Simulation of urban expansion via integrating artificial neural network with Markov chain – cellular automata

Accurate simulations and predictions of urban expansion are critical to manage urbanization and explicitly address the spatiotemporal trends and distributions of urban expansion. Cellular Automata integrated Markov Chain (CA-MC) is one of the most frequently used models for this purpose. However, the urban suitability index (USI) map produced from the conventional CA-MC is either affected by human bias or cannot accurately reflect the possible nonlinear relations between driving factors and urban expansion. To overcome these limitations, a machine learning model (Artificial Neural Network, ANN) was integrated with CA-MC instead of the commonly used Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Logistic Regression (LR) CA-MC models. The ANN was optimized to create the USI map and then integrated with CA-MC to spatially allocate urban expansion cells. The validated results of kappa and fuzzy kappa simulation indicate that ANN-CA-MC outperformed other variously coupled CA-MC modelling approaches. Based on the ANN-CA-MC model, the urban area in South Auckland is predicted to expand to 1340.55 ha in 2026 at the expense of non-urban areas, mostly grassland and open-bare land. Most of the future expansion will take place within the planned new urban growth zone.     

A Completely 3D Model for the Simulation of Mechanized Tunnel Excavation

For long deep tunnels as currently under construction through the Alps, mechanized excavation using tunnel boring machines (TBMs) contributes significantly to savings in construction time and costs. Questions are, however, posed due to the severe ground conditions which are in cases anticipated or encountered along the main tunnel alignment. A major geological hazard is the squeezing of weak rocks, but also brittle failure can represent a significant problem. For the design of mechanized tunnelling in such conditions, the complex interaction between the rock mass, the tunnel machine, its system components, and the tunnel support need to be analysed in detail and this can be carried out by three-dimensional (3D) models including all these components. However, the state-of-the-art shows that very few fully 3D models for mechanical deep tunnel excavation in rock have been developed so far. A completely three-dimensional simulator of mechanised tunnel excavation is presented in this paper. The TBM of reference is a technologically advanced double shield TBM designed to cope with both conditions. Design analyses with reference to spalling hazard along the Brenner and squeezing along the Lyon–Turin Base Tunnel are discussed.     

Numerical simulation of the tsunami generated by a past catastrophic landslide on the volcanic island of Ischia, Italy

The island of Ischia, Gulf of Naples, Italy, like many other volcanic islands is affected by mass failures, that are mainly related to secondary volcanic processes such as slope steepening and seismic shaking. The block resurgence of its main relief, Mount Epomeo, has been recognised to contribute cyclically to mass instability and cause landslides, that occasionally may reach the sea and start tsunamis. In this work we explore the consequences of the Ischia Debris Avalanche (IDA), a flank collapse that occurred in historical times, and involved the whole Mount Epomeo edifice including its submarine portion, and that may have caused gigantic sea waves affecting all the coasts of Ischia and of the Gulf of Naples. The IDA and the generated tsunami have been taken as the worst-case scenario for the occurrence of a new tsunami in the area. They have been simulated through numerical codes developed and maintained by the University of Bologna. The simulation shows that the IDA-induced tsunami attacks severely all the coasts of the Gulf of Naples with the highest waves obtained for the island of Ischia, the island of Capri and the peninsula of Sorrento. The propagation pattern of the IDA tsunami can be used to get hints on the impact that such an event may have had on early populations habiting Gulf of Naples, but also to get clues on the area that could be most severely hit by a tsunami generated by a smaller-scale landslide that may occur in the same source zone.     

Hydrochemistry and isotope geochemistry as tools for groundwater hydrodynamic investigation in multilayer aquifers: a case study from Lomellina, Po plain, South-Western Lombardy, Italy

A multicriteria approach in studying hydrodynamics of a multilayer aquifer system has been used in the Lomellina region (Northern Italy). It involves the reconstruction of the hydrogeological framework coupled to the definition of the hydrochemical and isotopic features of the aquifers. A shallow phreatic aquifer, reaching depths of about 60–80 m from the surface, and deeper aquifers containing confined groundwater, were distinguished. Groundwater generally shows mineralisation decreasing with depth; dissolved ions depict calcium-bicarbonate hydrochemical facies and stable isotopes define the recharge mechanisms, the origin of groundwater, and the hydraulic confinement of deep aquifers. The phreatic aquifer is fed by local infiltration and by streams and irrigation channels. Tritium and Carbon-14 groundwater dating indicate long residence times (on the order of thousands of years) for confined aquifers. The confined aquifers show essentially passive hydrodynamic conditions and maintain a higher piezometric level than the phreatic aquifer. This inhibits the possibility of recent water penetrating far below the surface. The hydrogeological setting of the Lomellina region displays features which are common to other sectors of the Po plain. As a consequence, the results of this study, although conducted on a restricted area, are highly illustrative of groundwater hydrodynamics in large sedimentary aquifers.     

Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.     

