Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

Behaviour of deep immersed tunnel under combined normal fault rupture deformation and subsequent seismic shaking

Immersed tunnels are particularly sensitive to tensile and compressive deformations such as those imposed by a normal seismogenic fault rupturing underneath, and those generated by the dynamic response due to seismic waves. The paper investigates the response of a future 70 m deep immersed tunnel to the consecutive action of a major normal fault rupturing in an earthquake occurring in the basement rock underneath the tunnel, and a subsequent strong excitation from a different large-magnitude seismic event that may occur years later. Non-linear finite elements model the quasi-static fault rupture propagation through the thick soil deposit overlying the bedrock and the ensuing interaction of the rupture with the immersed tunnel. It is shown that despite imposed bedrock offset of 2 m, net tension or excessive compression between tunnel segments could be avoided with a suitable design of the joint gaskets. Then, the already deformed (“injured”) structure is subjected to strong asynchronous seismic shaking. The thick-walled tunnel is modelled as a 3-D massive flexural beam connected to the soil through properly-calibrated nonlinear interaction springs and dashpots, the supports of which are subjected to the free-field acceleration time histories. The latter, obtained with 1-D wave propagation analysis, are then modified to account for wave passage effects. The joints between tunnel segments are modeled with special non-linear hyper-elastic elements, properly accounting for their 7-bar longitudinal hydrostatic pre-stressing. Sliding is captured with special gap elements. The effect of segment length and joint properties is explored parametrically. A fascinating conclusion emerges in all analysed cases for the joints between segments that were differentially deformed after the quasi-static fault rupture: upon subsequent very strong seismic shaking, overstressed joints de-compress and understressed joints re-compress—a “healing” process that leads to a more uniform deformation profile along the tunnel. This is particularly beneficial for the precariously de-compressed joint gaskets. Hence, the safety of the immersed tunnel improves with “subsequent” strong seismic shaking!     

Cross-shelf transport into nearshore waters due to shoaling internal tides in San Pedro Bay, CA

In the summer of 2001, a coastal ocean measurement program in the southeastern portion of San Pedro Bay, CA, was designed and carried out. One aim of the program was to determine the strength and effectiveness of local cross-shelf transport processes. A particular objective was to assess the ability of semidiurnal internal tidal currents to move suspended material a net distance across the shelf. Hence, a dense array of moorings was deployed across the shelf to monitor the transport patterns associated with fluctuations in currents, temperature and salinity. An associated hydrographic program periodically monitored synoptic changes in the spatial patterns of temperature, salinity, nutrients and bacteria. This set of measurements show that a series of energetic internal tides can, but do not always, transport subthermocline water, dissolved and suspended material from the middle of the shelf into the surfzone. Effective cross-shelf transport occurs only when (1) internal tides at the shelf break are strong and (2) subtidal currents flow strongly downcoast. The subtidal downcoast flow causes isotherms to tilt upward toward the coast, which allows energetic, nonlinear internal tidal currents to carry subthermocline waters into the surfzone. During these events, which may last for several days, the transported water remains in the surfzone until the internal tidal current pulses and/or the downcoast subtidal currents disappear. This nonlinear internal tide cross-shelf transport process was capable of carrying water and the associated suspended or dissolved material from the mid-shelf into the surfzone, but there were no observation of transport from the shelf break into the surfzone. Dissolved nutrients and suspended particulates (such as phytoplankton) transported from the mid-shelf into the nearshore region by nonlinear internal tides may contribute to nearshore algal blooms, including harmful algal blooms that occur off local beaches.     

