Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt

Here we present a set of regional climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In this study, the latest observations and results obtained with state-of-the-art climate models are combined. In addition, regional effects due to ocean dynamics and changes in the Earth’s gravity field induced by melting of land-based ice masses have been taken into account. The climate scenarios are constructed for the target years 2050 and 2100, for both a moderate and a large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature (2 °C and 4 °C in 2100 respectively). The climate scenarios contain contributions from changes in ocean density (global thermal expansion and local steric changes related to changing ocean dynamics) and changes in ocean mass (melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and (minor) terrestrial water-storage contributions). All major components depend on the global temperature rise achieved in the target periods considered. The resulting set of climate scenarios represents our best estimate of twenty-first century sea level rise in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, given the current understanding of the various contributions. For 2100, they yield a local rise of 30 to 55 cm and 40 to 80 cm for the moderate and large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature, respectively.     

Die verteilung der Lichtschwachen Sterne im Offenen Sternhaufen NGC 2477

The relative frequency of the fainter stars increases from the centre of the cluster to the boundary.     

The atmospheric sulfur cycle in ECHAM-4 and its impact on the shortwave radiation

 The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM-4 is coupled to a chemistry model to calculate sulfate mass distribution and the radiative forcing due to sulfate aerosol particles. The model simulates the main components of the hydrological cycle and, hence, it allows an explicit treatment of cloud transformation processes and precipitation scavenging. Two experiments are performed, one with pre-industrial and one with present-day sulfur emissions. In the pre-industrial emission scenario SO₂ is oxidized faster to sulfate and the in-cloud oxidation via the reaction with ozone is more important than in the present-day scenario. The atmospheric sulfate mass due to anthropogenic emissions is estimated as 0.38 Tg sulfur. The radiative forcing due to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is calculated diagnostically. The backscattering of shortwave radiation (direct effect) as well as the impact of sulfate aerosols on the cloud albedo (indirect effect) is estimated. The model predicts a direct forcing of −0.35 W m^-2 and an indirect forcing of −0.76 W m^-2. Over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere the direct forcing amounts to −0.64 W m^-2. The geographical distribution of the direct and indirect effect is very different. Whereas the direct forcing is strongest over highly polluted continental regions, the indirect forcing over sea exceeds that over land. It is shown that forcing estimates based on monthly averages rather than on instantaneous sulfate pattern overestimate the indirect effect but have little effect on the direct forcing. Received: 16 October 1996/Accepted: 24 October 1996     

Analysis of coupled axial and lateral deformation of roots in soil

Plant roots can help to stabilise slopes. Existing analytical models to predict their mechanical contribution are however limited: they typically focus on the ultimate limit state, employ various empirical factors, and ignore much of the underlying root-soil interaction. A new model was developed based on large deflection Euler-Bernoulli elastic beam theory that can be used to study the mobilisation of root strength under various loading conditions (direct shear and pull-out). Both lateral and axial loading of the root by the soil were incorporated, based on existing methodologies for foundation piles (p-y and t-z curves). The model is able to take the key parameters into account (root biomechanical properties, root architectural properties, and soil properties) while remaining quick to solve using a numerical boundary value problem solver. The model was compared with experimental direct shear test data using various root analogues (rubber, plastic, and wood) in dry sand with various densities and effective stress levels and was able to accurately predict the measured shear force-displacement behaviour. Comparison with experimentally measured pull-out force-displacement curves using rubber and wooden root analogues with various architectures in dry and partially saturated sands was also satisfactory. In the future, this model can aid with addressing long-standing problems in the root-reinforcement community: quantifying the effect of (sequential) mobilisation of root strength in direct shear, the effect of the angle at which the root crosses a shear plane, the effect of root topology on root-reinforcement or the effect of root bending, and root shear shear forces on root-reinforcement.     

Sensitivity of the thermohaline circulation in coupled oceanic GCM — atmospheric EBM experiments

We analyze the sensitivity of the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC) regarding perturbations in fresh water flux for a range of coupled oceanic general circulation — atmospheric energy balance models. The energy balance model (EBM) predicts surface air temperature and fresh water flux and contains the feedbacks due to meridional transports of sensible and latent heat. In the coupled system we examine a negative perturbation in run-off into the southern ocean and analyze the role of changed atmospheric heat transports and fresh water flux. With mixed boundary conditions (fixed air temperature and fixed surface fresh water fluxes) the response is characterized by a completely different oceanic heat transport than in the reference case. On the other hand, the surface heat flux remains roughly constant when the air temperature can adjust in a model where no anomalous atmospheric transports are allowed. This gives an artificially stable system with nearly unchanged oceanic heat transport. However, if meridional heat transports in the atmosphere are included, the sensitivity of the system lies between the two extreme cases. We find that changes in fresh water flux are unimportant for the THC in the coupled system.     

