联合机载PLMR微波辐射计和MODIS产品反演黑河中游张掖绿洲土壤水分研究

土壤水分是气候、水文学研究中的重要变量,微波遥感是获取区域地表土壤水分的重要手段,而L波段更是微波土壤水分反演的最优波段。依托HiWATER黑河中游绿洲试验区的地面观测及机载PLMR微波辐射计亮温数据,利用微波辐射传输模型L-MEB,并将MODIS地表温度产品(MOD11A1)和叶面积指数产品(MYD15A2)作为模型及反演中的先验辅助信息,借助LM优化算法,通过PLMR双极化多角度的亮温观测,针对土壤水分、植被含水量(VWC)和地表粗糙度这3个主要参数,分别进行土壤水分单参数反演、土壤水分与VWC或粗糙度的双参数反演以及这3个参数的同时反演。通过对不同反演方法的比较可以得出结论,多源辅助数据及PLMR双极化、多角度信息的应用可以显著降低反演的不确定性,提高土壤水分反演精度。证明在合理的模型参数和反演策略下,SMOS的L-MEB模型和产品算法可以达到0.04 cm3/cm3的反演精度,另外无线传感器网络可以在遥感产品真实性检验中起到重要作用。     

Aeolian sediment transport and deposition in a modern high‐latitude glacial marine environment

Aeolian sand and dust in polar regions are transported offshore over sea ice and released to the ocean during summer melt. This process has long been considered an important contributor to polar sea floor sedimentation and as a source of bioavailable iron that triggers vast phytoplankton blooms. Reported here are aeolian sediment dispersal patterns and accumulation rates varying between 0·2 g m^?2 yr^?1 and 55 g m^?2 yr^?1 over 3000 km² of sea ice in McMurdo Sound, south‐west Ross Sea, adjacent to the largest ice free area in Antarctica. Sediment distribution and the abundance of southern McMurdo Volcanic Group‐derived glass, show that most sediment originates from the McMurdo Ice Shelf and nearby coastal outcrops. Almost no sediment is derived from the extensive ice free areas of the McMurdo Dry Valleys due to winnowed surficial layers shielding sand‐sized and silt‐sized material from wind erosion and because of the imposing topographic barrier of the north‐south aligned piedmont glaciers. Southerly winds of intermediate strength (ca 20 m sec^?1) are primarily responsible for transporting sediment northwards and offshore. The results presented here indicate that sand‐sized sediment does not travel more than ca 5 km offshore, but very‐fine sand and silt grains can travel >100 km from source. For sites >10 km from the coast, the mass accumulation rate is relatively uniform (1·14 ± 0·57 g m^?2 yr^?1), three orders of magnitude above estimated global atmospheric dust values for the region. This uniformity represents a sea floor sedimentation rate of only 0·2 cm kyr^?1, well below the rates of >9 cm kyr^?1 reported for biogenic‐dominated sedimentation measured over much of the Ross Sea. These results show that, even for this region of high‐windblown sediment flux, aeolian processes are only a minor contributor to sea floor sedimentation, excepting areas proximal to coastal sources.     

A framework to assess the vulnerability of California commercial sea urchin fishermen to the impact of MPAs under climate change

This paper describes the development of a Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) that estimates the relative ability of California commercial sea urchin fishermen to cope with the change associated with proposed marine protected areas. A key goal in establishing marine protected areas is to maximize conservation benefits while minimizing the potential negative impacts to local fishing communities. However, current impact analyses largely assume a linear relationship between percent of fishing area or revenue lost with the magnitude of impact to fishermen. The LVI described in this paper aims to provide an additional dimension to impact analyses in which the adaptive capacity of individual fishermen is examined to estimate the differential abilities of fishermen to cope with the loss of fishing areas or revenue. This paper advances vulnerability assessments as it develops a novel framework for identifying and measuring drivers of vulnerability for understudied fishing populations whose livelihoods depend upon marine resources. This vulnerability assessment is intended to inform the design of marine protected areas by enabling researchers to incorporate the adaptive capacity of fishermen into socioeconomic impact analyses. The LVI was developed for the California commercial sea urchin fishery in the context of proposed marine protected area networks develop through the California Marine Life Protected Act planning process. As climate change advances there is an increasing need to identify vulnerable and resilient populations and ways to bolster adaptive capacity given the environmental and economic changes ahead.     

