Oil-spill fishery impact assessment model: Application to selected Georges Bank fish species

An oil-spill fishery impact assessment model composed of an oil-spill fates model, a shelf hydrodynamics model, an ichthyoplankton transport and fate model, and a fishery population model originally developed by Reed & Spaulding, has been improved and applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to assess the probable impact of oil spills on several key fisheries. The model addresses direct impacts of oil on the commercial fishery through hydrocarbon-induced egg and larval mortality. This early life stage hydrocarbon-induced mortality is estimated by assuming a toxicity threshold approach and by mapping the spatial/temporal interaction between the subsurface oil concentrations caused by the spill and the developing eggs and larvae. Model output is given in terms of differential catch, with a comparison made of hydrocarbon-impacted fisheries.Simulations of tanker and blowout spills at two separate locations for each season of the year in the Outer Continental Shelf lease areas have been completed for Atlantic herring, haddock, and Atlantic cod. Results to date suggest a complex interaction among spill location and timing, the spatial and temporal spawning distribution of the species, and the hydrodynamics of the area. The largest impacts occur for spring and winter spills.     

The dynamics of a rapidly escaping atmosphere: Applications to the evolution of Earth and Venus

A simple, idealized model for the rapid escape of a hydrogen thermosphere provides some quantitative estimates for the energy-limited flux of escaping particles. The model assumes that the atmosphere is “tightly bound” by the gravitational field at lower altitudes, that diffusion through the lower atmosphere does not limit the flux, and that the main source of heating is solar euv. Rather low thermospheric temperatures are typical of such escape and a characteristic minimum develops in the temperature profile as the escape flux approaches its maximum possible value. The flux is limited by the amount of euv energy absorbed, which is in turn controlled by the radial extent of the thermosphere. Regardless of the amount of hydrogen in the thermosphere, the low temperatures accompanying rapid escape limit its extent, and thus constrain the flux. Applied to the Earth and Venus, the results suggest that the escape of hydrogen from these planets would have been energy-limited if their primordial atmospheres contained total hydrogen mixing ratios exceeding a few percent. Hydrogen and deuterium may have been lost in bulk, but heavier elements would have remained in the atmosphere. These results place constraints on hypotheses for the origin of the planets and their subsequent evolution.     

Latent lifestyle preferences and household location decisions

Lifestyle, indicating preferences towards a particular way of living, is a key driver of the decision of where to live. We employ latent class choice models to represent this behavior, where the latent classes are the lifestyles and the choice model is the choice of residential location. Thus, we simultaneously estimate lifestyle groups and how lifestyle impacts location decisions. Empirical results indicate three latent lifestyle segments: suburban dwellers, urban dwellers, and transit-riders. The suggested lifestyle segments have intriguing policy implications. Lifecycle characteristics are used to predict lifestyle preferences, although there remain significant aspects that cannot be explained by observable variables.

Spatiotemporal analysis of tornado exposure in five US metropolitan areas

Weather-related disasters and affiliated losses in the USA have amplified over time. However, prior research using normalization schemes on damage tallies suggests that weather hazard losses are not necessarily rising when inflation, changes in wealth, and growth in population are accounted. This study evaluates the latter factor, assessing if population changes and a sprawling development mode have led to increasing potential for tornado disasters in the USA. Specifically, this research shows where and how quickly tornado exposure is growing by appraising spatiotemporal trends in gridded population and housing unit data for five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The macroscale risk to tornadoes is represented by tornado day climatology and is related to the exposure of the five MSAs, which include Atlanta, GA; Chicago, IL; Dallas/Fort Worth, TX; Oklahoma City, OK; and St. Louis, MO. Supplementing the macroscale investigation, an observationally derived, hypothetical violent tornado track is transposed on various development types in each MSA to determine the microscale changes in human and built-environment exposure. Results demonstrate increased exposure in all MSAs at both the macro- and microscale. Of the five MSAs studied, Dallas, TX, had the greatest potential for a tornado disaster due to the higher risk for tornado occurrence comingling with the amount of MSA exposure. These results reveal further that amplifying exposure is a major impetus behind intensifying severe weather impacts and losses.     

The evolution and variability of atmospheric ozone over geological time

The rise of atmospheric O₃ as a function of the evolution of O₂ has been investigated using a one-dimensional steady-state photochemical model based on the chemistry and photochemistry of O_x(O₃, O, O(¹D)), N₂O, NO_x(NO, NO₂, HNO₃), H₂O, and HO_x(H, OH, HO₂, H₂O₂) including the effect of vertical eddy transport on the species distribution. The total O₃ column density was found to maximize for an O₂ level of 10^?1 present atmospheric level (PAL) and exceeded the present total O₃ column by about 40%. For that level of O₂, surface and tropospheric O₃ densities exceeded those of the present atmosphere by about an order of magnitude. Surface and tropospheric OH densities of the paleoatmosphere exceeded those of the present atmosphere by orders of magnitude. We also found that in the O₂-deficient paleoatmosphere, N₂O (even at present atmospheric levels) produces much less NO_x than it does in the present atmosphere.     

