临界转换的早期预警信号

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。     

The Poseidon Operational Tool for the Prediction of Floating Pollutant Transport

In this work the development and the application of an operational management tool for the Greek Seas is described. This tool consists of a three-dimensional floating pollutant prediction model coupled with a weather, a hydrodynamic and a wave model in order to track the movements and the spreading of the pollutants and indicate those coastal areas which might be affected. The tool is part of the Poseidon system which has been designed to provide real time data and forecasts for marine environmental conditions in the Greek Seas. In this paper, we present four case studies based on realistic scenarios that show the value of the application for long-term strategic planning and short-term decision making in oil spill accidents.     

Tensor time domain electromagnetic resistivity measurements at Ngatamariki geothermal field, New Zealand

Experimental measurements in the Ngatamariki geothermal field, North Island, New Zealand were made to test the applicability of the time domain electromagnetic method for detailed investigation of the resistivity structure within a geothermal field. Low-frequency square wave signals were transmitted through three grounded bipole current sources sited about 8 km from the measurement lines. Despite high levels of electrical noise, transient electric field vectors could be determined reliably for times between 0.02 and 3.3 s after each step in the source current. Instantaneous apparent resistivity tensors were then calculated. Apparent resistivity pseudosections along the two measurement lines show smooth variations of resistivity from site to site. Over most of the field the images consistently show a three-layer resistivity structure with a conductive middle layer (3–10 Ωm) representing the conductive upper part of the thermal reservoir. A deep-seated region of low resistivity in the northwest of the field may indicate a conductive structure at about 1 km associated with a deeper diorite intrusion. Measurements sited closer than about 100 m to drillholes appear to have been disturbed by metallic casing in the holes. A change in resistivity structure in the east of the field may indicate a major geological or hydrothermal boundary.     

Principal axes of m-DOF structures PartⅠ:Static loading

This paper is the first in a two-part series that discusses the principal axes of M-DOF structures subjected to static and dynamic loads. The primary purpose of this series is to understand the magnitude of the dynamic response of structures to enable better design of structures and control modification devices/systems. Under idealized design conditions, the structural responses are obtained by using single direction input ground motions in the direction of the intended control devices/systems,and by assuming that the responses of the structure is decoupleable in three mutually perpendicular directions. This standard practice has been applied to both new and retrofitted structures using various seismic protective systems. Very limited information is available on the effects of neglecting the impact of directional couplings (cross effects - of which torsion is a component) of the dynamic response of structures. In order to quantify such effects, it is necessary to examine the principal axes of structures under both static and dynamic loading.This first paper deals with quantitative definitions of principal axes and "cross effects" of three-dimensional structures under static load by using linear algebra. It shows theoretically that, for three-dimensional structures, such principal axes rarely exist. Under static loading conditions, the cross effect is typically small and negligible from the viewpoint of engineering applications. However, it provides the theoretical base for subsequent quantification of the response couplings under dynamic loads, which is reported in part Ⅱ of this series.     

Estimation of peak relative velocity and peak absolute acceleration of linear SDOF systems

In the seismic analysis and design of structures, the true velocity and absolute acceleration are usually approximated by their corresponding pseudo-values. This approach is simple and works well for structures with small damping (say, less than 15%). When the damping of a structure is enhanced for the purpose of response reduction, it may result in large analysis and design errors. Based on theory of random vibration and the established mechanism of seismic response spectra analysis, a method is developed (1) to predict the relative velocity spectra with any damping ratio level directly from the 5% standard pseudo-acceleration spectrum; and (2) to estimate the peak absolute acceleration. The accuracy of both is validated by using two selected ensembles of ground motion records.     

Impact of Doppler Radar Wind in Simulating the Intensity and Propagation of Rainbands Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Using MM5-3DVAR System

Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.     

Fossil-pollen evidence for abrupt climate changes during the past 18 000 years in eastern North America

A quantitative measure of the rate at which fossil-pollen abundances changed over the last 18 000 years at 18 sites spread across eastern North America distinguishes local from regionally synchronous changes. Abrupt regional changes occurred at most sites in late-glacial time (at 13700, 12 300, and 10000 radiocarbon yr BP) and during the last 1000 years. The record of abrupt late-glacial vegetation changes in eastern North America correlates well with abrupt global changes in ice-sheet volume, mountain snow-lines, North Atlantic deep-water production, atmospheric CO₂, and atmospheric dust, although the palynological signal varies from site to site. Changes in vegetation during most of the Holocene, although locally significant, were not regionally synchronous. The analysis reveals non-alpine evidence for Neoglacial/Little Ice Age climate change during the last 1000 years, which was the only time during the Holocene when climate change was of sufficient magnitude to cause a synchronous vegetational response throughout the subcontinent. During the two millennia preceding this widespread synchronous change, the rate of change at all sites was low and the average rate of change was the lowest of the Holocene.Contribution to Clima Locarno Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Apparent counter-gradient heat fluxes generated by atmospheric waves

In studies of turbulence, tower data are used to measure vertical fluxes of momentum and heat generated by correlations in the fluctuating fields. Similar time averages of wu and w may be computed for an interval of wave activity observed at an instrumented tower. However, it is shown that such measurements do not necessarily correspond to the conventional Reynold's stresses or vertical heat fluxes. And waves can appear to have non-zero and even countergradient fluxes when proper averages show no fluxes at all.These spurious fluxes are generated by the method of analysis, a Fourier series performed on a finite time interval. Any background disturbance that is not strictly confined to the interval will generate a spurious wave spectrum. In particular, long-period waves will generate terms that interfere with the true high frequency waves to give false wave fluxes. The theoretical findings of this paper provide a ready explanation of tower data that would otherwise appear to conflict with conventional wave theory.