Individual Variations of Winter Surface Air Temperature over Northwest and Northeast China and Their Respective Preceding Factors

Based on monthly mean surface air temperature （SAT） from 71 stations in northern China and NCEP/ NCAR and NOAA-CIRES （Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences） twentieth century reanalysis data, the dominant modes of winter SAT over northem China were explored. The results showed that there are two modes that account for a majority of the total variance over northern China. The first mode is unanimously colder （warmer） over the whole of northern China. The second mode is characterized by a dipole structure that is colder （warmer） over Northwest China （NWC） and warmer （colder） over Northeast China （NEC）, accounting for a fairly large proportion of the total variance. The two components constituting the second mode, the individual variations of winter SAT over NWC and NEC and their respective preceding factors, were further investigated. It was found that the autumn SAT anomalies are closely linked to persistent snow cover anomalies over Eurasia, showing the delayed effects on winter climate over northern China. Specifically, the previous autumn SAT anomalies over the Lake Baikal （LB; 50-60°N, 85-120°E） and Mongolian Plateau （MP; 42-52°N, 80-120°E） regions play an important role in adjusting the variations of winter SAT over NWC and NEC, respectively. The previous autumn SAT anomaly over the MP region may exert an influence on the winter SAT over NEC through modulating the strength and location of the East Asian major trough. The previous autumn SAT over the LB region may modulate winter westerlies at the middle and high latitudes of Asia and accordingly affects the invasion of cold air and associated winter SAT over NWC.     

Regional reference network augmented precise point positioning for instantaneous ambiguity resolution

Integer ambiguity fixing can significantly shorten the initialization time and improve the accuracy of precise point positioning (PPP), but it still takes approximate 15 min of time to achieve reliable integer ambiguity solutions. In this contribution, we present a new strategy to augment PPP estimation with a regional reference network, so that instantaneous ambiguity fixing is achievable for users within the network coverage. In the proposed method, precise zero-differenced atmospheric delays are derived from the PPP fixed solution of the reference stations, which are disseminated to, and interpolated at user stations to correct for L1, L2 phase observations or their combinations. With the corrected observations, instantaneous ambiguity resolution can be carried out within the user PPP software, thus achieving the position solutions equivalent to the network real-time kinematic positioning (NRTK). The strategy is validated experimentally. The derived atmospheric delays and the interpolated corrections are investigated. The ambiguity fixing performance and the resulted position accuracy are assessed. The validation confirms that the new strategy can provide comparable service with NRTK. Therefore, with this new processing strategy, it is possible to integrate PPP and NRTK into a seamless positioning service, which can provide an accuracy of about 10 cm anywhere, and upgrade to a few centimeters within a regional network.     

The Response of First Flowering Dates to Abrupt Climate Change in Beijing

Phenological data on the First Flowering Date(FFD) of woody plants in Beijing from 1963-2007 are analyzed.The correlation between each species’ yearly FFD and the mean monthly temperatures for every year over a 45-year period is used to identify the month in which temperature has the most effect on FFD. Through further analysis,the FFDs of 48 woody plant species are shown to have advanced an average of 5.4 days from 1990-2007 compared to 1963-1989.The results indicate that 70.8%of species flowered significantly earlier(7 days on average) during the period 1990-2007,while only one species(2.1%) flowered significantly later.Moreover,the responses of FFD to climate change are shown to be different in two climatic stages, defined by an abrupt climate change point.Thirty-three species which first flower in March and April are sensitive to temperature are examined.The correlation coefficients between FFD and temperature for 20 species during the latter period(1990-2007) are shown to be larger than during the former period(1963- 1989),with a difference of around -0.87 days per 1℃on average.The paper concludes that with the warming of climate,the linear trend of FFD variation,as well as its responsiveness to temperature,became more prominent during 1990-2007 than 1963-1989.The data analyzed in this study present a strong biological indicator of climate change in Beijing,and provide further confirmation of previous results from regional and local studies across the Northern Hemisphere.Phenophase variations indicate that the climate is changing rapidly.     

一次中纬度飑线的阵风锋发展特征分析

2009年8月发生在辽宁省中部的一次飑线前部出现了两次特征不同的阵风锋发展过程,并伴随有灾害性大风和冰雹等强对流天气。应用多普勒雷达数据、常规探空、地面加密观测及飞机观测（AMDAR）数据对飑线系统进行了综合分析。结果显示环境场中强的风垂直切变促进飑线上对流单体发展并使飑线倾斜。西路冷空气进入飑线使对流加强,形成第一次阵风锋。而北路冷空气与飑线的暖心间温度梯度增大,造成地面风速增大是第二次阵风锋发展的直接诱因。最终飑线系统母体中的线状辐合带转移到第二次阵风锋上,该阵风锋形成新的飑线。     

风力发电机地基的现场加速度测试和数值模拟

对某风电场风力发电机地基进行现场加速度测试,在土动力性能室内试验的基础上利用有限元对风机基础—地基系统进行数值模拟。在地基加速度的峰值、衰减规律和频率上,现场测试与计算结果吻合较好,验证了动力数值分析模型及相关参数取值的合理性,为建立风机振动对周围环境影响的数值模型提供了依据。     

