Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data

Producing accurate spatial predictions for wind power generation together with a quantification of uncertainties is required to plan and design optimal networks of wind farms. Toward this aim, we propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show that our method makes it possible to obtain fast and accurate predictions from posterior marginals for wind power generation. The proposed method is applicable in scientific areas as diverse as climatology, environmental sciences, earth sciences and epidemiology.     

Shallow Circulations: Relevance and Strategies for Satellite Observation

Shallow circulations are central to many tropical cloud systems. We investigate the potential of existing and upcoming data to document these circulations. Different methods to observe or constrain atmospheric circulations rely on satellite-borne instruments. Direct observations of the wind are currently possible at the ocean surface or using tracer patterns. Satellite-borne wind lidar will soon be available, with a much better coverage and accuracy. Meanwhile, circulations can be constrained using satellite observations of atmospheric diabatic heating. We evaluate the commonalities and discrepancies of these estimates together with reanalysis in systems that include shallow circulations. It appears that existing datasets are in qualitative agreement, but that they still differ too much to provide robust evaluation criteria for general circulation models. This state of affairs highlights the potential of satellite-borne wind lidar and of further work on current satellite retrievals.     

Applications of C and N stable isotopes to ecological and environmental studies in seagrass ecosystems

Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen are increasingly used in marine ecosystems, for ecological and environmental studies. Here, we examine some applications of stable isotopes as ecological integrators or tracers in seagrass ecosystem studies. We focus on both the use of natural isotope abundance as food web integrators or environmental tracers and on the use of stable isotopes as experimental tools. As ecosystem integrators, stable isotopes have helped to elucidate the general structure of trophic webs in temperate, Mediterranean and tropical seagrass ecosystems. As environmental tracers, stable isotopes have proven their utility in sewage impact measuring and mapping. However, to make such environmental studies more comprehensible, future works on understanding of basic reasons for variations of N and C stable isotopes in seagrasses should be encouraged. At least, as experimental tracers, stable isotopes allow the study of many aspects of N and C cycles at the scale of a plant or at the scale of the seagrass ecosystem.     

Chromitites platinifères des complexes ophiolitiques de l'Estrie-Beauce,Appalaches du sud du Québec

Résumé Des chromitites contenant du platine, du palladium et du rhodium viennent d'être mises à jour dans les Appalaches du sud du Québec. Les complexes ophiolitiques hôtes de ces minéralisations sont d'âge Ordovicien inférieur et d'affinité boninitique. De plus, ils sont étroitement liés à un arc insulaire. Les chromitites à Pt-Pd-Rh se situent dans les dunites de la séquence à cumulat à leur passage aux pyroxénites. Le platine, le palladium et le rhodium sont exprimés soit sous forme d'alliages et de sulfures complexes automorphes ou soit sous forme d'alliages à Pt-Pd et d'arséniures rhodifères xénomorphes. Cette dernière paragenèse accompagne la serpentinisation des cumulats ultramafiques.

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PGE-bearing (Pt-Pd-Rh) chromitites have been found recently in the Appalachians of southern Québec. They are hosted by Ordovician boninitic ophiolites associated with an island-arc complex. Pt-Pd-Rh-bearing chromitites occur in dunite of the cumulates sequence. PGM occur both as euhedral alloys and sulfides or anhedral Pt-Pd alloys and Rh-arsenides. The Rh-arsenide paragenesis is associated with serpentinized ultramafic cumulates.

     

Derivatives of the Gravity Potential with Respect to Rectangular Coordinates

Starting from a complex operator of derivation, we give expressions for derivatives of arbitrary order of the gravity potential with respect to rectangular coordinates. These expressions have a form similar to the original potential expanded in spherical harmonics and are free of singularity at the poles. Computing sets of numerical coefficients once for all, we can compute the derivatives with a very limited work: the same functions are used to compute all derivatives by means of a unique parametrized formula. This is very comfortable for further algebraic manipulations. Numerical tests prove the accuracy and the efficiency of the algorithm derived from our formula to compute the gravity acceleration vector and the gravity gradient tensor.     

