Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models

The coastal zones are facing the prospect of changing storm surge statistics due to anthropogenic climate change. In the present study, we examine these prospects for the North Sea based on numerical modelling. The main tool is the barotropic tide-surge model TRIMGEO (Tidal Residual and Intertidal Mudflat Model) to derive storm surge climate and extremes from atmospheric conditions. The analysis is carried out by using an ensemble of four 30-year atmospheric regional simulations under present-day and possible future-enhanced greenhouse gas conditions. The atmospheric regional simulations were prepared within the EU project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). The research strategy of PRUDENCE is to compare simulations of different regional models driven by the same global control and climate change simulations. These global conditions, representative for 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 were prepared by the Hadley Center based on the IPCC A2 SRES scenario. The results suggest that under future climatic conditions, storm surge extremes may increase along the North Sea coast towards the end of this century. Based on a comparison between the results of the different ensemble members as well as on the variability estimated from a high-resolution storm surge reconstruction of the recent decades it is found that this increase is significantly different from zero at the 95% confidence level for most of the North Sea coast. An exception represents the East coast of the UK which is not affected by this increase of storm surge extremes.     

Spectral and geological study of the sulfate-rich region of West Candor Chasma, Mars

Sulfates have been discovered by the OMEGA spectrometer in different locations of the planet Mars. They are strongly correlated to light toned layered deposits in the equatorial regions. West Candor Chasma is the canyon with the thickest stack of layers and one with the largest area covered by sulfates. A detailed study coupling mineralogy derived from OMEGA spectral data and geology derived from HRSC imager and other datasets leads to some straightforward issues. The monohydrated sulfate kieserite is found mainly over heavily eroded scarps of light toned material. It likely corresponds to a mineral present in the initial rock formed either during formation and diagenesis of sediments, or during hydrothermal alteration at depth, because it is typically found on outcrops that are eroded and steep. Polyhydrated sulfates, that match any Ca-, Na-, Fe-, or Mg-sulfates with more than one water molecule, are preferentially present on less eroded and darker outcrops than outcrops of kieserite. These variations can be the result of a diversity in the composition and/or of the rehydration of kieserite on surfaces with longer exposure. The latter possibility of rehydration in the current, or recent, atmosphere suggests the low surface temperatures preserve sulfates from desiccation, and, also can rehydrate part of them. Strong signatures of iron oxides are present on sulfate-rich scarps and at the base of layered deposits scarps. They are correlated with TES gray hematite signature and might correspond to iron oxides present in the rock as sand-size grains, or possibly larger concretions, that are eroded and transported down by gravity at the base of the scarp. Pyroxenes are present mainly on sand dunes in the low lying terrains. Pyroxene is strongly depleted or absent in the layered deposits. When mixed with kieserite, local observations favor a spatial mixing with dunes over layered deposits. Sulfates such as those detected in the studied area require the presence of liquid water to form by precipitation, either in an intermittent lacustrine environment or by hydrothermal fluid circulation. Both possibilities require the presence of sulfur-rich groundwater to explain fluid circulation. The elevation of the uppermost sulfate signatures suggests the presence of aquifers up to 2.5 km above datum, only 1 km below the plateau surface.     

The erosion history of the Central Alps: evidence from zircon fission track data of the foreland basin sediments

Fission track dating on detrital zircons of Alpine debris in the Swiss molasse basin provides information about the erosion history of the Central Alps and the thermal evolution of source terrains. During Oligocene times, only sedimentary cover nappes, and Austroalpine basement units were eroded. Incision into Austroalpine basement units is indicated by increasing importance of Cretaceous cooling ages in granite pebbles upsection. Erosion of Penninic basement units started between 25 and 20 Ma. Early Oligocene zircon FT ages show that Penninic basement units were exposed at ∼20 Ma. Deeper Penninic units of the Lepontine Dome became exposed first at ∼14 Ma, contemporaneously with the opening of the Tauern window in the Eastern Alps. A middle Miocene cooling rate of 40 °C Myr⁻¹ is deduced for the Lower Penninic units of the Lepontine Dome.     

Evidence for enhanced hydration on the northern flank of Olympus Mons, Mars

In this paper we report about a small region on the northern scarp of Olympus Mons showing an increase of the 3 μm hydration band in the OMEGA spectra, together with low superficial temperatures. Although water ice clouds can occurs on the flank of big martian volcanoes, radiative transfer modeling indicates that atmospheric water ice alone cannot justify the shape of the observed band. A fit of the 1.9–3 μm absorption features is obtained by hypothesizing that the study region consists of a mixture of dust and water ice covered by an optically thin (τ=0.08 at 3 μm) layer of dust. Thermal modeling also suggests that water ice in this region may be stable during most of the martian year due to the saturation of the atmosphere. If water ice is responsible for the observed spectral behavior, it might consist of a number of ice or snow patches possibly deposited in small depressions.     

