Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory for modelling community resilience to natural disasters

This paper advocates the use of Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory as a framework to analyse resilience at diverse scales. Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory can be employed to (a) benchmark social resilience, (b) target the priority interventions required and (c) measure progress arising from these interventions to enhance resilience to natural disasters. First, the paper explores resilience to natural disasters in the context of climatic change as building resilience is seen as a way to mitigate impacts of natural disasters. Second, concepts of resilience are systematically examined and documented, outlining resilience as a trait and resilience as a process. Third, issues arising in relation to the measurement of resilience are discussed. Fourth, Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological systems theory is described and proffered to model and assess resilience at different scales. Fifth, studies are described which have supported the use of the bioecological systems theory for the study of resilience. Sixth, an example of the use of Bronfenbrenner’s theory is offered and the paper concludes with suggestions for future research using Bronfenbrenner’s theory.     

Deepwater fold and thrust belt classification,tectonics, structure and hydrocarbon prospectivity: A review

Deepwater fold and thrust belts (DWFTBs) are classified into near-field stress-driven Type 1 systems confined to the sedimentary section, and Type 2 systems deformed by either far-field stresses alone, or mixed near- and far-field stresses. DWFTBs can occur at all stages of the Wilson cycle up to early stage continent continent collision. Type 1 systems have either weak shale or salt detachments, they occur predominantly on passive margins but can also be found in convergent-related areas such as the Mediterranean and N. Borneo. Examples include the Niger and Nile deltas, the west coast of Africa, and the Gulf of Mexico. Type 2 systems are subdivided on a tectonic setting basis into continent convergence zones and active margin DWFTBs. Continent convergence zones cover DWFTBs developed during continent–arc or continent–continent collision, and those in a deepwater intracontinental setting (e.g. W. Sulawesi, Makassar Straits). Active margins include accretionary prisms and transform margins. The greatest variability in DWFTB structural style occurs between salt and shale detachments, and not between tectonic settings. Changes in fold amplitude and wavelength appear to be more related to thickness of the sedimentary section than to DWFTB type. In comparison with shale, salt detachment DWFTBS display a lower critical wedge taper, more detachment folds, long and episodic duration of deformation and more variation in vergence. Structures unique to salt include canopies and nappes. Accretionary prisms also standout from other DWFTBs due to their relatively long, continuous duration, rapid offshore propagation of the thrust front, and large amount of shortening. In terms of petroleum systems, many similar issues affect all DWFTBs, these include: the oceanward decrease in heat flow, offshore increase in age of mature source rock, and causes of trap failure (e.g. leaky oblique and frontal thrust faults, breach of top seal by fluid pipes). One major difference between Type 1 and Type 2 systems is reservoir rock. High quality, continent-derived, quartz-rich sandstones are generally prevalent in Type 1 systems. More diagenetically reactive minerals derived from igneous and ophiolitic sources are commonly present in Type 2 systems, or many are simply poor in well-developed turbidite sandstone units. However, some Type 2 systems, particularly those adjacent to active orogenic belts are partially sourced by high quality continent-derived sandstones (e.g. NW Borneo, S. Caspian Sea, Columbus Basin). In some cases very high rates of deposition in accretionary prisms adjacent to orogenic belts, coupled with uplift due to collision, results in accretionary prism related fold belts that pass laterally from sub-aerial to deepwater conditions (e.g. S. Caspian Sea, Indo-Burma Ranges). The six major hydrocarbon producing regions of DWFTBs worldwide (Gulf of Mexico, Niger Delta, NW Borneo, Brazil, West Africa, S. Caspian Sea) stand out as differing from most other DWFTBs in certain fundamental ways, particularly the very large volume of sediment deposited in the basins, and/or the great thickness and extent of salt or overpressured shale sdetachments.     