Heat blanketing envelopes and thermal radiation of strongly magnetized neutron stars

Strong (B?10⁹ G) and superstrong (B?10¹⁴ G) magnetic fields profoundly affect many thermodynamic and kinetic characteristics of dense plasmas in neutron star envelopes. In particular, they produce strongly anisotropic thermal conductivity in the neutron star crust and modify the equation of state and radiative opacities in the atmosphere, which are major ingredients of the cooling theory and spectral atmosphere models. As a result, both the radiation spectrum and the thermal luminosity of a neutron star can be affected by the magnetic field. We briefly review these effects and demonstrate the influence of magnetic field strength on the thermal structure of an isolated neutron star, putting emphasis on the differences brought about by the superstrong fields and high temperatures of magnetars. For the latter objects, it is important to take proper account of a combined effect of the magnetic field on thermal conduction and neutrino emission at densities ρ?10¹⁰ g?cm^?3. We show that the neutrino emission puts a B-dependent upper limit on the effective surface temperature of a cooling neutron star.     

A rare reflection effect eclipsing sdB+dM binary: 2M 1533+3759

In this paper, we report a rare reflection effect eclipsing sdB+dM binary, 2M?1533+3759. It is the seventh eclipsing sdB+dM binary that has been discovered to date. This system has an orbital period of 0.16177042 day and a velocity semi-amplitude of 71.1 km?s^?1. Using a grid of zero-metallicity NLTE model atmospheres, we derived T _eff=29250 K, log?g=5.58 and [He/H]=?2.37 from spectra taken near the reflection effection minimum. Lightcurve modeling resulted in a system mass ratio of 0.301 and an orbital inclination angle of 86.6°. The derived primary mass for 2M?1533+3759, 0.376±0.055 M _⊙, is significantly lower than the canonical mass (0.48 M _⊙) found for most previously investigated sdB stars. This implies an initial progenitor mass >1.8 M _⊙, at least a main sequence A star and perhaps even one massive enough to undergo non-degenerate helium ignition.     

Evolving metasomatic agent in the Northern Andean subduction zone, deduced from magma composition of the long-lived Pichincha volcanic complex (Ecuador)

Geochemical studies of long-lived volcanic complexes are crucial for the understanding of the nature and composition of the subduction component of arc magmatism. The Pichincha Volcanic Complex (Northern Andean Volcanic Zone) consists of: (1) an old, highly eroded edifice, the Rucu Pichincha, whose lavas are mostly andesites, erupted from 1,100 to 150 ka; and (2) a younger, essentially dacitic, Guagua Pichincha composite edifice, with three main construction phases (Basal Guagua Pichincha, Toaza, and Cristal) which developed over the last 60 ka. This structural evolution was accompanied by a progressive increase of most incompatible trace element abundances and ratios, as well as by a sharp decrease of fluid-mobile to fluid-immobile element ratios. Geochemical data indicate that fractional crystallization of an amphibole-rich cumulate may account for the evolution from the Guagua Pichincha andesites to dacites. However, in order to explain the transition between the Rucu Pichincha andesites and Guagua Pichincha dacites, the mineralogical and geochemical data indicate the predominance of magma mixing processes between a mafic, trace-element depleted, mantle-derived end-member, and a siliceous, trace-element enriched, adakitic end-member. The systematic variation of trace element abundances and ratios in primitive samples leads us to propose that the Rucu Pichincha magmas came from a hydrous-fluid metasomatized mantle wedge, whereas Guagua Pichincha magmas are related to partial melting of a siliceous-melt metasomatized mantle. This temporal evolution implies a change from dehydration to partial melting of the slab, which may be associated with an increase in the geothermal gradient along the slab due to the presence of the subducted Carnegie Ridge at the subduction system. This work emphasizes the importance of studying arc-magma systems over long periods of time (of at least 1 million of years), in order to evaluate the potential variations of the slab contribution into the mantle source of the arc magmatism.