Multiforced statistical assessments of greenhouse-gas-induced surface air temperature change 1890–1985

Based on univariate correlation and coherence analyses and considering the physical basis of the relationships, a simple multiforced (multiple) statistical concept is used which correlates observational climatic time series simultaneously with volcanic, solar, ENSO, and the anthropogenic greenhouse gases forcing. This is appropriate to remove some natural climate noise in the observed data and to evaluate the components (signals) possibly due to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing (CO₂, or equivalent CO₂ implying additional gases) during industrial time. In this paper, we apply this technique to 100 global box data time series 1890–1985, of the surface air temperature, using observed data from Hansen and Lebedeff. The results are presented in terms of latitudinal-seasonal and regional trends, where the observed trend patterns are compared with the hypothetical signals (statistical assessments) possibly due to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. These latter signals can be amplified to enable a comparison with corresponding results from general circulation model (GCM) CO₂ doubling experiments. These observed-statistical assessments lead to results which are, at least qualitatively and in respect to the zonal mean temperatures, very similar to some GCM experiments indicating the maximum CO₂ doubling signals (statistical assessment > 12 K) in the arctic winter. However, these signals are moderate in the tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere (global average 2.8–4.4 K). As far as the industrial signals are concerned (observed period) these signals are somewhat larger (maximum 7 K, global average 0.5–0.9 K) than the observed trends (maximum 5 K, global average 0.5 K). Phase shifts of cause and effect may amplify these signals but are very uncertain.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dümenil     

Air Pollution Transport in an Alpine Valley: Results From Airborne and Ground-Based Observations

An observational dataset from a wintertime field campaign in the Inn Valley, Austria, is analysed in order to study mechanisms of air pollution transport in an Alpine valley. The results illustrate three types of mechanisms: transport by a density current, back-and-forth transport by valley winds, and transport by slope winds. The first type is associated with an air mass difference along the valley. Cooler air located in the lower part of the valley behaves like a density current and produces the advection of pollutants by upvalley winds. In the second type, strong horizontal gradients in pollution concentrations exist close to ground. Multiple wind reversals result in a back-and-forth transport of pollutants by weak valley winds. In the third type, upslope winds during daytime decrease low-level pollution concentrations and cause the formation of elevated pollution layers.     

Holocene climate evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin,Mongolia

In order to evaluate the Holocene palaeoenvironmental evolution of the Ugii Nuur basin, central Mongolia, investigations on chemical and mineralogical properties of lacustrine sediments were carried out on a 630 cm sediment core from lake Ugii Nuur. The interpretation of the record is based on a principal component analysis （PCA） of the elemental composition of the samples. The results show that lacustrine deposition started at 10.6 kyr BP. Low lake level conditions were identified during the Early Holocene （10.6-7.9 kyr BP）. The Mid Holocene （7.9-4.2 kyr BP） was characterized by generally higher lake levels and thus higher moisture supply, but it experienced strong climatic fluctuations. Arid conditions prevailed from 4.2-2.8 kyr BP and were followed by a stable, more humid phase until today.     

Partitioning of semi-soluble organic compounds between the water phase and oil droplets in produced water

When selecting produced water treatment technologies, one should focus on reducing the major contributors to the total environmental impact. These are dispersed oil and semi-soluble hydrocarbons, alkylated phenols, and added chemicals. Experiments with produced water have been performed offshore on the Statoil operated platforms Gullfaks C and Statfjord B. These experiments were designed to find how much of the environmentally relevant compounds were dissolved in the water phase and not associated to the dispersed oil in the produced water. Results show that the distribution between the dispersed oil and the water phase varies highly for the different components groups. For example the concentration of PAHs and the C6-C9 alkylated phenols is strongly correlated to the content of dispersed oil. Therefore, the technologies enhancing the removal of dispersed oil have a higher potential for reducing the environmental impact of the produced water than previously considered.     

Hydrological modelling for assessing spatio-temporal groundwater recharge variations in the water-stressed Amathole Water Supply System,Eastern Cape,South Africa

To increase the resilience of regional water supply systems in South Africa in the face of anticipated climatic changes and a constant increase in water demand, water supply sources require diversification. Many water-stressed metropolitan regions in South Africa depend largely on surface water to cover their water demand. While climatic and river discharge data is widely available in these regions, information on groundwater resources – which could support supply source diversification – is scarce. Groundwater recharge is a key parameter that is used to estimate groundwater amounts that can be sustainably exploited at a sub-watershed level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a reliable hydrological modelling routine that enables the assessment of regional spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge to discern the most promising areas for groundwater development. Accordingly, we present a semi-distributed hydrological modelling approach that incorporates water balance routines coupled with baseflow modelling techniques to yield spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge on a regional level. The approach is demonstrated for the actively managed catchment areas of the Amathole Water Supply System situated in a semi-arid part of the Eastern Cape of South Africa. In the investigated study area, annual groundwater recharge exhibits a high spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is estimated to vary between ~0.5% and 8% of annual rainfall. Despite some uncertainties induced by limited data availability, calibration and validation of the model were found to be satisfactory and yielded model results similar to (point) data of annual groundwater recharge reported in earlier studies. Our approach is therefore found to derive crucial information for efficiently targeting more detailed groundwater exploration studies and could work as a blueprint for orientating groundwater potential exploration in similar environments.