Perturbation of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes

This work aims at the assessment of the occurrence probability of future earthquakes on the Italian territory, conditional to the time elapsed since the last characteristic earthquake on a fault and to the history of the following events on the neighbouring active sources. We start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence in the period 2007–2036 for a characteristic earthquake on geological sources, based on a time-dependent renewal model, released in the frame of Project DPC-INGV S2 (2004–2007) “Assessing the seismogenic potential and the probability of strong earthquakes in Italy”. The occurrence rate of a characteristic earthquake is calculated, taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. The analysis has been carried out on a wide area of Central and Southern Italy, containing 32 seismogenetic sources reported in the DISS 3.0.2 database. The results show that the estimated effect of earthquake interaction in this region is small if compared with the uncertainties affecting the statistical model used for the basic time-dependent hazard assessment.     

Probability gains of an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model in retrospective forecasting of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> ≥ 5 earthquakes in Italy

A stochastic triggering (epidemic) model incorporating short-term clustering was fitted to the instrumental earthquake catalog of Italy for event with local magnitudes 2.6 and greater to optimize its ability to retrospectively forecast 33 target events of magnitude 5.0 and greater that occurred in the period 1990–2006. To obtain an unbiased evaluation of the information value of the model, forecasts of each event use parameter values obtained from data up to the end of the year preceding the target event. The results of the test are given in terms of the probability gain of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model relative to a time-invariant Poisson model for each of the 33 target events. These probability gains range from 0.93 to 32000, with ten of the target events yielding a probability gain of at least 10. As the forecasting capability of the ETAS model is based on seismic activity recorded prior to the target earthquakes, the highest probability gains are associated with the occurrence of secondary mainshocks during seismic sequences. However, in nine of these cases, the largest mainshock of the sequence was marked by a probability gain larger than 50, having been preceded by previous smaller magnitude earthquakes. The overall evaluation of the performance of the epidemic model has been carried out by means of four popular statistical criteria: the relative operating characteristic diagram, the R score, the probability gain, and the log-likelihood ratio. These tests confirm the superior performance of the method with respect to a spatially varying, time-invariant Poisson model. Nevertheless, this method is characterized by a high false alarm rate, which would make its application in real circumstances problematic.     

Richardson's Law in Large-Eddy Simulations of Boundary-Layer Flows

Relative dispersion in a neutrally stratified planetary boundary layer (PBL) is investigated by means of large-eddy simulations (LES). Despite the small extension of the inertial range of scales in the simulated PBL, our Lagrangian statistics turn out to be compatible with the Richardson t³ law for the average of square particle separation, where t is time. This emerges from the application of non-standard methods of analysis through which a precise measure of the Richardson constant was also possible. Its value is estimated as C₂ 0.5, in close agreement with recent experiments and three-dimensional direct numerical simulations.     

Impacts of climate and river flooding on the hydro-ecology of a floodplain basin, Peace-Athabasca Delta, Canada since A.D. 1700

Multi-proxy paleolimnological analyses on lake sediment cores from “Spruce Island Lake” (58° 50.82′ N, 111° 28.84′ W), a perched basin in the northern Peace sector of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), Canada, give insights into the relative roles of flow regulation of the Peace River and climatic variability on the basin hydro-ecology. Results indicate substantial variability in basin hydro-ecology over the past 300 years ranging from seasonal to periodic desiccation in the 1700s to markedly wetter conditions during the early 1800s to early 1900s. The reconstruction is consistent with (1) dry climatic conditions that defined the peak of the Little Ice Age and subsequent amelioration evident in conventional ring-width and isotopic analyses of tree-ring records located hydrologically and climatically upstream of the PAD, and (2) Peace River flood history inferred from sub-annual magnetic susceptibility measurements from another lake sediment record in the Peace sector of the PAD. Although regulation of the Peace River for hydroelectric power generation since 1968 has long been considered a major stressor of the PAD ecosystem leading to reduced frequency of ice-jam and open-water flooding and an extended period of drying, our results show that current hydro-ecological status is not unprecedented as both wetter and drier conditions have persisted for decades in the recent past under natural climatic variability. Furthermore, paleolimnological evidence from Spruce Island Lake indicates that recently observed dryness is part of a longer trend which began some 20-40 years prior to Peace River regulation.     

Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)

Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to study the expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin (Central Italy). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from ~?0.025 to ~?0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitude never occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).     

Carbon capture and sequestration versus carbon capture utilisation and storage for enhanced oil recovery

There are 74 integrated carbon capture projects worldwide currently listed by the Global CCS Institute, including the few already running and those still at the identification, evaluation, definition or execution stage for operation by 2018. Significant funding programmes have recently been launched by the European Commission (NER300 in November 2011) and by the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (CCS Commercialisation Programme in April 2012) for commercial demonstration projects leading to innovation across the CCS/CCUS technology chain to reduce energy system costs. In their calls for proposals, these programmes were open to both CCS and CCUS projects. However, there are significant technical and commercial differences between projects for enhanced oil recovery and those for permanent storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers or in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, the same way that there exist more complexities and limitations for offshore implementation. Such differences are accompanied by different levels of field verification of the various storage and utilisation concepts, with permanent sequestration having only a more recent history and smaller-scale implementation. In this scenario, the need for appropriate due diligence workflows and screening criteria to assess the technical viability and the deliverability of different CCS/CCUS projects remains crucial, vis-à-vis the high component costs, efficiency penalties, reservoir uncertainties and the many challenges related to full chain integration (from carbon dioxide capture to underground sequestration). Based on information in the public domain, this paper reviews the current status of offshore CCS/CCUS implementation worldwide and discusses screening criteria for use by governments, operators and investors alike.