Stable isotopes of carbon dioxide in soil gas over massive sulfide mineralization at Crandon, Wisconsin

Stable isotope ratios of oxygen and carbon were determined for CO₂ in soil gas in the vicinity of the massive sulfide deposit at Crandon, Wisconsin with the objective of determining the source of anomalously high CO₂ concentrations detected previously by McCarthy et al. (1986). Values of δ¹³C in soil gas CO₂ from depths between 0.5 and 1.0 m were found to range from −12.68‰ to −20.03‰ (PDB). Organic carbon from the uppermost meter of soil has δ¹³C between −24.1 and −25.8‰ (PDB), indicating derivation from plant species with the C₃ (Calvin) type of photosynthetic pathway. Microbial decomposition of the organic carbon and root respiration from C₃ and C₄ (Hatch-Slack) plants, together with atmospheric CO₂ are the likely sources of carbon in soil gas CO₂. Values of δ¹⁸O in soil-gas CO₂ range from 32 to 38‰ (SMOW). These δ¹⁸O values are intermediate between that calculated for CO₂ gas in isotopic equilibrium with local groundwaters and that for atmospheric CO₂. The δ¹⁸O data indicate that atmospheric CO₂ has been incorporated by mixing or diffusion. Any CO₂ generated by microbial oxidation of organic matter has equilibrated its oxygen isotopes with the local groundwaters.The isotopic composition of soil-gas CO₂ taken from directly above the massive sulfide deposit was not distinguishable from that of background samples taken 1 to 2 km away. No enrichment of the δ¹³C value of soil-gas CO₂ was observed, contrary to what would be expected if the anomalous CO₂ were derived from the dissolution of Proterozoic marine limestone country rock or of Paleozoic limestone clasts in glacial till. Therefore, it is inferred that root respiration and decay of C₃ plant material were responsible for most CO₂ generation both in the vicinity of the massive sulfide and in the “background” area, on the occasion of our sampling. Interpretation of our data is complicated by the effects of rainfall, which significantly reduced the magnitude of the CO₂ anomaly. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possible mechanism of carbonate dissolution driven by pyrite oxidation, as proposed by Lovell et al. (1983) and McCarthy et al. (1986). Further work is needed on seasonal and daily variations of CO₂ concentrations and stable isotope ratios in various hydrogeologic and ecologic settings so that more effective sampling strategies can be developed for mineral exploration using soil gases.     

Characteristic features of air ions at Mace Head on the west coast of Ireland

Coastal nucleation events and behavior of cluster ions were characterized through the measurements of air ion mobility distributions at the Mace Head research station on the west coast of Ireland in 2006. We measured concentrations of cluster ions and charged aerosol particles in the size range of 0.34–40 nm. These measurements allow us to characterize freshly nucleated charged particles with diameters smaller than 3 nm. The analysis shows that bursts of intermediate ions (1.6–7 nm) are a frequent phenomenon in the marine coastal environment. Intermediate ion concentrations were generally close to zero, but during some nucleation episodes the concentrations increased to several hundreds per cm³. Nucleation events occurred during most of the measurement days. We classified all days into one of seven classes according to the occurrence and type of new particle formation. Nucleation events were observed during 207 days in 2006, most prominently in the spring and summer months. Rain-induced events, in turn, were observed during 132 days. Particle formation and growth events mostly coincided with the presence of low tide. Also small cluster ions (0.34–1.6 nm) were characterized. Average concentrations of small ions were 440 cm^− 3 for the negative ions and 423 cm^− 3 for the positive ions. Average mean mobilities of small ions were 1.86 cm²V^− 1s^− 1 and 1.49 cm²V^− 1s^− 1 for the negative and positive polarities, respectively. Concentrations of small ions were observed to be strongly dependent on the variations of meteorological parameters including wind speed and direction.     

Alteration of a pelagic chalk below a paleokarst surface,Oxford, South Island,New Zealand

A small isolated outlier of Lower Oligocene chalk, which grades upwards into what was originally a sandy marl, has been truncated by a paleokarst surface, which is overlain by cross-bedded, well-sorted glauconitic sands. A sandy clay horizon (probably originally tuffaceous) and a basaltic lava flow of probable Miocene age cap the local sequence. Below the paleokarst surface and roughly parallel to it, the original sediment has been intensely altered to an average depth of 1.5 m. The alteration front is sharply defined, even where it extends along the walls of glauconitic sand-filled fissures in the chalk.In the alteration zone, the chalk has been entirely replaced by silica (opal-CT, largely in the form of lepispheres). The calcareous fraction of the marl has been replaced by montmorillonite and clinoptilolite. Rounded gravel clasts (largely basaltic) in the base of the overlying glauconitic sands also have been replaced (by montmorillonite), which suggests that all alteration followed deposition of the sands. However, neither the glauconite nor any other mineral in the sands appears highly altered. Similarly, the quartz grains show no evidence of dissolution or silica precipitation. Preservation of most silica sponge spicules, the only siliceous microfossils in the chalk, indicates that the source of the silica was extraneous to the carbonate sediments.Migrating interstitial liquid, largely confined to the sands between the impervious cap of sandy clay plus basalt and the porous but less permeable chalk, is inferred to have been the causal agent for the replacement. Silica, and any other components necessary for the formation of opal-CT, montmorillonite and clinoptilolite, were probably derived by chemical alteration of the capping volcanics in a groundwater regimen. Replacement reactions in the chalk and marl presumably were dependent on the original presence of calcium carbonate, and apart from montmorillonitization of volcanic material, occurred only where this compound was present.