Stability Analysis and the Stabilisation of Flexural Toppling Failure

Flexural toppling is a mode of failure that may occur in a wide range of layered rock strata in both rock slopes and large underground excavations. Whenever rock mass is composed of a set of parallel discontinuities dipping steeply against the excavated face plane, the rock mass will have the potential of flexural toppling failure as well. In such cases, the rock mass behaves like inclined superimposed cantilever beams that bend under their own weight while transferring the load to the underlying strata. If the bending stress exceeds the rock column’s tensile strength, flexural toppling failure will be initiated. Since the rock columns are “statically indeterminate,” thus, their factors of safety may not be determined solely by equations of equilibrium. The paper describes an analytical model with a sequence of inclined superimposed cantilever rock columns with a potential of flexural topping failure. The model is based on the principle of compatibility equations and leads to a new method by which the magnitudes and points of application of intercolumn forces are determined. On the basis of the proposed model, a safety factor for each rock column can be computed independently. Hence, every rock column will have a unique factor of safety. The least factor of safety that exists in any rock column is selected as the rock mass representative safety factor based on which simple equations are proposed for a conservative rock mass stability analysis and design. As a result, some new relations are established in order to design the length, cross-sectional area and pattern of fully grouted rock bolts for the stabilisation of such rock mass. Finally, the newly proposed equations are compared with the results of existing experimental flexural toppling failure models (base friction and centrifuge tests) for further verification.     

Spring rainfall prediction based on remote linkage controlling using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)

This paper aims to study the relationship between large-scale synoptic patterns and rainfall in Khorasan Razavi Province. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was used in this study to predict rainfall in the period between April and June in Khorasan Razavi Province. We first analyzed the relationship between average regional rainfall and the changes in synoptic patterns including sea-level pressure, sea-level pressure difference, sea-level temperature, temperature difference between sea level and the 1,000-hPa level, the temperature of the 700-hPa level, the thickness between the 500- and 1,000-hPa levels, the relative humidity at the 300-hPa level, and precipitable water content. We have examined the effect of synoptic patterns in these regions on the rainfall in the northeast region of Iran. Then, the ANFIS in the period 1970–1997 has been taught. Finally, we forecast the rainfall for the period 1998–2007. The results show that the ANFIS can predict the rainfall with reasonable accuracy.     

Displacement reducer fuses for improving seismic performance of caisson quay walls

This research is to study the efficiency of displacement reducer fuses, installed behind the caisson quay walls for controlling the dynamic backfill thrust and minimizing the displacement, settlement and tilting of the walls. For this purpose, two types of fuses, Displacement Reducer Panels (DRP) and Displacement Reducer Elements (DRE), were constructed and installed behind the wall. The DRPs were constructed by hollow Polypropylene sheets to reproduce elastoplastic and plastic mechanical behaviors. The DREs were cylindrical stainless-steel dampers, working upon friction mechanism that can reproduce perfect plastic behavior. Here, two series of shaking table 1-g tests were performed with DRP and DRE applications. In this regard, different mechanical behaviors and capacities were considered for fuses against demand thrusts of backfill in order to compare the mitigation tests with no-mitigation cases. Harmonic base motions with constant amplitude and constant frequency were used in the model test. The foundation soil and the backfill soil were constructed with the relative densities of 85 and 25%, respectively, to reproduce non-liquefiable base layer and loose backfill situations in the model, respectively. The results showed remarkable reduction in kinetic energy, dynamic backfill thrust and consequently seaward movement, settlement and inclination of the caisson quay wall in case of using fuses with plastic behaviors behind the wall.     

