even during short fair-weather periods.     

Estimation of net theoretical excavation rates in concrete and sandstone

Abstract

The estimation of excavation rates in specific geological and geotechnical conditions is one of the most delicate aspects for mining and geotechnical operations particularly offshore. Many models have been developed to study the effectiveness of a drilling tool in contact with the ground. In this article, the results of laboratory cutting tests on concrete specimens are shown. The comparison of the results of laboratory tests with different predictive models, helped to identify the most representative models. The models were then used to study in more detail, the effectiveness of the excavation tools through a parametric analysis. The research helped to define how to obtain rubrics, which can estimate the theoretical net cutting production of an excavation machine, when the power of its engines is known, or to evaluate, when the requested net cutting production is available, the power that the cutting machine must have. The findings were also applied to a sandstone previously investigated. The results are based on theoretical models and cannot be used on geomaterials with the same (or similar) geotechnical properties.