A probabilistic framework to evaluate the uncertainty of design hydrograph: case study of Swannanoa River watershed

ABSTRACT

This study presents a probabilistic framework to evaluate the impact of uncertainty of design rainfall depth and temporal pattern as well as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) on design hydrograph attributes – peak, time to peak, duration and volume, as well as falling and rising limb slopes – using an event-based hydrological model in the Swannanoa River watershed in North Carolina, USA. Of the six hydrograph attributes, falling limb slope is the most sensitive to the aforementioned uncertainties, while duration is the least sensitive. In general, the uncertainty of hydrograph attributes decreases in higher recurrence intervals. Our multivariate analysis revealed that in most of the return periods, AMC is the most important driver for peak, duration and volume, while time to peak and falling limb slope are most influenced by rainfall pattern. In higher return periods, the importance of rainfall depth and pattern increases, while the importance of AMC decreases.     

第二部分南北半球第四纪对比环太平洋高山地区末次冰川作用的年代

山岳冰川是气候变化的灵敏标志,其沉积物是一种不同时间幅度冰川进退规模和持续时间的潜在信息源。大陆冰盖对于气候变化的响应所需时间比温带小规模山岳冰川长,以致山岳冰川更适合于建立气候变化的时间序列。可是大部分山岳冰川变化时间序列的建立经常是运用相对的测年技术,即着眼于冰川序列,这是由于在很多地方缺乏适合放射测年的有机质或火山岩。最适合于取得放射性年龄控制的地区多数位于环太平洋地区,那     

Spatial aspects of organochlorine contamination in northern fur seal tissues

Northern fur seals from the Pribilof Islands, Alaska (St. George Is. and St. Paul Is.) were examined for organochlorine contamination (OC) and whether the organochlorine levels differed between the populations and were at levels that may adversely affect their health. Fur seal blubber and milk samples were obtained from pups, sub-adult males, and adult females on both Pribilof Islands. These samples were analyzed for organochlorine contaminants including dioxin-like PCBs and other selected PCBs and pesticides by high performance liquid chromatography/photodiode array. Results showed that there are clear differences between the two islands in the patterns of fur seal OC distribution. Generally, these differences are confined to the PCBs with only minimal differences in the DDTs. There are also clear biological differences in the levels shown between milk, pup blubber, and sub-adult male blubber. When considering blubber, St. George Is. fur seals show higher OC levels than St. Paul Is., for both pups and sub-adults. On the other hand, milk samples from St. Paul Is. showed higher PCB levels than St. George Is. For the milk, the overall OC levels may impact the immune function of the pups, but are probably of only minimal impact to humans. However, for blubber, the overall toxic equivalency shows levels exceeding those levels recommended for human consumption at St. George Is. and approaching those levels at St. Paul Is. The concentration curves suggest that the movement of OC in and out of milk follows a complex set of reactions dependent on how the OC compounds on a congener level are associated with lipid. In fact, there is some evidence that they may not follow the lipid as closely as we had thought and that lipid levels can vary without impacting the total OC level in the milk.     

Effects of age, sex and reproductive status on persistent organic pollutant concentrations in “Southern Resident” killer whales

“Southern Resident” killer whales (Orcinus orca) that comprise three fish-eating “pods” (J, K and L) were listed as “endangered” in the US and Canada following a 20% population decline between 1996 and 2001. Blubber biopsy samples from Southern Resident juveniles had statistically higher concentrations of certain persistent organic pollutants than were found for adults. Most Southern Resident killer whales, including the four juveniles, exceeded the health-effects threshold for total PCBs in marine mammal blubber. Maternal transfer of contaminants to the juveniles during rapid development of their biological systems may put these young whales at greater risk than adults for adverse health effects (e.g., immune and endocrine system dysfunction). Pollutant ratios and field observations established that two of the pods (K- and L-pod) travel to California to forage. Nitrogen stable isotope values, supported by field observations, indicated possible changes in the diet of L-pod over the last decade.     

Sand-mediated divergence between shallow reef communities on horizontal and vertical substrata in the western Indian Ocean

Distinctions are rarely made between vertical and horizontal surfaces when assessing reef community composition, yet physical differences are expected because of hydrodynamic differences and sediment accumulation on flat surfaces. As sand often diminishes biotic cover, we hypothesised that vertical surfaces will support a greater biomass but have lower diversity due to domination by a few species. To test this, we quantified sessile communities on vertical and horizontal surfaces at three sites in the Delagoa Bioregion on the east coast of South Africa. Community composition consistently differed: vertical communities were dominated by various filter feeders, especially the ascidian Pyura stolonifera, whereas those on horizontal reef comprised a mixture of filter feeders and various algae. The total number of species and all diversity metrics were significantly greater for horizontal reef surfaces. Contrastingly, Simpson’s dominance and biomass were significantly greater for vertical reef surfaces. Percentage cover of sand explained much of the variation in community composition whereas depth did not. Small-scale topographic differences in substratum orientation associated with differences in sand inundation will therefore influence both α and β diversity. Coastal developments and activities that alter sand movements and delivery to the coastal zone are therefore likely to have a profound influence on the maintenance and diversity of shallow subtidal communities.     

Channel and vegetation recovery from dredging of a large river in the Gulf coastal plain,USA

Anthropogenic impacts in large rivers are widely studied, but studies of recovery once a disturbance has stopped are uncommon. This study examines the biogeomorphic recovery of a 40-km river corridor on the mid-Apalachicola River, Florida following the cessation of dredging, disposal, and snag removal in 2002. This failed navigation project resulted in vegetation losses (~166 ha between 1941 and 2004), river widening, and increased point bar areas. We used paired sets of imagery for a 10-year period during the recovery process at two different flow levels to assess sand bar change, land cover change, and their spatial variations. Most large sand bars decreased significantly in area due to growth of pioneer species, typically from the bankside of the bar. Mean bar area shrank 0.17 and 0.20 ha for the 30th and 1st percentile flows, respectively. For the entire study area, both water-level comparisons showed gains in vegetation (23.36 and 15.83 ha), compensated by losses in the extent of water (16.83 and 8.55 ha) and sand bar losses (6.53 and 7.28 ha). Overall, these gains during the 10-year passive recovery period are equivalent to ~15% of the vegetation losses that resulted from the navigational dredging. As found in other studies, most of the pioneer vegetation grew approximately 2 m relative elevation above the low-water surface. The initial length of the tree line and the area of herbaceous growth both had a significant and positive relationship with the area of new vegetation growth over the study interval. As parts of the river are healing, reduced channel capacity from narrowing and tree growth will benefit the floodplain. As elsewhere, understanding of a river's biogeomorphology, hydrology, and disturbance history can help in selecting appropriate recovery metrics to further advance the understanding and management of disturbed floodplains. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acoustic phase tracking of ocean moorings

An acoustic tracking technique for monitoring the motion of deep ocean moorings is described. The system uses Doppler phase shifts from bottom-moored beacons to resolve 3-cm motions. The motion of two intermediate depth moorings is presented.