Comparative study of probable maximum precipitation and isohyetal maps for mountainous regions, Pakistan

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is widely used by hydrologists for appraisal of probable maximum flood (PMF) used for soil and water conservation structures, and design of dam spillways. A number of methods such as empirical, statistical and dynamic are used to estimate PMP, the most favored being statistical and hydro-meteorological. In this paper, PMP estimation in mountainous regions of Pakistan is studied using statistical as well as physically based hydro-meteorological approaches. Daily precipitation, dew point, wind speed and temperature data is processed to estimate PMP for a one-day duration. Maximum precipitation for different return periods is estimated by using statistical approaches such as Gumble and Log-Pearson type-III (LP-III) distribution. Goodness of fit (GOF) test, chi-square test, correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination were applied to Gumble and LP-III distributions. Results reveal that among statistical approaches, Gumble distribution performed the best result compared to LP-III distribution. Isohyetal maps of the study area at different return periods are produced by using the GIS tool, and PMP in mountainous regions varies from 150 to 320 mm at an average value of 230.83 mm. The ratio of PMP for one-day duration to highest observed rainfall (HOR) varied from 1.08 to 1.29 with an average value of 1.18. An appropriate frequency factor (K_m) is very important which is a function of mean for observed precipitation and PMP for 1-day duration, and K_m values varies from 2.54 to 4.68. The coefficient of variability (C_v) varies from minimum value of 28% to maximum value of 43.35%. It was concluded that the statistical approach gives higher results compared to moisture maximization (MM) approach. In the hydro-meteorological approach, moisture maximization (MM) and wind moisture maximization (WMM) techniques were applied and it was concluded that wind moisture maximization approach gives higher results of PMP as compared to moisture maximization approach as well as for Hershfield technique. Therefore, it is suggested that MM approach is the most favored in the study area for PMP estimation, which leads to acceptable results, compared to WMM and statistical approaches.     

Verification of a new method for evaluation of liquefaction potential analysis

The seismic response of existing earth dams in Iran is important after an earthquake both to provide emergency supplies and to society as well as to ensure structural safety in engineering terms. Better seismic capacity of earth dam results in less structural damage and reduced impacts following an earthquake disaster. Indirect as well as direct costs following earthquakes have gained much attention from both the engineering and socioec onomic research communities in the last few decades. This study is a valuable tool used to study the response of geotechnical structures to infrequent or extreme events such as earthquakes. The Avaj earthquake (2002, Iran) was applied to a series of model tests which was conducted to study the response of soil profiles under seismic loading. The acceleration records at different locations within the soil bed and at its surface along with the settlement records at the surface were used to analyze the soil seismic response. A combination of several software packages with a generated visual user interface computer code by authors named as “Abbas Converter” were employed to evaluate the variation of shear modulus and damping ratio with shear strain amplitude to assess their effects on site response. The proposed method was applied to the Korzan earth dam of Hamedan province in Iran. Site response analysis using the measured shear wave velocity, estimated modulus reduction, and damping ratio as input parameters produced good agreement with the computed site response in this study.     

Geotechnical assessment of ground conditions around a tilted building in Cairo, Egypt using geophysical approaches

The flood plain of the Nile River has been a safe dwelling throughout history. Recently with a growing population and vast growing urbanization, some buildings have started to experience structural damages, which are not related to their construction design, but rather to the ground conditions around the buildings' foundations. Variations in properties of the soil supporting the buildings' foundations such as soil-bearing capacity, moisture content, and scouring may eventually lead to the failure of these buildings. This study is attempting to characterize the variations in the soil properties around the City Star shopping mall, in eastern Cairo, where a large building has tilted over the past few years. This tilting may lead to the collapse of the whole building if it continues at the same rate. An integrated geophysical investigation including multi-channel analysis of surface wave (MASW), ground-penetrating radar (GPR), and 2-D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was used around the affected building to help detect possible causes of deterioration. The GPR data showed a soil-filled layer overlaying a thick bottom layer of higher moisture content. The MASW data revealed a middle layer of relatively low shear wave velocity sandwiched between two relatively high shear wave velocity layers. The ERT data showed an upper low resistivity layer overlying a high resistivity layer. Integrating the interpretations of the three geophysical methods provides a combined model that reflects lateral and vertical variation in the soil properties. This variation becomes dramatic near the tilted corner of the building.     

