Glacial Lake Victoria,a high‐level Antarctic Lake inferred from lacustrine deposits in Victoria Valley

We present evidence of a large lake (Glacial Lake Victoria) that existed in Victoria Valley in the dry valleys region of Antarctica between at least 20 000 and 8600 ¹⁴C yr BP. At its highstands, Glacial Lake Victoria covered 100 km² and was ca. 200 m deep. The chronology for lake‐level changes comes from 87 AMS radiocarbon dates of lacustrine algae preserved in deltas and glaciolacustrine deposits that extend up to 185 m above present‐day lakes on the valley floor. The existence of Glacial Lake Victoria, as well as other large lakes in the dry valleys, indicates a climate regime significantly different from that of today at the last glacial maximum and in the early Holocene. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Role of barotropic mechanism in the development of a monsoon depression: A MONEX study

The role of barotropic processes in the development of a monsoon depression, formed on 5 July 1979 during MONEX observational period, is studied by considering it as a quasi-geostrophic divergent barotropic instability problem of zonal flow of 3 July 1979 at 700 mb level. Numerical solutions are obtained by initial value approach. The preferred wave has a wavelength of 2750 km, an e-folding time of 4.3 days, a period of 6.5 days and an eastward phase speed of 4.9 ms^–1. Structure of preferred wave is found to be in good agreement with the observed horizontal structure of the depression at 700 mb. Poleward momentum transports are found to predominate over equatorward transports.Parts of this paper were presented at the National Symposium on Early Results of MONEX-1979. 9–12 March 1981, in New Delhi, India.     

Gas hydrate systems at Hydrate Ridge offshore Oregon inferred from molecular and isotopic properties of hydrate-bound and void gases

We report and discuss molecular and isotopic properties of hydrate-bound gases from 55 samples and void gases from 494 samples collected during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 204 at Hydrate Ridge offshore Oregon. Gas hydrates appear to crystallize in sediments from two end-member gas sources (deep allochthonous and in situ) as mixtures of different proportions. In an area of high gas flux at the Southern Summit of the ridge (Sites 1248-1250), shallow (0-40 m below the seafloor [mbsf]) gas hydrates are composed of mainly allochthonous mixed microbial and thermogenic methane and a small portion of thermogenic C₂₊ gases, which migrated vertically and laterally from as deep as 2- to 2.5-km depths. In contrast, deep (50-105 mbsf) gas hydrates at the Southern Summit (Sites 1248 and 1250) and on the flanks of the ridge (Sites 1244-1247) crystallize mainly from microbial methane and ethane generated dominantly in situ. A small contribution of allochthonous gas may also be present at sites where geologic and tectonic settings favor focused vertical gas migration from greater depth (e.g., Sites 1244 and 1245). Non-hydrocarbon gases such as CO₂ and H₂S are not abundant in sampled hydrates. The new gas geochemical data are inconsistent with earlier models suggesting that seafloor gas hydrates at Hydrate Ridge formed from gas derived from decomposition of deeper and older gas hydrates. Gas hydrate formation at the Southern Summit is explained by a model in which gas migrated from deep sediments, and perhaps was trapped by a gas hydrate seal at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ). Free gas migrated into the GHSZ when the overpressure in gas column exceeded sealing capacity of overlaying sediments, and precipitated as gas hydrate mainly within shallow sediments. The mushroom-like 3D shape of gas hydrate accumulation at the summit is possibly defined by the gas diffusion aureole surrounding the main migration conduit, the decrease of gas solubility in shallow sediment, and refocusing of gas by carbonate and gas hydrate seals near the seafloor to the crest of the local anticline structure.     

Detrital zircon geochronology of Carboniferous–Cretaceous strata in the Lhasa terrane, Southern Tibet

Sedimentary strata in the Lhasa terrane of southern Tibet record a long but poorly constrained history of basin formation and inversion. To investigate these events, we sampled Palaeozoic and Mesozoic sedimentary rocks in the Lhasa terrane for detrital zircon uranium–lead (U–Pb) analysis. The >700 detrital zircon U–Pb ages reported in this paper provide the first significant detrital zircon data set from the Lhasa terrane and shed new light on the tectonic and depositional history of the region. Collectively, the dominant detrital zircon age populations within these rocks are 100–150, 500–600 and 1000–1400 Ma. Sedimentary strata near Nam Co in central Lhasa are mapped as Lower Cretaceous but detrital zircons with ages younger than 400 Ma are conspicuously absent. The detrital zircon age distribution and other sedimentological evidence suggest that these strata are likely Carboniferous in age, which requires the existence of a previously unrecognized fault or unconformity. Lower Jurassic strata exposed within the Bangong suture between the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes contain populations of detrital zircons with ages between 200 and 500 Ma and 1700 and 2000 Ma. These populations differ from the detrital zircon ages of samples collected in the Lhasa terrane and suggest a unique source area. The Upper Cretaceous Takena Formation contains zircon populations with ages between 100 and 160 Ma, 500 and 600 Ma and 1000 and 1400 Ma. Detrital zircon ages from these strata suggest that several distinct fluvial systems occupied the southern portion of the Lhasa terrane during the Late Cretaceous and that deposition in the basin ceased before 70 Ma. Carboniferous strata exposed within the Lhasa terrane likely served as source rocks for sediments deposited during Cretaceous time. Similarities between the lithologies and detrital zircon age‐probability plots of Carboniferous rocks in the Lhasa and Qiangtang terranes and Tethyan strata in the Himalaya suggest that these areas were located proximal to one another within Gondwanaland. U–Pb ages of detrital zircons from our samples and differences between the geographic distribution of igneous rocks within the Tibetan plateau suggest that it is possible to discriminate a southern vs. northern provenance signature using detrital zircon age populations.     