单轴加载条件下瑞利波偏振和不同震相波速对应力敏感性的实验研究

岩石应力状态的改变会使接收到的波形发生变化,这是利用弹性波检测介质性质和应力变化的基础.研究对应力敏感的弹性波参数及其分析方法对于发展介质应力监测技术具有重要意义.本文在实验室内以长方体花岗岩为样本,在不同的单轴压力下重复激发超声波且用三分量的传感器接收,利用记录的全波形信息研究了不同震相的到时、Rayleigh波偏振与岩石应力状态变化的关系.结果表明:①不同震相的波速对应力变化的敏感性为10-8/Pa数量级,且敏感程度从大到小依次为:Rayleigh波＞S波＞P波.②随着应力的增大,Rayleigh波偏振变强,但其敏感性随应力增大而变小,这反映出了介质性质的非线性变化特性.③应力较小时,Rayleigh波偏振对应力的敏感性比波速大数倍.     

利用高采样率数采实现地震波速变化高精度测量

介质物理性质与应力状态的改变是导致地震波速变化的主要因素,通过高精度波速变化测量可推测地下介质发生的变化.然而,高精度波速变化测量对测量仪器提出了较高要求,波速变化的测量精度常常受到仪器的采样率、信噪比以及时间触发精度的影响.为实现高精度测量,设计一套由大功率稀土超磁致可重复震源和高采样率通用数采组成的观测系统,通过叠...     

淄博市及其邻近地区活断层地震危险性评价

本文是山东省防震减灾“十五”重点项目(SD10503)—淄博市活断层探测与地震危险性评价项目的一个子课题和山东省自然科学基金青年基金(Q97E1142)——郯庐断裂带强震孕育动力学模型及其数值模拟研究部分研究成果的总结.在分析研究地震地质、地球物理、断层综合地球物理探测、探槽开挖、断层活动性鉴定等技术手段获得的反映区域地震构造环境、深部构造背景、活动断裂长期滑动习性的定性和定量资料、历史与现代地震活动性和地球动力学资料的基础上,甄别出具有发生破坏性地震的活断层段.同时利用定性、定量和综合判定方法,评价了淄博市及其邻近地区主要断层的地震危险性.本项研究成果为淄博市城区地震小区划、震害预测和断层危害性评价提供了基础依据.     

Changes in hydrology and sediment delivery of the Mekong River in the last 50 years: connection to damming,monsoon, and ENSO

As the population and economy boom, more and more dams are being built in the Mekong River basin. Previous studies have revealed that Manwan Dam had little influence on the runoff–SSC (suspended sediment concentration) relationship, and the sediment load was relatively stable over the past 40 years. However, little is known at present on the relationship among monsoons, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), precipitation, runoff, and the impact of dams on the delta dynamics. A comprehensive hydropower GIS database covering the entire Mekong basin is presented in this study. Mann–Kendall trend analysis showed no significant change in precipitation and runoff over the past 50 years. Spectral analysis showed that the runoffs of the middle to lower reach of Mekong River are correlated with the Indian Monsoon, where as the East Asian Monsoon's influence is mainly on the lower reach. With another 200 new dams to be added to the basin in the next couple of decades, changes are expected in both hydrological regime and delta dynamics. On one hand, the runoff showed a closer connection with the regional precipitation and ENSO in the post‐dam period (1993–2005) than in the pre‐dam period (1950–1993). Such a relationship is expected to be even closer when more dams are completed. On the other hand, both daily maximum and minimum water levels on the delta plain have shown an abrupt drop since the end of 1994. This reduced water‐level gradient between the river and sea inevitably weakens the sediment discharge to the coast, which might intensify the ongoing coastal erosion on the eastern part of the delta plain. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk perception and hazard mitigation in the Yangtze River Delta region,China

The Yangtze River Delta region is an area highly vulnerable to flooding. As the population density is rising concomitantly with high economic growth, this region is becoming more vulnerable to natural hazards. We conducted a survey to investigate the individual risk perception of both the local authorities and the general community, analyze the current situation regarding risk management and identify problems in the current risk management scheme. Data were collected through questionnaires distributed to some members of the community and interviews with representatives of the local authorities. The primary findings are as follows: (1) risk and disaster multipliers perceived by lay people show the stigma effect of the Wenchuan earthquake; (2) the responses of college students illustrate that the stigma effect has less influence on people who have more knowledge about hazards; (3) differences exist in comparative groups (China and USA), which shows that the society and culture influence people’s perception of risk; and (4) economic activities have complicated flood risk management such as land shortage, ground subsidence and flood diversion. Accordingly, the following measures should be taken: (1) the government should improve the risk communication and education of lay people; (2) the government must also control unsuitable land use and balance economic development and risk management; (3) flood diversion areas should be compensated through special funds collected from other cities; and (4) local governments should provide more support for hazard mitigation.