Role of Geomechanics in Assessing the Feasibility of CO2 Sequestration in Depleted Hydrocarbon Sandstone Reservoirs

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration in depleted sandstone hydrocarbon reservoirs could be complicated by a number of geomechanical problems associated with well drilling, completions, and CO₂ injection. The initial production of hydrocarbons (gas or oil) and the resulting pressure depletion as well as associated reduction in horizontal stresses (e.g., fracture gradient) narrow the operational drilling mud weight window, which could exacerbate wellbore instabilities while infill drilling. Well completions (casing, liners, etc.) may experience solids flowback to the injector wells when injection is interrupted due to CO₂ supply or during required system maintenance. CO₂ injection alters the pressure and temperature in the near wellbore region, which could cause fault reactivation or thermal fracturing. In addition, the injection pressure may exceed the maximum sustainable storage pressure, and cause fracturing and fault reactivation within the reservoirs or bounding formations. A systematic approach has been developed for geomechanical assessments for CO₂ storage in depleted reservoirs. The approach requires a robust field geomechanical model with its components derived from drilling and production data as well as from wireline logs of historical wells. This approach is described in detail in this paper together with a recent study on a depleted gas field in the North Sea considered for CO₂ sequestration. The particular case study shows that there is a limitation on maximum allowable well inclinations, 45° if aligning with the maximum horizontal stress direction and 65° if aligning with the minimum horizontal stress direction, beyond which wellbore failure would become critical while drilling. Evaluation of sanding risks indicates no sand control installations would be needed for injector wells. Fracturing and faulting assessments confirm that the fracturing pressure of caprock is significantly higher than the planned CO₂ injection and storage pressures for an ideal case, in which the total field horizontal stresses increase with the reservoir re-pressurization in a manner opposite to their reduction with the reservoir depletion. However, as the most pessimistic case of assuming the total horizontal stresses staying the same over the CO₂ injection, faulting could be reactivated on a fault with the least favorable geometry once the reservoir pressure reaches approximately 7.7 MPa. In addition, the initial CO₂ injection could lead to a high risk that a fault with a cohesion of less than 5.1 MPa could be activated due to the significant effect of reduced temperature on the field stresses around the injection site.     

Expanding the SDI environment: comparing current spatial data infrastructure with emerging indoor location-based services

The authors compare key elements of the emerging field of Indoor Location-Based Services (Indoor LBS) to those currently found in spatial data infrastructure (SDI) programs. After a brief review of SDIs and Location-Based Services, the corresponding drivers, characteristics and emerging issues within the field of Indoor LBS are introduced and discussed. A comparative framework relates the two in terms of the criteria ‘People’, ‘Data', ‘Technologies', ‘Standards' and ‘Policies/Institutional Arrangements'. After highlighting key similarities and differences, the authors suggested three areas – definition of common framework datasets in Indoor LBS, more effective use of volunteered geographic information by SDI programs and development of appropriate privacy policies by both communities – that may benefit from sharing ‘lessons learned'.     

A framework for a microscale flood damage assessment and visualization for a building using BIM–GIS integration

Flood damage assessment (FDA) is a key component of risk-based method for flood management. In the current FDA approaches, generally the uniqueness of the building is disregarded in the analysis. Therefore, they are unfit for detailed applications in which case-by-case analysis of building damage is an essential requirement. This limitation is compounded by the use of incomplete and often low-quality data inputs about the building and the assumptions and approximations made regarding the geometry and materials of its components. Such shortcomings may result in incomplete and uncertain outcomes. Considering the benefits and increasing use of three-dimensional (3D) urban modeling and Building Information Model in various urban management processes, in this paper, an integrated framework for utilization of detailed 3D building models for the assessment and 3D visualization of flood damage to building according to its distinct behavior against flood is presented. A proof-of-concept demonstration of the framework in a case study underlined the feasibility of implementation of the framework, which can potentially benefit a variety of users and be used as a complementary approach to the current FDA methods for improving the resilience of the community toward floods and their adverse impacts.     

Uncertainty analysis of runoff and sedimentation in a forested watershed using sequential uncertainty fitting method

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin in northern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting(SUFI-2) method to investigate the associated uncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period(1991–2000) with an initial 4-year warm-up period(1987–1990), and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period(2001–2010). The model evaluation indices R~2(the coefficient of determination), NS(the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency), and PBIAS(percent bias) for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows. To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor(a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU) and r-factors(average wideness width of the 95 PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values) were taken into account. The 95 PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factor was 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation coefficients(R~2 and NS) for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78 and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95 PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibration and validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increased number of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonable parameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertainty during the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for assessment of water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices.