This paper reports on a quantitative estimation of the risk to residents at the toe of Mount Albino, a carbonatic relief covered by shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils, which threatens the municipality of Nocera Inferiore (southern Italy). The quantitative risk analysis (QRA) focuses on one type of mass transport phenomena typical for the context at hand, namely the hyperconcentrated flows. The methodological approach includes three main steps: hazard analysis, consequence analysis and risk estimation. Based on historical incident data, the hazard analysis makes use of a high-resolution digital terrain model and advanced models that incorporate relevant geological and geotechnical input data collected via in situ investigations and laboratory tests. The consequence analysis takes into account information on the exposed persons (age, gender) and their vulnerability. The estimated risk to life is calculated at the individual level (risk to the average and most exposed person). The reported procedure is one of the first QRA’s applications to instabilities which potentially affect natural slopes in Italy, and it was successfully used as technical basis for a public participatory process in Nocera Inferiore, designed and developed to support decisions about risk mitigation measures.
Ocean Dynamics - The tides in the Mediterranean Sea are generally weaker than in other regions of the world ocean, but are locally intensified in passages with complex bathymetry, such as the... 相似文献
The ARIEL (Atmospheric Remote-sensing Exoplanet Large-survey) mission concept is one of the three M4 mission candidates selected by the European Space Agency (ESA) for a Phase A study, competing for a launch in 2026. ARIEL has been designed to study the physical and chemical properties of a large and diverse sample of exoplanets and, through those, understand how planets form and evolve in our galaxy. Here we describe the assumptions made to estimate an optimal sample of exoplanets – including already known exoplanets and expected ones yet to be discovered – observable by ARIEL and define a realistic mission scenario. To achieve the mission objectives, the sample should include gaseous and rocky planets with a range of temperatures around stars of different spectral type and metallicity. The current ARIEL design enables the observation of ~1000 planets, covering a broad range of planetary and stellar parameters, during its four year mission lifetime. This nominal list of planets is expected to evolve over the years depending on the new exoplanet discoveries. 相似文献
The social acceptability of aquaculture is linked to its perceived environmental impact, and this clearly poses a challenge to policy makers in deciding what weight to attach to such a concern within a governance framework for the industry. Using salmon farming in Scotland as a case study, we have developed a survey-based approach to evaluating public and stakeholder attitudes towards the environmental performance of aquaculture. The survey of the general public finds marked regional variations in attitudes towards salmon farming, while the results of the stakeholder survey raise issues over how far the preferences of particular interest groups are truly representative of the community as a whole. 相似文献
Landslides triggered by rainfall can be foreseen by modeling the relationship between the time occurrence of landslides and rainfall. This paper deals with the argument by adopting a hydrological model called Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall (FLaIR). The model is applicable for forecasting recurrent landslides and it is based on the identification of a mobility function Y(.) that links the occurrence of a slope movement to the antecedent rainfall. Once the mobility function is defined, it is possible to define its critical values, the exceeding of which indicates that new mobilizations could occur. The FLaIR model has been used to study some phenomena that happened in Lanzo Valleys, a Western Alps sector of the Piedmont region (Northern Italy) where slope debris flows are the predominant landslide type. The study has led to the development of an early warning system, called MoniFLaIR, for real-time monitoring and forecasting of slope hazard. This article describes some details of the system and its performance. 相似文献
We present an atmosphere–ocean regional climate model for the Mediterranean basin, called the PROTHEUS system, composed by the regional climate model RegCM3 as the atmospheric component and by a regional configuration of the MITgcm model as the oceanic component. The model is applied to an area encompassing the Mediterranean Sea and compared to a stand-alone version of its atmospheric component. An assessment of the model performances is done by using available observational datasets. Despite a persistent bias, the PROTHEUS system is able to capture the inter-annual variability of seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) and also the fine scale spatio-temporal evolution of observed SST anomalies, with spatial correlation as high as 0.7 during summer. The close inspection of a 10-day strong wind event during the summer of 2000 proves the capability of the PROTHEUS system to correctly describe the daily evolution of SST under strong air–sea interaction conditions. As a consequence of the model’s skill in reproducing observed SST and wind fields, we expect a reliable estimation of air–sea fluxes. The model skill in reproducing climatological land surface fields is in line with that of state of the art regional climate models. 相似文献
In situ trace-element and isotopic (87Sr/86Sr) data and whole-rock Sr–Nd–Hf data on 12 gabbro xenoliths from the Hyblean Plateau (south-eastern Sicily) illustrate the complex petrogenetic evolution of this lithospheric segment. The gabbros formed by precipitation of plagioclase + clinopyroxene from a HIMU-type alkaline melt, then were cryptically metasomatized by a low-Rb, high-87Sr/86Sr fluid, and finally infiltrated by an exotic, late Fe–Ti-rich melt with 87Sr/86Sr ~ 0.7055, carrying high concentrations of Sr, Rb and HFSE. The geochemical and isotopic features of both the metasomatizing fluid and the Fe–Ti-rich melt are compatible with their common derivation by the progressive melting of an amphibole–phlogopite–ilmenite metasomatic domain (MARID-type?) that probably resided within the subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Therefore, both the astenosphere and the lithosphere underneath the Hyblean Plateau contributed to the petrogenesis of the gabbros. Sm–Nd dating yields an age of 253 ± 60 Ma for the cumulitic pile, roughly coinciding with a hydrothermal event recorded by crustal zircons in the area. We suggest that the Hyblean Plateau suffered a thermal event—probably related to lithospheric thinning and upwelling and melting of the asthenosphere—in Permo-Triassic time (the opening of the Ionian Basin?). The induced perturbation in the lithosphere caused consequent melting of some previously metasomatised portions. 相似文献