Comparison of ship's heading determined from an array of GPS antennas with heading from conventional gyrocompass measurements

An Ashtech GPS 3DF, a commercially available system for measuring ship's heading from an array of GPS antennas, was installed on RRS Discovery in August 1992. Data were collected during 8 days of ship trials, including periods in port and while on station or steaming. Headings from the GPS system have been compared with headings from the ship's gyrocompass, and residuals calculated. While in port, residuals had a standard deviation of 0.066°, suggesting satisfactory performance by both instruments. While at sea, time-averaged residuals varied with a range of nearly 3°, most of which is attributed to systematic errors in the ship's gyro. After correcting the gyro using 10-min averages of the GPS minus gyro headings, the residual GPS minus gyro differences had a standard deviation of 0.17°. This represents a likely limit on the use of GPS heading data to improve conventional gyro measurements.     

Incorporating the dynamics of marine systems into the stock assessment and management of sablefish

Progress in ecosystem management requires the characterisation of the dynamics of a species's ecosystem and the influences of climatic oscillations on those dynamics. Within the North Pacific, ecosystem dynamics have been described on decadal-scales (regimes) and have been shown to shift abruptly (regime shifts). The year class success of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) exhibit decadal-scale patterns that relate to decadal-scale patterns in North Pacific climate–ocean conditions. As an example, and a step towards, incorporating the dynamics of marine systems into the stock assessment and management of sablefish, we produce a ‘report card’ that characterises the species's ecosystem on decadal-scales. This report card consists of a matrix of climatological and oceanographic indices for the North Pacific, and regional environmental and biological indices. It indicates that both Pacific-wide and regionally, conditions were generally good for sablefish year class strength during the 1977–1988 regime, but these favourable conditions did not persist into the 1990s. Exploitation scenarios can be developed around the decadal-scale dynamics in sablefish year class success and their life history, in particular longevity. Fisheries managers can begin to develop exploitation strategies that acknowledge these changes in the sablefish ecosystem. The report card presents an aggregation of parameters that, on average, gives an impression of productivity during a specific regime and can be used to augment present stock assessment and management efforts.     

Effects of dechlorinated seawater on fish behavior

Behavioral responses to chemically dechlorinated seawater were studied using two species of marine fish associated with power plant discharge areas off Southern California. Opaleye (Girella nigricans) neither avoided nor were attracted to chlorinated seawater containing 0·1 mg/liter total residual oxidants (TRO) which had been dechlorinated using equimolar or excess sodium thiosulfate. Blue-banded goby (Lythrypnus dalli) did not avoid dechlorinated seawater initially containing 0·1 or 0·9–1·0 mg/liter TRO. Previously it has been shown that opaleye avoided chlorinated seawater with oxidant concentrations of 0·1 mg/liter and blue-banded gobies avoided 0·9–1·0 mg/liter TRO. Elimination of chlorine-produced oxidants by thiosulphate dechlorination resulted in 100% survival in both species. The toxicological implications of exposure to dechlorinated seawater are discussed.     

Abiogenic Origin of Hydrocarbons: An Historical Overview

Abstract. The two theories of abiogenic formation of hydrocarbons, the Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins and Thomas Gold's deep gas theory, have been considered in some detail. Whilst the Russian-Ukrainian theory was portrayed as being scientifically rigorous in contrast to the biogenic theory which was thought to be littered with invalid assumptions, this applies only to the formation of the higher hydrocarbons from methane in the upper mantle. In most other aspects, in particular the influence of the oxidation state of the mantle on the abundance of methane, this rigour is lacking especially when judged against modern criteria as opposed to the level of understanding in the 1950s to 1980s when this theory was at its peak. Thomas Gold's theory involves degassing of methane from the mantle and the formation of higher hydrocarbons from methane in the upper layers of the Earth's crust. However, formation of higher hydrocarbons in the upper layers of the Earth's crust occurs only as a result of Fischer-Tropsch-type reactions in the presence of hydrogen gas but is otherwise not possible on thermodynamic grounds. This theory is therefore invalid. Both theories have been overtaken by the increasingly sophisticated understanding of the modes of formation of hydrocarbon deposits in nature.     

