Climate change and resilience of tributary thermal refugia for salmonids in eastern Canadian rivers

Abstract

River water temperature regimes are expected to change along with climate over the next decades. This work focuses on three important salmon rivers of eastern Canada, two of which warm up most summers to temperatures higher than the Atlantic salmon lethal limit (>28°C). Water temperature was monitored at 53 sites on the three basins during 2–18 summers, with about half of these sites either known or potential thermal refugia for salmon. Site-specific statistical models predicting water temperature, based on 10 different climate scenarios, were developed in order to assess how many of these sites will remain cool enough to serve as refugia in the future (2046–2065). The results indicate that, while 19 of the 23 identified refugia will persist, important increases in the occurrence and duration of temperature events in excess of 24°C and 28°C, respectively, in the mainstems of the rivers, will lead to higher demands for thermal refugia in the salmonid populations.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor T. Okruszko     

Radiolarians from the Pohang Basin,Southeast Korea and Paleoceanographic Implications

We identified a total of 101 species and two subspecies of radiolarians belonging to 56 genera from 95 samples collected from the Hagjeon and Duho Formations in the Pohang Basin of the southeastern Korean Peninsula. On the basis of the biostratigraphic range of Cyrtocapsella cornuta and Theocorys redondoensis, the depositional period of the upper Hagjeon and lowest Duho Formations was determined to be early to late Middle Miocene. The occurrence of deep-dwelling radiolarians indicates that the paleobathymetry seems to become gradually progressing toward an upper bathyal environment in the middle part of the Hagjeon Formation. However, we prefer to accept another interpretation for the occurrence of deep-sea indicators in the Hagjeon and the lowest part of the Duho Formations, and consider the presence of a region of upwelling cold water that might have simulated a deep-water environment in relatively shallow water. This interpretation is based on the present upwelling of a cold-water mass off the southeast coast of Korea, the occurrence of upwelling microfossils from the Pohang Basin, and the effect of the closing of the Korea Strait approximately 15 Ma. We also considered that the uppermost part of the studied section represents a shallow-water environment.     

The evaluation of the probability of rock wedge failure using the point estimate method

In a probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability, the Monte Carlo simulation technique has been widely used to evaluate the probability of slope failure. While the Monte Carlo simulation technique has many advantages, the technique requires complete information of the random variables in stability analysis; however, in practice, it is difficult to obtain complete information from a field investigation. The information on random variables is usually limited due to the restraints of sampling numbers. This is why approximation methods have been proposed for reliability analyses. Approximation methods, such as the first-order second-moment method and the point estimate method, require only the mean and standard deviation of the random variable; therefore, it is easy to utilize when the information is limited. Usually, a single closed form of the formula for the evaluation of the factor of safety is needed for an approximation method. However, the commonly used stability analysis method of wedge failure is complicated and cumbersome and does not provide a simple equation for the evaluation of the factor of safety. Consequently, the approximation method is not appropriate for wedge failure. In order to overcome this limitation, a simple equation, which is obtained from the maximum likelihood estimation method for wedge failure, is utilized to calculate the probability of failure. A simple equation for the direct estimation of the safety factors for wedge failure has been empirically derived from failed and stable cases of slope, using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The developed technique has been applied to a practical example, and the results from the developed technique were compared to the results from the Monte Carlo simulation technique.     

Long-term simulations of the sulfur concentrations over the China, Japan and Korea: A model comparison study

Three comprehensive acid deposition models were used to simulate the sulfur concentrations over northeast Asia over the period covering entire year of 2002, and discussed the aggregated uncertainties and discrepancies of the three models. The participating models are from the countries participating in the project of Longrange Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia (LTP): China, Japan and Korea. The Eulerian Model-3/CMAQ (by China), Regional Air Quality Model (RAQM, by Japan), and Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model (CADM, by Korea) were employed by each country with common emissions data established by the administrative agencies of China, Japan and Korea. The episodic simulation results between 1 to 15, March 2002 are also presented, during which aircraft measurements were carried out over the Yellow sea. The episodic results show both a wide short-term variability in simulations against measurements, and maximum concentration differences of 3～5 times among the three models, requiring that further attention before confidence among the three models can be claimed for short-term simulations. However, the year-long cumulative simulations showed almost the same general features, with lower aggregated uncertainties between the three models, produced by the long term integration over northeast Asia.     