The influence of recultivation technique and seed mixture on erosion stability after restoration in mountain environment

Control of erosion, and all of its after effects, from increased surface drainage and erosion to the formation of karst, is one of the essential problems when undertaking recultivation following necessary interventions in the sub-alpine and alpine vegetation stage (high zones). Average slope inclinations of 30–45% in the vicinity of ski runs, and far above in areas of natural erosion and avalanche zones, make restoration processes with sufficient erosion protection the prerequisite for success. Only a sufficient vegetation development of more than 70% ground cover stabilises the topsoil in the long term and reduces soil erosion to an acceptable degree. From 1999 to 2002, an international EU project with the participation of research groups and private firms from Austria, Italy and Germany was carried out under the direction of the Agricultural Research and Education Centre Raumberg-Gumpenstein (AREC) on five different Alpine sites at altitudes from 1,245 to 2,350 m above sea level. The aim of the work was the formulation of practice-relevant requirements for recultivation following intervention in high zones, especially following constructional measures in the vicinity of ski runs and lifts, torrent- and avalanche barriers. In a statistical comparison, the relationship between restoration techniques, seed mixtures of differing ecological value and vegetation cover was observed. The influence of application technique on erosion processes after restoration was obvious for the first two vegetation periods. Only with the additional use of mulch covers could increase surface drainage and noticeable soil loss be avoided. At high altitudes, the choice of seed mixture, irrespective of whether rapid or slow growing and independent of the extent of accompanying fertilisation, had no significance in the first two vegetation periods following sowing. In the following growing seasons, however, higher cover values were obtained with site-specific seed mixtures at three of the five experimental sites. While few species of the commercial seed mixture showed satisfactory persistency, most of the grasses and in particular the alpine leguminosae of site-specific seed mixtures increased their share during the observation period. In the long-term, sufficient protection against erosion is only guaranteed by the use of stable, enduring and ecologically adapted species.     

Evaluation of wave impact loads on caisson breakwaters based on joint probability of impact maxima and rise times

When waves break against seawalls, vertical breakwaters, piers or jetties, they abruptly transfer their momentum into the structure. This energy transfer is always spectacular and perpetually unrepeatable but can also be very violent and affect the stability and the integrity of coastal structures. Over the last 15 years, increasing awareness of wave-impact induced structural failures of maritime structures has emphasised the need for a more complete approach to dynamic responses, including effects of impulsive loads. At the same time, movement of design standards toward probabilistic approaches requires new statistical tools able to account for uncertainties in the variability of wave loading processes. This paper presents a new approach to the definition of loads for use in performance design of vertical coastal structures subject to breaking wave impacts.     

Slope stabilization in difficult conditions: the case study of a debris slide in NW Italian Alps

A case study of a debris slide (estimated volume of about 35,000 m³) is described in this paper. This slide occurred in April 2009 in the North Western Italian Alps (Aosta valley) and damaged the SR25 road along the Valgrisenche valley. Ground investigations started with severe safety and logistic issues being posed. Given the need to open as soon as possible the road, the design of the landslide stabilization works was carried out using a “design as you go” approach. The stabilization measures were conceived to be flexible in order to allow for changes and integration during construction, in line with the progressive refinement of the geological–geotechnical slope model being developed. Back analysis by means of the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and the finite element method (FEM) was used. Groundwater level rise following heavy rainfall and spring snow melting was found to be the main cause of the debris slide. The stabilization works were designed by using both the LEM and FEM methods. The stability conditions of the engineered slope were assessed based on the available performance monitoring data.     

Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation

 Rainfall, soil properties, and morphology are major factors controlling shallow landsliding. A series of meteorological events that triggered soil slips in northern Italy were studied to define rainfall thresholds and to evaluate a possible regionalization. Soil properties, triggering rainfall, and local lithological and morphometrical settings of different sites were used as input to an infiltration model. The approach allows the recognition of several triggering conditions in the Piedmont, Pre-Alpine and Alpine regions. This suggests the need for different rainfall thresholds with respect to those derived with other methods. Intensity versus rainfall duration relationships become particularly important when related to soil permeability and thickness, and demonstrate the role of antecedent precipitation. Events with exceptional water discharge from obstructed road culverts reveal the role played by anthropic structures in triggering such phenomena. Different approaches to slope stability analysis are shown, taking into account bedrock lithology, topography, seepage, and local saturation conditions. Received: 23 October 1997 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Sedimentology and soil micromorphology of the late Pleistocene and early Holocene deposits of Grotta dell'Edera (Trieste Karst,NE Italy)

The deposits of Grotta dell'Edera have been studied by both standard sedimentological and soil micromorphological techniques, and have been divided into four main stages. The two older ones have not been dated, as they did not yield any human artefacts; nevertheless, according to their stratigraphic position and sedimentological-micromorphological characteristics, they may be considered as Tardiglacial. They testify to a thermoclastic event followed by loess deposition, both accompanied by strong inputs from outside the cave. The two following stages were ascribed to the Mesolithic (stage 3) and to the Neolithic-Copper Age (stage 4). In these two intervals sedimentation was strongly affected by human activity, while external inputs decreased. Mesolithic occupation produced sediments rich in ash and decayed organic matter. During the final stage, the cave was a shelter for domestic animals, and the deposits are mainly composed of their droppings. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.