A Bayesian vulnerability assessment tool for drinking water mains under extreme events

Drinking water security is a life safety issue as an adequate supply of safe water is essential for economic, social and sanitary reasons. Damage to any element of a water system, as well as corruption of resource quality, may have significant effects on the population it serves and on all other dependent resources and activities. As well as an analysis of the reliability of water distribution systems in ordinary conditions, it is also crucial to assess system vulnerability in the event of natural disasters and of malicious or accidental anthropogenic acts. The present work summarizes the initial results of research activities that are underway with the intention of developing a vulnerability assessment methodology for drinking water infrastructures subject to hazardous events. The main aim of the work was therefore to provide decision makers with an effective operational tool which could support them mainly to increase risk awareness and preparedness and, possibly, to ease emergency management. The proposed tool is based on Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), a probabilistic methodology which has demonstrated outstanding potential to integrate a range of sources of knowledge, a great flexibility and the ability to handle in a mathematically sound way uncertainty due to data scarcity and/or limited knowledge of the system to be managed. The tool was implemented to analyze the vulnerability of two of the most important water supply systems in the Apulia region (southern Italy) which have been damaged in the past by natural hazards. As well as being useful for testing and improving the predictive capabilities of the methodology and for possibly modifying its structure and features, the case studies have also helped to underline its strengths and weaknesses. Particularly, the experiences carried out demonstrated how the use of BBN was consistent with the lack of data reliability, quality and accessibility which are typical of complex infrastructures, such as the water distribution networks. The potential applications and future developments of the proposed tool have been also discussed accordingly.     

Giant gas bubbles in a rheomorphic vent fill at the Las Cañadas caldera,Tenerife (Canary Islands)

During rheomorphism subsequent to fallout deposition, a portion of the densely welded fallout of the La Grieta Member flowed back into the vent from where it was erupted, while the rest of it flowed down the outer slopes of the Las Cañadas caldera in Tenerife. The welded fallout and conduit-vent structure are physically connected and constitute a rare example of this type of deposits rooted to its feeder conduit and exposed in the caldera wall. The lower part of the vent-filling rheomorphic rocks shows gas bubbles and cavities that increase in size (up to 4 m) down vent. Bubbles are deformed against other bubbles, against the steep vent walls, flattened parallel to the flow foliation planes, and elongated parallel to the flow lineation and flow fold axes. The preservation of such giant bubbles, rather than their formation, seems to be a pretty unique feature of the phonolitic products investigated here and it is likely the result of the combination of factors that acted to preserve, in the surrounding of the glass transition interval, the sealing and the late stage cooling of a pressurized system. In addition, strain drop at the base of the vent-filling rheomorphic flow caused by flow stopping against vertical vent walls may have promoted rapid gas exsolution and the formation of large bubbles.     

Use of Federal Sand for Beach Nourishment and Shore Protection Projects

Coastal shoreline protection and beach nourishment are significant issues for coastal states along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. In some areas, there is a critical need to identify suitable sources of sand for possible use in public works projects for coastal protection. The continental shelf contains large resources of sand and gravel that could be used to support such projects. The U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI) Minerals Management Service (MMS) provides policy direction and guidance for development of the resources located on the federal portion of the continental shelf. This article highlights the MMS's Sand Program, focusing on its cooperative resource and environmental studies with several coastal states, significant milestones and accomplishments, and anticipated activities in 1998 and beyond. Management of sand resources on the federal portion of the continental shelf has been made easier by a federal state partnership concept. Using this cooperative concept, joint projects are being conducted to investigate offshore sand resources, potential sites, extraction methods, and related environmental conditions. The MMS has procedures for negotiating sand agreements under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA) and ensuring that the resources are developed in an environ mentally sound manner. The authority to negotiate with project sponsors, an important recent change in the OCSLA, also resides with the MMS. This 1992 change in OCSLA facilitates the use of Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)resources for public projects. Further, the MMS is authorized to assess a fee based on the value of the resource and the public interest served. The MMS has worked with local sponsors and authorized the use of OCS sand for two projects. However, additional resource and environmental projects, as well as negotiated agreements, are anticipated within the near future with states and local governments along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.     

Subsurface thermal conductivity assessment in Calabria (southern Italy): a regional case study

Determining the suitability of a local area at a regional or local scale for the geothermal application of low enthalpy systems requires the knowledge of rock thermal conductivity values to evaluate the possibility of low-enthalpy heat exchange. A digital cartographic tool is also needed to synthesize the thermal properties of the underground. This tool should be easily accessible and upgradeable and thus suitable for territorial planning and environmental control. In order to address these key issues, a methodological approach was developed within the framework of the national VIGOR Project, dedicated to evaluating the geothermal potential in southern Italy. In this paper the region of Calabria was selected as a case study. Around 70 samples that were representative of the main geological formations were collected from all over the area. Thermal property tests were carried out both in dry and wet conditions, using a thermal device in accordance with the modified transient plane source method. The thermal conductivity values were then compared with data from the international literature. In order to consider the influence of the entire stratigraphic sequence on the thermal conductivity parameters, a geostatistical analysis of the available lithostratigraphic data was performed using the MATLAB toolbox Modalstrata, specially developed for this purpose. A comprehensive geothermal subsurface characterization of Calabria was thus obtained.     

