On low-frequency errors of uniformly modulated filtered white-noise models for ground motions

Low-frequency errors of a commonly used non-stationary stochastic model (uniformly modulated filtered white-noise model) for earthquake ground motions are investigated. It is shown both analytically and by numerical simulation that uniformly modulated filter white-noise-type models systematically overestimate the spectral response for periods longer than the effective duration of the earthquake, because of the built-in low-frequency errors in the model. The errors, which are significant for low-magnitude short-duration earthquakes, can be eliminated by using the filtered shot-noise-type models (i.e. white noise, modulated by the envelope first, and then filtered).     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.     

The IPCC on a heterogeneous Medieval Warm Period

In their 2007 report, IPCC working group 1 refers to an increased heterogeneity of climate during medieval times about 1000 years ago. This conclusion would be of relevance, as it implies a contrast in the spatial signature and forcing of current warmth to that during the Medieval Warm Period. Our analysis of the data displayed in the IPCC report, however, shows no indication of an increased spread between long-term proxy records. We emphasize the relevance of sample replication issues, and argue that an estimation of long-term spatial homogeneity changes is premature based on the smattering of data currently available.     

Recent advances in offshore geotechnics for deep water oil and gas developments

The paper presents an overview of recent developments in geotechnical analysis and design associated with oil and gas developments in deep water. Typically the seabed in deep water comprises soft, lightly overconsolidated, fine grained sediments, which must support a variety of infrastructure placed on the seabed or anchored to it. A particular challenge is often the mobility of the infrastructure either during installation or during operation, and the consequent disturbance and healing of the seabed soil, leading to changes in seabed topography and strength. Novel aspects of geotechnical engineering for offshore facilities in these conditions are reviewed, including: new equipment and techniques to characterise the seabed; yield function approaches to evaluate the capacity of shallow skirted foundations; novel anchoring systems for moored floating facilities; pipeline and steel catenary riser interaction with the seabed; and submarine slides and their impact on infrastructure. Example results from sophisticated physical and numerical modelling are presented.     

The Contribution of Secondary Space to Benthic Taxon Richness of a Coral Reef: Colonisation of Dendrostrea frons (Mollusca)

Abstract. The reef‐dwelling oyster Dendrostrea frons occupied only a small proportion of space in coral reefs of the Quirimba Archipelago, Mozambique, but supported a disproportionately high variety of taxa. Assemblages on primary (substratum), secondary (dead coral heads) and ephemeral secondary space (D. frons shells) of similar area were compared across 5 depths (5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 m) and at four taxonomic levels (species, genus, class and phylum). Differences between the taxonomic richness of each type of space differed with both taxonomic level considered and depth. Of the three categories of space considered, ephemeral secondary space had the most taxa at all levels with the maximum at 10 – 15 m. Despite being small in space and time, animal externa, such as shells of D. frons, may provide important niches for particular organisms at many taxonomic levels.     

The labour-market impact of migration to rural areas

An economic audit of the labour-market impact of in-migration to rural Scotland provides evidence that migrants make rather than take jobs. A survey of 689 households in six study areas selected from across rural Scotland provides the basis for examining the scale and nature of job growth associated with in-migration. Job multipliers are calculated by migrant type and by economic sector.     

Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico

An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.     

Extraction procedure testing of solid wastes generated at selected metal ore mines and mills

Solid waste samples from a reconnaissance study conducted at ore mining and milling sites were subjected to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency extraction procedure (EP) leaching test Sites visited included mines and mills extracting ores of antimony (Sb), mercury (Hg), vanadium (V), tungsten (W), and nickel (Ni). Samples analyzed included mine wastes, treatment pond solids, tailings, low grade ore, and other solid wastes generated at these facilities Analysis of the leachate from these tests indicates that none of the samples generated leachate in which the concentration of any toxic metal parameter exceeded EPA criteria levels for those metals. By volume, tailings generally constitute the largest amount of solid wastes generated, but these data indicate that with proper management and monitoring, current EPA criteria can be met for tailings and for most solid wastes associated with mining and milling of these metal ores. Long-term studies are needed to determine if leachate characteristics change with time and to assist in development of closure plans and post closure monitoring programs.