A comparison of hillslope drainage area estimation methods using high-resolution DEMs with implications for topographic studies of gullies

Topographic models provide a useful tool for understanding gully occurrence in the landscape but require reliable estimates of gully head drainage areas. Modern high-resolution topography data (collected using structure from motion photogrammetry or light detection and ranging) is increasingly used for topographic studies of gullies, but little work has been done to assess the variability of gully head drainage area estimates using different methods. This study evaluated alternative approaches to using high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) so that gully topographic models can be more readily applied to any area with suitably high-resolution data. Specifically, we investigated the impact of single- or multiple-direction flow routing algorithms, DEM hydrologic-enforcement procedures and spatial resolution on gully head drainage area estimation. We tested these methods on a 40 km² site centred on Weany Creek, a low-relief semi-arid landscape draining towards the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Using a subroutine to separate gully heads into those with divergent or convergent flow patterns upslope, we found that divergent flow conditions occurred at half of 484 studied gullies. Drainage areas estimated by different flow routing algorithms were more variable in these divergent cases than for convergent cases. This variation caused a significant difference between topographic threshold parameters (slope b and intercept k) derived from single- or multiple-direction flow routing algorithms, respectively. Different methods of hydrologic enforcement (filling or breaching) also affected threshold analysis, resulting in estimates of the exponent b being ~188% higher if the DEM was filled than if breached. The testing of the methods to date indicates that a finer resolution (≤2 m) DEM and a multiple-direction flow routing algorithm achieve the most realistic drainage area estimates in low-relief landscapes. For Weany Creek we estimated threshold parameters k = 0.033 and b = 0.189, indicating that it is highly susceptible to gully erosion.     

Environmental recovery in Sydney Harbour,Nova Scotia: Evidence of natural and anthropogenic sediment capping

Contaminants were assessed in Sydney Harbour during baseline and three years of remediation of a former coking and steel facility. Concentrations of PAHs; PCBs; and lead measured in surface sediments indicate overall spatial distribution patterns of historical contaminants remains unchanged, although at much lower concentrations than previously reported due to natural sediment recovery. Recovery rates were in broad agreement with predicted concentrations; or in some cases lower, despite remediation at the Sydney Tar Ponds (STP) site. Contaminants showed little temporal variability, except for detection of significant increases in PAH concentrations during onset of remediation compared to baseline which represented a short term interruption in the overall long term natural recovery of sediments in Sydney Harbour. Recovery (via “capping”) was enhanced following recent harbour dredging activities where less contaminated outer harbour sediments were discharged into a confined disposal facility (CDF) required for a new container in the inner harbour.     

Monitoring considerations for a dynamic dune restoration project: Pacific Rim National Park Reserve,British Columbia,Canada.

Historically, management of coastal dune systems has often involved artificial stabilization of active sand surfaces in order for coastal areas to be more easily controlled and modified for human benefit. In North America, the introduction of invasive grasses, namely European and American beach (marram) grasses (Ammophila spp.) has been one of the most successful strategies used for stabilizing active coastal dune sands. Recent research has demonstrated, however, that stabilization of coastal dunes often leads to reduced landform complexity and resilience, as well as declines in species diversity. More ‘dynamic’ restoration efforts have emerged over the past 20 years that encourage dune mobility and aeolian activity in order to provide a more resilient biogeomorphic system. In North America, there is generally little research relating restoration methods and outcomes to geomorphic responses despite the fundamental importance of sedimentary processes and dune morphodynamics in broader ecosystem function. This paper aims to better situate dynamic dune restoration within current geomorphic understanding. A brief review of key terms and concepts used in the emerging field of dynamic dune restoration is provided and expanded upon with respect to geomorphologic considerations. A case study of a recent dynamic restoration effort in Pacific Rim National Park Reserve, British Columbia, Canada is provide to demonstrate how these concepts are applied. Introduction of European marram at this site, coupled with a warming climate and increased precipitation in recent decades at this site, is thought to be associated with a rapid decline in aeolian activity, system stabilization and accelerated ecological succession. Preliminary results on the response of the dune system to mechanical removal of Ammophila are presented to provide the foundation for a research framework to guide the broader restoration project. Recommendations for improving treatment methodologies and monitoring protocols are provided to aid future restoration projects of this nature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.