Mineralization of vestimentiferan tubes at methane seeps on the Congo deep-sea fan

Vestimentiferan tube worms are prominent members of modern methane seep communities and are totally reliant as adults on symbiotic sulphide-oxidizing bacteria for their nutrition. The sulphide is produced in the sediment by a biochemical reaction called the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). A well-studied species from the Gulf of Mexico shows that seep vestimentiferans ‘mine’ sulphide from the sediment using root-like, thin walled, permeable posterior tube extensions, which can also be used to pump sulphate and possibly hydrogen ions from the soft tissue back into the sediment to increase the local rate of AOM. The ‘root-balls’ of exhumed seep vestimentiferans are intimately associated with carbonate nodules, which are a result of AOM. We have studied vestimentiferan specimens and associated carbonates from seeps at the Kouilou pockmark field on the Congo deep-sea fan and find that some of the posterior ‘root’ tubes of living specimens are enclosed with carbonate indurated sediment and other, empty examples are partially or completely replaced by the carbonate mineral aragonite. This replacement occurs from the outside of the tube wall inwards and leaves fine-scale relict textures of the original organic tube wall. The process of mineralization is unknown, but is likely a result of post-mortem microbial decay of the tube wall proteins by microorganisms or the precipitation from locally high flux of AOM derived carbonate ions. The aragonite-replaced tubes from the Kouilou pockmarks show similar features to carbonate tubes in ancient seep deposits and make it more likely that many of these fossil tubes are those of vestimentiferans. These observations have implications for the supposed origination of this group, based on molecular divergence estimates.     

Experimental evidence for an effect of early-diagenetic interaction between labile and refractory marine sedimentary organic matter on nitrogen dynamics

In most natural sedimentary systems labile and refractory organic material (OM) occur concomitantly. Little, however, is known on how different kinds of OM interact and how such interactions affect early diagenesis in sediments. In a simple sediment experiment, we investigated how interactions of OM substrates of different degradability affect benthic nitrogen (N) dynamics. Temporal evolution of a set of selected biogeochemical parameters was monitored in sandy sediment over 116 days in three experimental set-ups spiked with labile OM (tissue of Mytilus edulis), refractory OM (mostly aged Zostera marina and macroalgae), and a 1:1 mixture of labile and refractory OM. The initial amounts of particulate organic carbon (POC) were identical in the three set-ups. To check for non-linear interactions between labile and refractory OM, the evolution of the mixture system was compared with the evolution of the simple sum of the labile and refractory systems, divided by two. The sum system is the experimental control where labile and refractory OM are virtually combined but not allowed to interact. During the first 30 days there was evidence for net dissolved-inorganic-nitrogen (DIN) production followed by net DIN consumption. (Here ‘DIN’ is the sum of ammonium, nitrite and nitrate.) After  30 days a quasi steady state was reached. Non-linear interactions between the two types of OM were reflected by three main differences between the early-diagenetic evolutions of nitrogen dynamics of the mixture and sum (control) systems: (1) In the mixture system the phases of net DIN production and consumption commenced more rapidly and were more intense. (2) The mixture system was shifted towards a more oxidised state of DIN products [as indicated by increased (nitrite + nitrate)/(ammonium) ratios]. (3) There was some evidence that more OM, POC and particulate nitrogen were preserved in the mixture system. That is, in the mixture system more particulate OM was preserved while a higher proportion of the decomposed particulate N was converted into inorganic N. It can be concluded that during the first days and weeks of early diagenesis the magnitude and composition of the flux of decompositional dissolved N-compounds from sediments into the overlying water was influenced by non-linear interactions of OM substrates of different degradability. Given these experimental results it is likely that the relative spatial distributions of OM of differing degradability in sediments control the magnitude and composition of the return flux of dissolved N-bearing compounds from sediments into the overlying water column.     

Molecular and isotopic partitioning of low-molecular-weight hydrocarbons during migration and gas hydrate precipitation in deposits of a high-flux seepage site

Detailed knowledge of the extent of post-genetic modifications affecting shallow submarine hydrocarbons fueled from the deep subsurface is fundamental for evaluating source and reservoir properties. We investigated gases from a submarine high-flux seepage site in the anoxic Eastern Black Sea in order to elucidate molecular and isotopic alterations of low-molecular-weight hydrocarbons (LMWHC) associated with upward migration through the sediment and precipitation of shallow gas hydrates. For this, near-surface sediment pressure cores and free gas venting from the seafloor were collected using autoclave technology at the Batumi seep area at 845 m water depth within the gas hydrate stability zone.Vent gas, gas from pressure core degassing, and from hydrate dissociation were strongly dominated by methane (> 99.85 mol.% of ∑[C₁–C₄, CO₂]). Molecular ratios of LMWHC (C₁/[C₂ + C₃] > 1000) and stable isotopic compositions of methane (δ¹³C = ? 53.5‰ V-PDB; D/H around ? 175‰ SMOW) indicated predominant microbial methane formation. C₁/C₂₊ ratios and stable isotopic compositions of LMWHC distinguished three gas types prevailing in the seepage area. Vent gas discharged into bottom waters was depleted in methane by > 0.03 mol.% (∑[C₁–C₄, CO₂]) relative to the other gas types and the virtual lack of ¹⁴C–CH₄ indicated a negligible input of methane from degradation of fresh organic matter. Of all gas types analyzed, vent gas was least affected by molecular fractionation, thus, its origin from the deep subsurface rather than from decomposing hydrates in near-surface sediments is likely.As a result of the anaerobic oxidation of methane, LMWHC in pressure cores in top sediments included smaller methane fractions [0.03 mol.% ∑(C₁–C₄, CO₂)] than gas released from pressure cores of more deeply buried sediments, where the fraction of methane was maximal due to its preferential incorporation in hydrate lattices. No indications for stable carbon isotopic fractionations of methane during hydrate crystallization from vent gas were found. Enrichments of ¹⁴C–CH₄ (1.4 pMC) in short cores relative to lower abundances (max. 0.6 pMC) in gas from long cores and gas hydrates substantiates recent methanogenesis utilizing modern organic matter deposited in top sediments of this high-flux hydrocarbon seep area.