Effect of highly pervious geological features on ground-water flow into a tunnel

Current practice for estimating water inflow rate relies mostly on analytical solutions which assume a homogeneous, isotropic porous medium around a tunnel. Field measurements indicate that current engineering practice does not consistently make adequate estimate of ground-water flow into a tunnel during excavation due to various factors that analytical solutions do not properly take into account. Among the various factors affecting ground-water flow, the significance of a highly pervious feature located near the tunnel is discussed in this research. The highly pervious feature, which is located near an underground opening and connected to a large source of water, can provide a path for relatively high-head water to the joints intersecting the opening. This paper describes the influence of a highly pervious feature on the ground-water flow regime around a tunnel and the change of inflow rate as the tunnel approaches a highly pervious feature.     

Carbon isotope composition of Upper Cambrian to Lower Ordovician carbonate in Korea,and its bearing on the Cambrian–Ordovician boundary and Lower Ordovician paleoceanography

This study presents an example of locating Cambrian–Ordovician boundary in the lower Paleozoic carbonate succession in Korea using carbon isotope stratigraphy. The Yeongweol Unit of the lower Paleozoic Joseon Supergroup comprises the Upper Cambrian Wagok Formation and the Lower Ordovician Mungok Formation in the Cambrian–Ordovician transition interval. Conventionally, the boundary was placed at the lithostratigraphic boundary between the two formations. This study reveals that the boundary is positioned in the basal part of the Mungok Formation based on the carbon isotope stratigraphy coupled with biostratigraphic information of conodont and trilobite faunas. The δ¹³C curve of the Lower Ordovician Mungok Formation shows a similar trend to that of the coeval stratigraphic interval of Argentine Precordillera (Buggisch et al., 2003), suggesting that the δ¹³C curve of the Mungok Formation reflects the Early Ordovician global carbon cycle.     

Evidence of gas hydrate from downhole logging data in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea

The Gas Hydrate Research and Development Organization (GHDO) of Korea successfully accomplished both coring (hydraulic piston and pressure coring) and logging (logging-while-drilling, LWD, and wireline logging) to investigate the presence of gas hydrate during the first deep drilling expedition in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea of Korea (referred to as UBGH1) in 2007. The LWD data from two sites (UBGH1-9, UBGH1-10) showed elevated electrical resistivity (>80 Ω-m) and P-wave velocity (>2000 m/s) values indicating the presence of gas hydrate. During the coring period, the richest gas hydrate accumulation was discovered at these intervals. Based on log data, the occurrence of gas hydrate is primarily controlled by the presence of fractures. The gas hydrate saturation calculated using Archie’s relation shows greater than 60% (as high as ∼90%) of the pore space, although Archie’s equation typically overestimates gas hydrate saturation in near-vertical fractures. The saturation of gas hydrate is also estimated using the modified Biot-Gassmann theory (BGTL) by Lee and Collett (2006). The saturation values estimated rom BGTL are much lower than those calculated from Archie’s equation. Based on log data, the hydrate-bearing sediment section is approximately 70 m (UBGH1-9) to 130 m (UBGH1-10) in thickness at these two sites. This was further directly confirmed by the recovery of gas hydrate samples and pore water freshening collected from deep drilling core during the expedition. LWD data also strongly support the interpretation of the seismic gas hydrate indicators (e.g., vent or chimney structures and bottom-simulating reflectors), which imply the probability of widespread gas hydrate presence in the Ulleung Basin.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cochlodinium polykrikoides</Emphasis> red tide detection in the South Sea of Korea using spectral classification of MODIS data

