X-ray single-crystal and Raman study of knorringite,Mg3(Cr1.58Mg0.21Si0.21)Si3O12, synthesized at 16 GPa and 1,600 °C

The crystal structure of a knorringite-type compound, Mg₃(Cr_1.58Mg_0.21Si_0.21)Si₃O₁₂, synthesized in a multi-anvil press at P = 16 GPa and T = 1,600 °C, was refined from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data up to R = 2.36 % for 314 independent reflections. Garnet was found to be cubic and have space group Ia $\overline{3}$ d, with the unit cell parameters a = 11.5718 (1) Å, V = 1,549.54 (2) Å³. The knorringite crystal studied contains 21 mol% of majorite end-member. The structural characterization of knorringitic garnet is important because the study of its thermodynamic constants provides new constraints on thermobarometry of peridotitic garnet assemblages of the lowermost upper mantle. The Raman spectra of synthetic knorringite have been obtained for the first time.     

Predictive Power Evaluation of a Physically Based Model for Shallow Landslides in the Area of Oltrepò Pavese,Northern Italy

The use of real-time landslide early warning systems is attracting the attention of the scientific community, since it allows to assess “where” and “when” a shallow rainfall-induced landslide might occur by coupling rainfall amounts, hydrological models and slope-stability analysis. The paper deals with the main results of a back analysis, which refers to the application of a physically based stability model [Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP)] on regional scale. The analysis concerns the occurrence of some recent rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the municipal territory of Broni, in the area of Oltrepò Pavese (Northern Italy). The study area is a hilly region 2.4 km² wide, where more than 40 % of the territory has slopes steeper than 15° and altitudes are between 90 and 250 m a.s.l. As regards the geologic setting, clayey-silty shallow colluvial deposits, with a maximum thickness of about 3 m, overlap a bedrock made of clayey shales, calcareous flysch and marls. The SLIP model is based on the limit equilibrium method applied to an infinite slope and on the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion for the soil. By assuming that the main hydro-geotechnical process that leads to failure is the saturation of parts of the soil, the model allows to take into account the condition of partial saturation of the soil. The safety factor (F _S ) of a slope is also function of previous rainfalls. After the implementation of the model at territory scale, the input data have been introduced through a geographic information systems platform. In the current paper we mainly intend to evaluate the performance of SLIP at catchment scale, by comparison to (1) observed landslide events and (2) another well-established physically based model (TRIGRS). Further, we want to assess the suitability of the model as early warning tool. The results produced by the model are analyzed both in terms of safety factor maps, corresponding to some particular rainfall events, and in terms of the time-varying percentage of unstable areas over a 2-year span period. The paper shows the comparison between observed landslide localizations and model predictions. A quantitative comparison between the SLIP model and TRIGRS is presented, only for the most important event that occurred during the analyzed period. Overall, the results of the stability analyses based on observed rainfalls show the capability of the SLIP model to predict, in real-time and on a wide area, the occurrence of the analyzed phenomena.     

Assessment of coastal flooding hazard along the Emilia Romagna littoral,IT

Aim of this paper is to develop simple tools for mapping — at regional and local scale — coastal areas exposed at flooding risk. A two-step simplified procedure for coastal management purposes is presented and is applied to Emilia Romagna (Italy), whose low and sandy coast faces the relatively mild Northern Adriatic Sea. The procedure is composed by a 1D conceptual model to determine flooding probability along wide coastal stretches and by a more detailed 2D Level II reliability method, that provides local quantitative statistical maps of inland flooding propagation. Qualitative maps obtained by literature approaches and quantitative results of flooding probability along the littoral show a good agreement. A coastal flood state indicator is proposed to rapidly assess coastal hazard.     

Thermoluminescence dating of the Kamil impact crater (Egypt)

Thermoluminescence (TL) dating has been used to determine the age of the meteorite impact crater at Gebel Kamil (Egyptian Sahara). Previous studies suggested that the 45 m diameter structure was produced by a fall in recent times (less than 5000 years ago) of an iron meteorite impactor into quartz‐arenites and siltstones belonging to the Lower Cretaceous Gilf Kebir Formation. The impact caused the complete fragmentation of the impactor, and the formation of a variety of impactites (e.g., partially vitrified dark and light materials) present as ejecta within the crater and in the surrounding area. After a series of tests to evaluate the TL properties of different materials including shocked intra‐crater target rocks and different types of ejecta, we selected a suite of light‐colored ejecta that showed evidence of strong thermal shock effects (e.g., partial vitrification and the presence of high‐temperature and ‐pressure silica phases). The abundance of quartz in the target rocks, including the vitrified impactites, allowed TL dating to be undertaken. The variability of radioactivity of the intracrateric target rocks and the lack of direct in situ dosimetric evaluations prevented precise dating; it was, however, possible to constrain the impact in the 2000 BC–500 AD range. If, as we believe, the radioactivity measured in the fallback deposits is a reliable estimate of the mean radioactivity of the site, the narrower range 1600–400 BC (at the 2σ confidence level) can be realistically proposed.     

Potential for small scale added value of RCM’s downscaled climate change signal

In recent decades, the need of future climate information at local scales have pushed the climate modelling community to perform increasingly higher resolution simulations and to develop alternative approaches to obtain fine-scale climatic information. In this article, various nested regional climate model (RCM) simulations have been used to try to identify regions across North America where high-resolution downscaling generates fine-scale details in the climate projection derived using the “delta method”. Two necessary conditions were identified for an RCM to produce added value (AV) over lower resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in the fine-scale component of the climate change (CC) signal. First, the RCM-derived CC signal must contain some non-negligible fine-scale information—independently of the RCM ability to produce AV in the present climate. Second, the uncertainty related with the estimation of this fine-scale information should be relatively small compared with the information itself in order to suggest that RCMs are able to simulate robust fine-scale features in the CC signal. Clearly, considering necessary (but not sufficient) conditions means that we are studying the “potential” of RCMs to add value instead of the AV, which preempts and avoids any discussion of the actual skill and hence the need for hindcast comparisons. The analysis concentrates on the CC signal obtained from the seasonal-averaged temperature and precipitation fields and shows that the fine-scale variability of the CC signal is generally small compared to its large-scale component, suggesting that little AV can be expected for the time-averaged fields. For the temperature variable, the largest potential for fine-scale added value appears in coastal regions mainly related with differential warming in land and oceanic surfaces. Fine-scale features can account for nearly 60 % of the total CC signal in some coastal regions although for most regions the fine scale contributions to the total CC signal are of around ～5 %. For the precipitation variable, fine scales contribute to a change of generally less than 15 % of the seasonal-averaged precipitation in present climate with a continental North American average of ～5 % in both summer and winter seasons. In the case of precipitation, uncertainty due to sampling issues may further dilute the information present in the downscaled fine scales. These results suggest that users of RCM simulations for climate change studies in a delta method framework have little high-resolution information to gain from RCMs at least if they limit themselves to the study of first-order statistical moments. Other possible benefits arising from the use of RCMs—such as in the large scale of the downscaled fields– were not explored in this research.