Glacial Lake Victoria,a high‐level Antarctic Lake inferred from lacustrine deposits in Victoria Valley

We present evidence of a large lake (Glacial Lake Victoria) that existed in Victoria Valley in the dry valleys region of Antarctica between at least 20 000 and 8600 ¹⁴C yr BP. At its highstands, Glacial Lake Victoria covered 100 km² and was ca. 200 m deep. The chronology for lake‐level changes comes from 87 AMS radiocarbon dates of lacustrine algae preserved in deltas and glaciolacustrine deposits that extend up to 185 m above present‐day lakes on the valley floor. The existence of Glacial Lake Victoria, as well as other large lakes in the dry valleys, indicates a climate regime significantly different from that of today at the last glacial maximum and in the early Holocene. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Cretaceous–Tertiary geology of the Gangdese Arc in the Linzhou area, southern Tibet

Knowledge of the Cretaceous–Tertiary history of upper crustal shortening and magmatism in Tibet is fundamental to placing constraints on when and how the Tibetan plateau formed. In the Lhasa terrane of southern Tibet, the widely exposed angular unconformity beneath uppermost Cretaceous–lower Tertiary volcanic-bearing strata of the Linzizong Formation provides an excellent geologic and time marker to distinguish between deformation that occurred before vs. during the Indo-Asian collision. In the Linzhou area, located  30 km north of the city of Lhasa, a > 3-km-thick section of the Linzizong Formation lies unconformably on Cretaceous and older rocks that were shortened by both northward- and southward-verging structures during the Late Cretaceous. The Linzizong Formation dips northward in the footwall of a north-dipping thrust system that involves Triassic–Jurassic strata and a granite intrusion in the hanging wall. U–Pb zircon geochronologic studies show that the Linzizong Formation ranges in age from 69 Ma to at least 47 Ma and that the hanging wall granite intrusion crystallized at  52 Ma, coeval with dike emplacement into footwall Cretaceous strata. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar thermochronologic studies suggest slow cooling of the granite between 49 and 42 Ma, followed by an episode of accelerated cooling to upper crustal levels beginning at  42 Ma. The onset of rapid cooling was coeval with the cessation of voluminous arc magmatism in southern Tibet and is interpreted be a consequence of either (1) Tertiary thrusting in this region or (2) regional rock uplift and erosion following removal of overthickened Gangdese arc lower crust and upper mantle or break-off of the Neo-Tethyan oceanic slab.     

Infrared spectroscopic and X-ray diffraction characterization of the nature of adsorbed arsenate on ferrihydrite

Fourier transformed infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy was used to characterize arsenate-ferrihydrite sorption solids synthesized at pH 3-8. The speciation of sorbed arsenate was determined based on the As-O stretching vibration bands located at 650-950 cm⁻¹ and O-H stretching vibration bands at 3000-3500 cm⁻¹. The positions of the As-O and O-H stretching vibration bands changed with pH indicating that the nature of surface arsenate species on ferrihydrite was strongly pH dependent. Sorption density and synthesis media (sulfate vs. nitrate) had no appreciable effect. At acidic pH (3, 4), ferric arsenate surface precipitate formed on ferrihydrite and constituted the predominant surface arsenate species. X-ray diffraction (XRD) analyses of he sorption solids synthesized at elevated temperature (75 °C), pH 3 clearly showed the development of crystalline ferric arsenate (i.e. scorodite). In neutral and alkaline media (pH 7, 8), arsenate sorbed as a bidentate surface complex (in both protonated FeO₂As(O)(OH)⁻ and unprotonated forms). For the sorption systems in slightly acidic media (pH 5, 6), both ferric arsenate and surface complex were probably present on ferrihydrite. It was further determined that the incorporated sulfate in ferrihydrite during synthesis was substituted by arsenate and was more easily exchangeable with increasing pH.     

Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models

Abstract

Two dynamical models are used to perform a series of seasonal predictions. One model, referred to as GCM2, was designed as a general circulation model for climate studies, while the second one, SEF, was designed for numerical weather prediction. The seasonal predictions cover the 26‐year period 1969–1994. For each of the four seasons, ensembles of six forecasts are produced with each model, the six runs starting from initial conditions six hours apart. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for the month prior to the start of the forecast is persisted through the three‐month prediction period, and added to a monthly‐varying climatological SST field.

The ensemble‐mean predictions for each of the models are verified independently, and the two ensembles are blended together in two different ways: as a simple average of the two models, denoted GCMSEF, and with weights statistically determined to minimize the mean‐square error (the Best Linear Unbiased Estimate (BLUE) method).