A multivariate statistical and geostatistical study on the geochemistry of allochtonous karst bauxite deposits in Hungary

A geochemical evaluation of the Szc-Halimba-Kisld area, Hungary, covering an area of more than 200 km² is presented using different statistical and geostatistical methods. The study area is a representative example of allochtonous karst bauxite accumulation. The three groups of deposits studied here have been explored and mined since 1950. Several thousand boreholes have been drilled, and bauxite cores were analyzed for the five main chemical components. A total of 80,000 pleces of analytical data were processed, followed by a geological examination of borehole logs and of mining excavations.The quantitative geochemical evaluation of the data set led to both geochemical and practical results: The geochemical behavior of the allochtonous, clastic karst bauxite deposits differs essentially from that of the autochtonous and parautochtonous ones, as well as that of the lateritic bauxite deposits. The deposits of the study area can be split into several subsequent geochemical-sedimentological units, each representing an event of bauxite transport and accumulation. Clear regional patterns can be revealed in the composition of these units. The geostatistically measured chemical variability of the geochemical units is rather different, the lowest units showing the smallest variability. The interrelations of the main chemical components are weaker and more irregular in the studied deposits than in the autochtonous lateritic bauxite deposits. Additional local genetic features, such as transport routes, can be delineated by the methods applied. Within each deposit, local changes of chemical composition and of its variability can be determined more precisely. These results can be used in bauxite prospecting and exploration, because areas of high or low bauxite quality can be predicted.     

Channel constituents in beryl

The electronic absorption spectra of Fe²⁺ in non-chromium beryls are examined. Fe²⁺ in the Al-rich six-coordinate site produces absorption bands at about 820 nm and 970 nm polarizedE‖c. Fe²⁺ in the channel produces bands at 820 nm (⊥c) and 2100 nm (‖c). Some blue beryls which are more intensely colored than most aquamarines, have an absorption band at ～700 nm (‖c) which is suggested to arise from an Fe²⁺/Fe³⁺ intervalence interaction. Fe²⁺ in both the six-coordinate site and the channel is identified in the Mössbauer spectra. The Mössbauer spectra of deep blue beryls are unusual and have not been satisfactorily explained. Color changes which accompany heating and irradiation are strongly influenced by the channel iron.     

Radiative transfer in spherical shell atmospheres: I. Rayleigh scattering

A comparison is made between the plane-parallel approximation and the more realistic spherical shell approximation for the radiance reflected from a planetary atmosphere. In this paper we have considered a planet of radius 6371 km (the Earth) with a homogeneous, conservative, Rayleigh scattering atmosphere extending to a height of 100 km. We have found significant departures from the plane-parallel approximation. Radiance versus height distributions for both single and multiple scattering are presented. Results are presented for the fractional radiance from altitudes in the atmosphere which contribute to the total unidirectional reflected radiance at the top of the atmosphere. We have referred to this as the radiance versus height distribution in the sequel. These data will be very useful for both remote sensing applications and planetary spectroscopy. We have also found that gross violations of the principle of reciprocity do occur in the spherical shell approximation.     

On the astrometric detection of neighboring planetary systems,II

Extensive testing suggests that astrometric techniques can be employed to detect and study virtually any planetary system that may exist within 40 light years (12.5 parsec) of the Sun. Following the conclusion of Paper I [G. Gatewood, Icarus27 (1976), 1–12], the astrometric group at the Allegheny Observatory began an intensive survey of 20 nearby stars to detect the nonlinear variations in their motion that planetary systems would induce. Several tests conducted to further our understanding of the limitations of this survey indicated that the photographic detector itself is responsible for the majority of the random error. A new photoelectric detector has been designed and a simplified prototype of it successfully tested. The new detector is expected to be able to utilize virtually all of the astrometric information transmitted through the Earth's atmosphere. This is sufficient to determine relative positions to within an accuracy of approximately 1 milliarcsec/hr. Such precisions exceed the design capabilities of the best existing astrometric telescopes, thus a feasibility study has been conducted for the design of an improved instrument. The study concludes that a new ground-based telescope and the new detector combined should be able to study stars as faint as the 17th magnitude with an annual accuracy of a few tenths of a milliarcsecond. However, to obtain the ultimate accuracy possible from current technology, we must place an astrometric system above the Earth's atmosphere. A space-borne instrument utilizing the new detector would in theory have sufficient accuracy to detect any Earth-like planet orbiting any of the several hundred stars nearest the Sun.