Socio-cultural dimensions of climate change: charting the terrain

We have reached a crucial turning point in debates around climate change. A well established scientific consensus regarding the physical causes, dynamics, and at least many likely implications of anthropogenic climate change has thus far failed to result in any substantial movement towards mitigation. For many, then, the most urgent questions regarding climate change are now socio-cultural ones, such as: how do people come to hold and act on certain beliefs regarding environmental conditions and processes; how do institutional forms and histories shape and constrain the views and options of various sorts of actors; and what are relationships among fossil fuels, climate change, and the historical geographies and future trajectories of capitalism? Far from being simpler than physical and life science questions, these social science questions introduce entirely new sorts of actors, dynamics, and methodological challenges into this already complex and dynamic domain. This special issue takes up these topics. In this essay, we chart some of the major contours of contemporary social science thinking regarding climate change and introduce the articles in the special issue. We begin by examining work, from political science and scholarship on the commons, that foregrounds questions of sovereignty, territoriality, and cooperation with respect to environmental governance. Then we examine work from neoclassical economics and radical political economy, which frame climate change in terms of externalities, or contradiction and crisis, respectively. Finally, we examine the rapidly proliferating work exploring how individuals think and feel about these issues, emphasizing concepts of risk, communication, and governmentality.     

Near-infrared spectroscopy of primitive asteroid families

We compare 13 near-infrared (0.8-2.4 μm) spectra of two low albedo C complex outer-belt asteroid families: Themis and Veritas. The disruption ages of these two families lie at opposite extremes: 2.5 ± 1.0 Gyr and 8.7 ± 1.7 Myr, respectively. We found striking differences between the two families, which show a range of spectral shapes and slopes. The seven Themis family members (older surfaces) have “red” (positive) slopes in the 1.6-2.4 μm region; in contrast, the six Veritas members (younger surfaces) have significantly “flatter” slopes at these same wavelengths. Moreover, the two families are characterized by different concavity at shorter (1.0-1.5 μm) wavelengths with the Themis group being consistently flat or concave up (smile) and the Veritas group being consistently concave down (frown). Each family contains a broad range of diameters, suggesting our results are not due to comparisons of asteroids of different sizes. The statistically significant clustering of the two spectral groups could be explained by one of the following three possibilities or a combination of them: (1) space weathering effects, (2) differences in original composition, or (3) differences in thermal history perhaps as a result of the difference in parent body sizes. As a result of our analyses, we propose a new method to quantify broad and shallow structures in the spectra of primitive asteroids. We found reasonable matches between the observed asteroids and individual carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. Because these meteoritic fits represent fresh surfaces, space weathering is neither necessary nor ruled out as an explanation of spectral differences between families. The six Veritas family near-infrared (NIR) spectra represent the first NIR analysis of this family, thus significantly increasing our understanding of this family over these wavelengths.     

Radioactivity backgrounds in ZEPLIN-III

We examine electron and nuclear recoil backgrounds from radioactivity in the ZEPLIN-III dark matter experiment at Boulby. The rate of low-energy electron recoils in the liquid xenon WIMP target is 0.75 ± 0.05 events/kg/day/keV, which represents a 20-fold improvement over the rate observed during the first science run. Energy and spatial distributions agree with those predicted by component-level Monte Carlo simulations propagating the effects of the radiological contamination measured for materials employed in the experiment. Neutron elastic scattering is predicted to yield 3.05 ± 0.5 nuclear recoils with energy 5-50 keV per year, which translates to an expectation of 0.4 events in a 1 yr dataset in anti-coincidence with the veto detector for realistic signal acceptance. Less obvious background sources are discussed, especially in the context of future experiments. These include contamination of scintillation pulses with Cherenkov light from Compton electrons and from β activity internal to photomultipliers, which can increase the size and lower the apparent time constant of the scintillation response. Another challenge is posed by multiple-scatter γ-rays with one or more vertices in regions that yield no ionisation. If the discrimination power achieved in the first run can be replicated, ZEPLIN-III should reach a sensitivity of ∼1 × 10⁻⁸pb · yr to the scalar WIMP-nucleon elastic cross-section, as originally conceived.     