To distinguish true red tide water (particularly Cochlodinium polykrikoides blooms) from non-red tide water (false satellite high chlorophyll water) in the South Sea of Korea, we developed a systematic classification method using spectral information from MODIS level products and applied it to five different harmful algal bloom events. Red tide and nonred tide waters were classified based on four different criteria. The first step revealed that the radiance peaks of potential red tide water occurred at 555 and 678 nm. The second step separated optically different waters that were influenced by relatively low and high contributions of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) (including detritus) to chlorophyll. The third and fourth steps discriminated red tide water from non-red tide water based on the blue-to-green ratio in areas with lower and higher contributions of CDOM to chlorophyll, respectively. After applying the red tide classification (using the four criteria), the spectral response of the red tide water, which is influenced by pigment concentration, showed different slopes for the blue and green bands (lower slope at blue bands and higher slope at green bands). The opposite result was found for non-red tide water, due to decreasing phytoplankton absorption and increasing detritus/CDOM absorption at blue bands. The results were well matched with the discoloration of water (blue to dark red/brown) and delineated the areal coverage of C. polykrikoides blooms, revealing the nature of spatial and temporal variations in red tides. This simple spectral classification method led to increase user accuracy for C. polykrikoides and non-red tide blooms (>46% and >97%) and provided a more reliable and robust identification of red tides over a wide range of oceanic environments than was possible using chlorophyll a concentration, chlorophyll anomaly, fluorescence analysis, or proposed red tide detection algorithms.     

Morphological and genetic comparison of two strains of a Prorocentrum species isolated from Zhejiang coastal water of China and Masan Bay of Korea

In this paper, we examined the detailed morphology of two strains of Prorocentrum isolated from the coastal waters of Zhejiang (Wenling area), China, and Masan Bay of Korea. A taxonomic comparison was made among strains on the basis of morphological and molecular data. The cellular dimensions of the Chinese Wenling strain (LAMB090508) and Korean strain (PDKS0206) were similar and the cells of both strains were of asymmetric and elongated shape. The posterior end of most cells was rounded. Megacytic zones of aged cells were broader with dense tiny knobs. The roundish nucleus was located in the posterior part of the cell. A few irregular shaped chloroplasts were distributed within the cell. The nucleotide similarity of the two strains, determined from the 5.8S rDNA-ITS sequences, was 99.83%. The comparative results of morphology and molecular analysis suggest that both strains isolated from China and Korea were the identical species, Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu.     

Comparison of radiocarbon and OSL dating methods for a Late Quaternary sediment core from Lake Ulaan,Mongolia

Both radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating methods were applied to test their suitability for establishing a chronology of arid-zone lacustrine sediments using a 5.88-m-long core drilled from Lake Ulaan, southern Mongolia. Although the radiocarbon and OSL ages agree in some samples, the radiocarbon ages are older than the corresponding OSL ages at the 550-cm depth horizon (late Pleistocene) and in the 100–300-cm interval (early to late Holocene). In the early to late Holocene, radiocarbon ages are consistently older than OSL ages by 4,100–5,800 years, and in the late Pleistocene by 2,700–3,000 years. Grain-size analysis of early to late Holocene sediments and one late Pleistocene sediment sample (550-cm depth) indicates that eolian processes were the dominant sediment-transport mechanism. Also, two late Pleistocene sediments samples (from 400- to 500-cm depths) are interpreted to have been deposited by both eolian and glaciofluvial processes. Accordingly, the radiocarbon ages that were older than the corresponding OSL ages during the Holocene seem to have been a consequence of the influx of ¹⁴C-deficient carbon delivered from adjacent soils and Paleozoic carbonate rocks by the westerly winds, a process that is also active today. In addition to the input of old reworked carbon by eolian processes, the late Pleistocene sediments were also influenced by old carbon delivered by deglacial meltwater. The results of this study suggest that when eolian sediment transport is suspected, especially in lakes of arid environments, the OSL dating method is superior to the radiocarbon dating method, as it eliminates a common ‘old-carbon’ error problem.