A simplified model for lateral response of large diameter caisson foundations—Linear elastic formulation

The transient response of large embedded foundation elements of length-to-diameter aspect ratio D/B=2–6 is characterized by a complex stress distribution at the pier–soil interface that cannot be adequately represented by means of existing models for shallow foundations or flexible piles. On the other hand, while three-dimensional (3D) numerical solutions are feasible, they are infrequently employed in practice due to their associated cost and effort. Prompted by the scarcity of simplified models for design in current practice, we here develop an analytical model that accounts for the multitude of soil resistance mechanisms mobilized at their base and circumference, while retaining the advantages of simplified methodologies for the design of non-critical facilities. The characteristics of soil resistance mechanisms and corresponding complex spring functions are developed on the basis of finite element simulations, by equating the stiffness matrix terms and/or overall numerically computed response to the analytical expressions derived by means of the proposed Winkler model. Sensitivity analyses are performed for the optimization of the truncated numerical domain size, the optimal finite element size and the far-field dynamic boundary conditions to avoid spurious wave reflections. Numerical simulations of the transient system response to vertically propagating shear waves are next successfully compared to the analytically predicted response. Finally, the applicability of the method is assessed for soil profiles with depth-varying properties. The formulation of frequency-dependent complex spring functions including material damping is also described, while extension of the methodology to account for nonlinear soil behavior and soil–foundation interface separation is described in the conclusion and is being currently investigated.     

临界转换的早期预警信号

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。     

An XMM‐Newton survey of broad iron lines in AGN

We report on the iron Kα line properties of a sample of Seyfert galaxies observed with the XMM‐Newton EPIC pn instrument. Using a systematic and uniform analysis, we find that complexity at iron‐K is extremely common in the XMM‐Newton spectra. Once appropriate soft X‐ray absorption, narrow 6.4 keV emission and associated Compton reflection are accounted for, ∼75% of the sample show an improvement when a further component is introduced. The typical properties of the broad emission are both qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with previous results from ASCA. The complexity is in general very well described by relativistic accretion disk models. In most cases the characteristic emission radius is constrained to be within ∼50R _g, where strong gravitational effects become important. We find in about 1/3 of the sample the accretion disk interpretation is strongly favoured over competing models. In a few objects no broad line is apparent. We find evidence for emission within 6R _g in only two cases, both of which exhibit highly complex absorption. Evidence for black hole spin based on the X‐ray spectra therefore remains tentative. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Britain should be part of ESO

The Planetary Society's British Volunteer Team has awarded the TELSTAR Award 98–99 to BBC Radio's The Late Show with Tony & Julie .
Click HERE to view the article.     

Significance of ichnofossils to genetic stratigraphy--Examples from the Cretaceous of Alberta, Canada

Trace fossils represent both sedimentological and paleontological entities, representing a unique blending of potential environmental indicators in the rock record. Trace fossils and trace fossil suites can be employed effectively to aid in the recognition of various discontinuity types and to assist in their genetic interpretation. Ichnology may be employed to resolve surfaces of stratigraphic significance in two main ways: 1) through the identification of discontinuities using substrate-controlled ichnofacies, and 2) through careful analysis of vertical softground (penecontemporaneous) ichnologic successions (analogous to facies successions). Ichnological analysis is a valuable tool in genetic stratigraphic studies. Integrating the data derived from substrate-controlled ichnofacies with paleoecological data from vertical ichnologic successions greatly enhances the recognition and interpretation of a wide variety of stratigraphic surfaces. When this is coupled with conventional facies analysis and sequence stratigraphy, a powerful approach to the interpretation of the rock record is generated.     

Magnetic field gradient and flare: study of a small flare in NOAA 8038

Active region NOAA 8038 was observed from 10 to 13 May, 1997 using the USO solar video magnetograph. During this period, the active region was mostly inactive, and gave rise to only a single notable flare of 1N/C1.3 class on May 12, 1997/04:45 UT. The flare occurred in a weak field location, but new emerging fluxes were observed prior to the flare onset. Horizontal motions of the network photospheric magnetic fluxes were inferred using USO and SOHO magnetograms, and velocities in the range 300–800 m s^–1 were estimated. The initial flare brightening was observed at the flux cancellation site where magnetic field gradients were found to increase. Detailed analyses of flux motions, cancellation and their relation with the flare are presented.     

Relationship of non-potentiality and flaring: Intercomparison for an M-class flare

We have made an attempt to obtain relationship of magnetic shear and vertical currents in NOAA AR7321. Intercomparison of changes observed at several flaring and non-flaring sites associated with an M4/2B flare observed on October 26, 1992 is reported.