An evaluation of numerical weather prediction based rainfall forecasts

ABSTRACT

Assessment of forecast precipitation is required before it can be used as input to hydrological models. Using radar observations in southeastern Australia, forecast rainfall from the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) was evaluated for 2010 and 2011. Radar rain intensities were first calibrated to gauge rainfall data from four research rainfall stations at hourly time steps. It is shown that the Australian ACCESS model (ACCESS-A) overestimated rainfall in low precipitation areas and underestimated elevated accumulations in high rainfall areas. The forecast errors were found to be dependent on the rainfall magnitude. Since the cumulative rainfall observations varied across the area and through the year, the relative error (RE) in the forecasts varied considerably with space and time, such that there was no consistent bias across the study area. Moreover, further analysis indicated that both location and magnitude errors were the main sources of forecast uncertainties on hourly accumulations, while magnitude was the dominant error on the daily time scale. Consequently, the precipitation output from ACCESS-A may not be useful for direct application in hydrological modelling, and pre-processing approaches such as bias correction or exceedance probability correction will likely be necessary for application of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) outputs.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione     

NOTICE: INTERNATIONAL GEOMORPHOLOGY

The focus of this research is the development of a model which explains channel pattern variability in streams. Since channel pattern is commonly regarded as a qualitative phenomenon, the research employs a logistic regression model, which is advocated as an alternative to traditional graphic/discriminant analysis, since the concepts of threshold and instability have very natural expressions in the logistic regression framework. The results demonstrate that channel gradient and mean discharge can effectively explain channel pattern (i.e., whether the channel is single or multithreaded) in an environment where there is a small range of bed material size. Sediment sorting is also shown to be related to channel pattern in the study environment. Models using valley gradient rather than channel gradient are shown to be distinctly inferior, and no advantage is found in using a stream power measure as opposed to separate gradient and discharge measures. [Key Words: fluvial geomorphology, stream channels, channel patterns, models.]     

‘Diatoms and pH reconstruction’ (1990) revisited

The 167 sample lake-water pH-diatom calibration data-set created as part of the Palaeolimnology Programme within the Surface Water Acidification Project (SWAP) is re-analysed numerically using nine different numerical methods, six based on simple two-way weighted-averaging (WA), and the other three involving Gaussian logit regression (GLR) and maximum-likelihood (ML) calibration, the modern analogue technique, or weighted-averaging partial least-squares regression and calibration. Root mean squared error of prediction and maximum bias were estimated for all nine methods based on 10,000 internal and 10,000 external cross-validations involving a training-set, an optimisation-set, and a test-set. The results show that WA with a monotonic deshrinking spline equals or slightly outperforms WA with linear inverse deshrinking, especially in external cross-validation. Methods that employ tolerance downweighting generally have an inferior performance except when combined with monotonic deshrinking. It appears that simple two-way WA extensively used in SWAP cannot be significantly bettered. Thanks to increased computing power, better software, and more rigorous cross-validations, GLR shows good performance, especially in external cross-validation.     

Comprehensive evaluation of heavy metal contamination in surface and core sediments of Taihu Lake, the third largest freshwater lake in China

The spatial and temporal variations of Fe, K, Co, V, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, and Pb were determined in the sediments of Taihu Lake, the third largest freshwater lake in China and categorized into natural origin (Fe, K, Co, and V) and human contamination (Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, and Pb) groups by principal component analysis. Most of the metals were positively correlated with the clay content (<4???m) and negatively correlated with the >16???m fraction, indicating the dominant role of grain size in regulating metals concentrations. Geochemical normalization and enrichment factors (EFs) were introduced to reduce the confounding of variable grain size and to quantify anthropogenic contributions. Higher EF values for Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn occurred in the north Zhushan, Meiliang, and Gonghu Bays, indicating a high level of human contamination from the northern cities, such as Wuxi and Changzhou. Higher EF values of Pb were also present in the southwest and east lake areas, denoting the existence of additional anthropogenic sources. Chrome, Cu, Ni, Zn, and Pb showed increasing EF values in the top layers of sediment cores, indicating enhancing contamination since 1970s with rapid economy development in the catchment. These results indicate that geochemical normalization is a necessary and effective method in quantifying heavy metals contamination, and that historic sediment should be used as background values in calculating EFs. Potential risks of the heavy metals were assessed linking the consensus-based sediment quality guidelines and human contamination. Concentrations of Ni and Cr are greater than the threshold effect concentration (TEC) values, even in the sediments before 1970s, due to higher background concentrations in terrestrial parent materials. Concentrations of Ni and Cr are generally lower than the probable effect concentration (PEC) values, and concentrations of Cu and Zn are below the TEC values in the open lake areas. Whereas, concentrations of Ni and Cr are surpassing the PEC values and Cu and Zn are surpassing the TEC values in the north bays due to the high level of human contamination, where they were with EFs over 1.2, denoting higher potential eco-risks.