Robust optimisation of CO2 sequestration strategies under geological uncertainty using adaptive sparse grid surrogates

Geologic CO₂ sequestration in deep saline aquifers is a promising technique to mitigate the effect of greenhouse gas emissions. Designing optimal CO₂ injection strategy becomes a challenging problem in the presence of geological uncertainty. We propose a surrogate assisted optimisation technique for robust optimisation of CO₂ injection strategies. The surrogate is built using Adaptive Sparse Grid Interpolation (ASGI) to accelerate the optimisation of CO₂ injection rates. The surrogate model is adaptively built with different numbers of evaluation points (simulation runs) in different dimensions to allow automatic refinement in the dimension where added resolution is needed. This technique is referred to as dimensional adaptivity and provides a good balance between the accuracy of the surrogate model and the number of simulation runs to save computational costs. For a robust design, we propose a utility function which comprises the statistical moment of the objective function. Numerical testing of the proposed approach applied to benchmark functions and reservoir models shows the efficiency of the method for the robust optimisation of CO₂ injection strategies under geological uncertainty.     

Improving exposure assessment in environmental epidemiology: Application of spatio-temporal visualization tools

A thorough assessment of human exposure to environmental agents should incorporate mobility patterns and temporal changes in human behaviors and concentrations of contaminants; yet the temporal dimension is often under-emphasized in exposure assessment endeavors, due in part to insufficient tools for visualizing and examining temporal datasets. Spatio-temporal visualization tools are valuable for integrating a temporal component, thus allowing for examination of continuous exposure histories in environmental epidemiologic investigations. An application of these tools to a bladder cancer case-control study in Michigan illustrates continuous exposure life-lines and maps that display smooth, continuous changes over time. Preliminary results suggest increased risk of bladder cancer from combined exposure to arsenic in drinking water (>25 g/day) and heavy smoking (>30 cigarettes/day) in the 1970s and 1980s, and a possible cancer cluster around automotive, paint, and organic chemical industries in the early 1970s. These tools have broad application for examining spatially- and temporally-specific relationships between exposures to environmental risk factors and disease.This study was supported by grant R01 CA96002-10, Geographic-Based Research in Cancer Control and Epidemiology, from the National Cancer Institute. Development of the STIS^TM software was funded by grants R43 ES10220 from the National Institutes of Environmental Health Sciences and R01 CA92669 from the National Cancer Institute. Access to cancer case records was provided by Michigan Cancer Surveillance Program within the Division for Vital Records and Health Statistics, Michigan Department of Community Health. The authors thank Michigan Public Health Institute for conducting the telephone interview and Stacey Fedewa and Lisa Bailey for entering written surveys into a database. The authors thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.     

Winchcombe: An example of rapid terrestrial alteration of a CM chondrite

Winchcombe is a CM chondrite that fell in England on February 28, 2021. Its rapid retrieval was well characterized. Within two polished sections of Winchcombe, terrestrial phases were observed. Calcite and calcium sulfates were found in a sample recovered from a field on March 6, 2021, and halite was observed on a sample months after its recovery from a driveway on March 2, 2021. These terrestrial phases were characterized by scanning electron microscopy, Raman spectroscopy, and transmission electron microscopy. Calcite veins crosscut the fusion crust and therefore postdate it. The calcite likely precipitated in the damp environment (sheep field) where the meteorite lay for six days prior to its retrieval. The sulfates occur on the edges of the sample and were identified as three minerals: gypsum, bassanite, and anhydrite. Given that the sulfates occur only on the sample's edges, including on top of the fusion crust, they formed after Winchcombe fell. Sulfate precipitation is attributed to the damp fall environment, likely resulted from sulfide-derived H₂S reacting with calcite within the meteorite. Halite occurs as euhedral crystals only on the surface of a polished section and exclusively in areas relatively enriched in sodium. It was likely produced by the interaction of the polished rock slice with the humid laboratory air over a period of months. The sulfates, fusion crust calcite, and halite all post-date Winchcombe's entry into the Earth's atmosphere and showcase how rapidly meteorite falls can be terrestrially altered.