The GCMSEF winter and spring predictions show a Pacific/North American (PNA) response to a warm tropical SST anomaly. The temporal anomaly correlation between the zero‐lead GCMSEF mean‐seasonal predictions and observations of the 500‐hPa height field (Z₅₀₀) shows statistically significant forecast skill over parts of the PNA area for all seasons, but there is a notable seasonal variability in the distribution of the skill. The GCMSEF predictions are more skilful than those of either model in winter, and about as skilful as the better of the two models in the other seasons.

The zero‐lead surface air temperature GCMSEF forecasts over Canada are found to be skilful (a) over the west coast in all seasons except fall, (b) over most of Canada in summer, and (c) over Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec in the fall. In winter the skill of the BLUE forecasts is substantially better than that of the GCMSEF predictions, while for the other seasons the difference in skill is not statistically significant.

When the Z₅₀₀ forecasts are averaged over months two and three of the seasons (one‐month lead predictions), they show skill in winter over the north‐eastern Pacific, western Canada and eastern North America, a skill that comes from those years with strong SST anomalies of the El Niño/La Niña type. For the other seasons, predictions averaged over months two and three show little skill in Z₅₀₀ in the mid‐latitudes. In the tropics, predictive skill is found in Z₅₀₀ in all seasons when a strong SST anomaly of the El Niño/La Niña type is observed. In the absence of SST anomalies of this type, tropical forecast skill is still found over much of the tropics in months two and three of the northern hemisphere spring and summer, but not in winter and fall.     

Long-term variability in the date of monsoon onset over western India

The date of onset of the southwest monsoon in western India is critical for farmers as it influences the timing of crop plantation and the duration of the summer rainy season. Identifying long-term variability in the date of monsoon onset is difficult, however, as onset dates derived from the reanalysis of instrumental rainfall data are only available for the region from 1879. This study uses documentary evidence and newly uncovered instrumental data to reconstruct annual monsoon onset dates for western India for the period 1781–1878, extending the existing record by 97 years. The mean date of monsoon onset over the Mumbai (Bombay) area during the reconstruction period was 10 June with a standard deviation of 6.9 days. This is similar to the mean and standard deviation of the date of monsoon onset derived from instrumental data for the twentieth century. The earliest identified onset date was 23 May (in 1802 and 1839) and the latest 22 June (in 1825). The longer-term perspective provided by this study suggests that the climatic regime that governs monsoon advance over western India did not change substantially from 1781 to 1955. Monsoon onset over Mumbai has occurred at a generally later date since this time. Our results indicate that this change is unprecedented during the last 230 years. Following a discussion of the results, the nature of the relationship between the date of monsoon onset and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is discussed. This relationship is shown to have been stable since 1781.     

Intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability over the tropical summer monsoon region

The SST-precipitation relationship in the intraseasonal variability (ISV) over the Asian monsoon region is examined using recent high quality satellite data and simulations from a state of the art coupled model, the climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). CFSv2 demonstrates high skill in reproducing the spatial distribution of the observed climatological mean summer monsoon precipitation along with its interannual variability, a task which has been a conundrum for many recent climate coupled models. The model also exhibits reasonable skill in simulating coherent northward propagating monsoon intraseasonal anomalies including SST and precipitation, which are generally consistent with observed ISV characteristics. Results from the observations and the model establish the existence of spatial variability in the atmospheric convective response to SST anomalies, over the Asian monsoon domain on intraseasonal timescales. The response is fast over the Arabian Sea, where precipitation lags SST by ~5 days; whereas it is slow over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea, with a lag of ~12 days. The intraseasonal SST anomalies result in a similar atmospheric response across the basins, which consists of a destabilization of the bottom of the atmospheric column, as observed from the equivalent potential temperature anomalies near the surface. However, the presence of a relatively strong surface convergence over the Arabian Sea, due to the presence of a strong zonal gradient in SST, which accelerates the upward motion of the moist air, results in a relatively faster response in terms of the local precipitation anomalies over the Arabian Sea than over the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. With respect to the observations, the ocean–atmosphere coupling is well simulated in the model, though with an overestimation of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, leading to an exaggerated SST-precipitation relationship. A detailed examination points to a systematic bias in the thickness of the mixed layer of the ocean model, which needs to be rectified. A too shallow (deep) mixed layer enhances (suppress) the amplitude of the intraseasonal SST anomalies, thereby amplifying (lessening) the ISV and the active-break phases of the monsoon in the model.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.