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A series of calculated thermal histories of Mars is presented, and their possible relation to surface tectonic history is discussed. The models include convective heat transport through an empirical approximation, and heating by radioactivity and core segregation. Initial temperature, Ti, and the timing and duration of core segregation are treated as free parameters. Ti is the main determinant of Martian thermal evolution: as it is varied from 20 to 100% of the present mean temperature, the maximum in surface heat flux moves from very recent to very early in Martian history. For the latter cases, the details of core segregation control the detailed timing of a peak in the thermal flux that exceeded 100 mW/m2. It is suggested that the early disruption of cratered terrain crust in the northern hemisphere and subsequent volcanic resurfacing may have been related to core segregation. This would be consistent with a scenario in which an early period of core segregation generated a marked peak in the thermal flux that may have lead to extensivev partial melting and volcanism. This scenario would require Mars to have had an initial mean temperature comparable to the present value. 相似文献
95.
Ian Geoffrey Watterson 《Climatic change》2012,111(3-4):903-922
The patterns of large-scale climate change over the 21st century simulated by 23 CMIP3 global climate models are analyzed to provide understanding of the range of projected temperature T and precipitation P changes for Australia published in 2007. Means of change, standardized by the global warming, within each of 11 regions are calculated for each model. Correlations between regions across the 23 models indicate that the changes are rather coherent across much of the mainland. The all-Australian average changes are also well correlated with a pattern of tropical sea surface temperatures. A Pacific-Indian Dipole index, representing this pattern, correlates strongly with Australian P. It also correlates well with variables in Southeast Asia. The global warming itself correlates well with Australian warming. These two indices of large-scale ocean warming are used to partition the 23 models into four representative future climates. For Australia overall, these can be described as much warmer and drier, much warmer, warmer and drier, and warmer. The four climates span much of the range of the earlier Australian projections over most of the continent. Further, they may be reproduced by a downscaling model forced with the SST anomalies. An assessment of the realism of the ocean pattern changes has the potential to reduce the uncertainty of projections, both for Australia and beyond. 相似文献
96.
Incorporating a semi-stochastic model of ocean-modulated westerly wind bursts into an ENSO prediction model 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Prediction models of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon often represent westerly wind bursts (WWBs), a significant player in ENSO dynamics, as stochastic forcing. A recent paper developed an observationally motivated semi-stochastic statistical model that quantifies the dependence of WWBs on large-scale sea-surface temperature. This WWB model is added here to a hybrid coupled model, thus activating a two-way SST-WWB feedback. The WWB model represents both the deterministic and stochastic elements of WWBs and thus is especially appropriate for ensemble ENSO prediction experiments. An ensemble of retrospective forecasts is performed for the years 1979–2002. Overall statistical measures of predictability are neither degraded nor improved relative to the hybrid, coupled general circulation model, perhaps because of the limitations of the hybrid coupled model and the initialization procedure used. While the present work is meant as a proof-of-concept, it is found that the addition of the WWB model does improve the prediction of the onset and the development of the large 1997 warm event, pointing to the potential for ENSO prediction skill improvement using this approach. 相似文献
97.
Daniel D. Riemer Eric C. Apel John J. Orlando Geoffrey S. Tyndall William H. Brune Eric J. Williams William A. Lonneman James D. Neece 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2008,61(3):227-242
As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to
discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO)
and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day
experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~102 atoms cm−3 and 50 - 30 + 70 ×104 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm−3. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 - 2.0 + 4.7 ×104 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm−3 and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation
chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in
the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the
Houston, Texas urban area. 相似文献
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Maarten Wynants Aloyce Patrick Linus Munishi Kelvin Mtei Samuel Bodé Alex Taylor Geoffrey Millward Neil Roberts David Gilvear Patrick Ndakidemi Pascal Boeckx William H. Blake 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(15):3112-3126
Soil resources in parts of Tanzania are rapidly being depleted by increased rates of soil erosion and downstream sediment transport, threatening ecosystem health, water and livelihood security in the region. However, incomplete understanding to what effect the dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport are responding to land-use changes and climatic variability are hindering the actions needed to future-proof Tanzanian land-use practices. Complementary environmental diagnostic tools were applied to reconstruct the rates and sources of sedimentation over time in three Tanzanian river systems that have experienced changing land use and climatic conditions. Detailed historical analysis of sediment deposits revealed drastic changes in sediment yield and source contributions. Quantitative sedimentation reconstruction using radionuclide dating showed a 20-fold increase in sediment yield over the past 120 years. The observed dramatic increase in sediment yield is most likely driven by increasing land-use pressures. Deforestation, cropland expansion and increasing grazing pressures resulted into accelerating rates of sheet erosion. A regime shift after years of progressive soil degradation and convergence of surface flows resulted into a highly incised landscape, where high amounts of eroded soil from throughout the catchment are rapidly transported downstream by strongly connected ephemeral drainage networks. By integrating complementary spatial and temporal evidence bases, this study demonstrated links between land-use change, increased soil erosion and downstream sedimentation. Such evidence can guide stakeholders and policy makers in the design of targeted management interventions to safeguard future soil health and water quality. 相似文献
100.
Kenneth D. Adams Ted Goebel Kelly Graf Geoffrey M. Smith Anna J. Camp Richard W. Briggs David Rhode 《Geoarchaeology》2008,23(5):608-643
The Great Basin of the western U.S. contains a rich record of Late Pleistocene and Holocene lake‐level fluctuations as well as an extensive record of human occupation during the same time frame. We compare spatial‐temporal relationships between these records in the Lahontan basin to consider whether lake‐level fluctuations across the Pleistocene‐Holocene transition controlled distribution of archaeological sites. We use the reasonably well‐dated archaeological record from caves and rockshelters as well as results from new pedestrian surveys to investigate this problem. Although lake levels probably reached maximum elevations of about 1230–1235 m in the different subbasins of Lahontan during the Younger Dryas (YD) period, the duration that the lakes occupied the highest levels was brief. Paleoindian and Early Archaic archaeological sites are concentrated on somewhat lower and slightly younger shorelines (_1220–1225 m) that also date from the Younger Dryas period. This study suggests that Paleoindians often concentrated their activities adjacent to large lakes and wetland resources soon after they first entered the Great Basin. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 相似文献