Development of Kinetic Inductance Detectors for Cosmic Microwave Background experiments

We describe the design, optimization, electrical and optical tests of Microwave Kinetic Inductance Detectors (MKIDs) for the mm-wave range. Our detectors are based on a novel resonator design, and are suitable for ground-based astronomical observations in the 143 GHz atmospheric window. The measured optical Noise Equivalent Power (NEP) at 0.3 K is $\sim 10^{-16}~\text{W}/\sqrt{\rm Hz}$ under a 300 K background load. This is equivalent or better than the performance of the best current bolometric detectors for the 140 GHz atmospheric window, limited by atmospheric noise in the best available sites. We also describe which improvements can be introduced to reduce the NEP of our detector, for lower background applications (narrow band or space-based).     

Places of the Holocaust: Towards a model of GIS of place

Progress toward developing a GIS of place can only follow from an understanding of what place is, and this understanding draws on geographical theory. Here—following Agnew, Tuan, and others—we consider place as being made up of three components—location, locale, and sense of place—which are recognizable at multiple scales and vary historically as a product of social and political processes. Using the testimonies of two survivors of the Holocaust, we sketch the components of a model for a GIS of place that allows for this theory of place to be visualized and analyzed. The model is, crucially, both multi‐scalar and sensitive to uncertainty, as a GIS of place needs to be able to zoom in and out of the different scales at which place is experienced, as well as capture both uncertain data and uncertainty as data. We see potential in the representations proposed for scaling up from the anecdotal to the general in the sense that any narrative can be grouped and classified according to places and scales as shown here. The challenge in developing a GIS of place along the lines we propose here is to design a new set of functionalities that can do so.     

Columnar jointing in vapor-phase-altered,non-welded Cerro Galán Ignimbrite,Paycuqui, Argentina

Columnar jointing is thought to occur primarily in lavas and welded pyroclastic flow deposits. However, the non-welded Cerro Galán Ignimbrite at Paycuqui, Argentina, contains well-developed columnar joints that are instead due to high-temperature vapor-phase alteration of the deposit, where devitrification and vapor-phase crystallization have increased the density and cohesion of the upper half of the section. Thermal remanent magnetization analyses of entrained lithic clasts indicate high emplacement temperatures, above 630°C, but the lack of welding textures indicates temperatures below the glass transition temperature. In order to remain below the glass transition at 630°C, the minimum cooling rate prior to deposition was 3.0 × 10⁻³–8.5 × 10⁻²°C/min (depending on the experimental data used for comparison). Alternatively, if the deposit was emplaced above the glass transition temperature, conductive cooling alone was insufficient to prevent welding. Crack patterns (average, 4.5 sides to each polygon) and column diameters (average, 75 cm) are consistent with relatively rapid cooling, where advective heat loss due to vapor fluxing increases cooling over simple conductive heat transfer. The presence of regularly spaced, complex radiating joint patterns is consistent with fumarolic gas rise, where volatiles originated in the valley-confined drainage system below. Joint spacing is a proxy for cooling rates and is controlled by depositional thickness/valley width. We suggest that the formation of joints in high-temperature, non-welded deposits is aided by the presence of underlying external water, where vapor transfer causes crystallization in pore spaces, densifies the deposit, and helps prevent welding.     

Integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought impact monitoring: some hints from an Italian case study

According to the Hyogo Framework for Action, increasing resilience to drought requires the development of a people-centered monitoring and early warning system, or in other words, a system capable of providing useful and understandable information to the community at risk. To achieve this objective, it is crucial to negotiate a credible and legitimate knowledge system, which should include both expert and local knowledge. Although several benefits can be obtained, the integration of local and scientific knowledge to support drought monitoring is still far from being the standard in drought monitoring and early warning. This is due to many reasons, that is, the reciprocal skepticism of local communities and decision makers, and the limits in the capacity to understand and assess the complex web of drought impacts. This work describes a methodology based on the sequential implementation of Cognitive Mapping and Bayesian Belief Networks to collect, structure and analyze stakeholders’ perceptions of drought impacts. The methodology was applied to analyze drought impacts at Lake Trasimeno (central Italy). A set of drought indicators was developed based on stakeholders’ perceptions. A validation phase was carried out comparing the perceived indicators of drought and the physical indicators (i.e., Standard Precipitation Index and the level of the lake). Some preliminary conclusions were drawn concerning the reliability of local knowledge to support drought monitoring and early warning.     

Jacobi Dynamics And The N-Body Problem With Variable Masses

An appropriate generalization of the Jacobi equation of motion for the polar moment of inertia I is considered in order to study the N-body problem with variable masses. Two coupled ordinary differential equations governing the evolution of I and the total energy E are obtained. A regularization scheme for this system of differential equations is provided. We compute some illustrative numerical examples, and discuss an average method for obtaining approximate analytical solutions to this pair of equations. For a particular law of mass loss we also obtain exact analytical solutions. The application of these ideas to other kind of perturbed gravitational N-body systems involving drag forces or a different type of mass variation is also considered. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The VLTI – A Status Report

The Very Large Telescope (VLT) Observatory on Cerro Paranal (2635 m) in Northern Chile is approaching completion. After the four 8-m Unit Telescopes (UT) individually saw first light in the last years, two of them were combined for the first time on October 30, 2001 to form a stellar interferometer, the VLT Interferometer. The combination in pairs of all four UTs was completed in September 2002. In this article, we will describe the subsystems of the VLTI and the planning for the following years. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.