Future projections and uncertainty assessment of extreme rainfall intensity in the United States from an ensemble of climate models

Changes in climate are expected to lead to changes in the characteristics extreme rainfall frequency and intensity. In this study, we propose an integrated approach to explore potential changes in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships. The approach incorporates uncertainties due to both the short simulation periods of regional climate models (RCMs) and the differences in IDF curves derived from multiple RCMs in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The approach combines the likelihood of individual RCMs according to the goodness of fit between the extreme rainfall intensities from the RCMs’ historic runs and those from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data set and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to assess uncertainty in IDF predictions. We also partition overall uncertainties into within-model uncertainty and among-model uncertainty. Results illustrate that among-model uncertainty is the dominant source of the overall uncertainty in simulating extreme rainfall for multiple locations in the U.S., pointing to the difficulty of predicting future climate, especially extreme rainfall regimes. For all locations a more intense extreme rainfall occurs in future climate; however the rate of increase varies among locations.     

Geochemistry of basalts from the Dumisseau Formation, southern Haiti: implications for the origin of the Caribbean Sea crust

Basalt and diabase from the Cretaceous Dumisseau Formation, southern Haiti have Mg-numbers of 43–63, TiO₂ contents of 1.6–3.9% and La abundances of 3.6–15.3 ppm.La/Ta ratios average 10, and indicate that the basalts are oceanic in character, distinct from the arc associations forming the northern part of Haiti. Oldest lavas have low TiO₂ (1.6%) and are LREE-depleted, similar to N-MORBs, whereas overlying lavas have higher TiO₂ (2–3.9%) and are LREE-enriched, similar to E-MORBs or hotspot basalts.⁸⁷Sr⁸⁶Sr ratios vary from 0.70280 to 0.70316,¹⁴³Nd¹⁴⁴Nd from 0.512929 to 0.513121, and²⁰⁶Pb²⁰⁴Pb from 19.00 to 19.27. LREE-depleted lavas have high¹⁴³Nd¹⁴⁴Nd (0.51309–0.51310) typical of MORBs, whereas¹⁴³Nd¹⁴⁴Nd in the LREE-enriched lavas varies widely (0.512929–0.513121).Chemical features of the Dumisseau basalts are equivalent to those of Caribbean seafloor basalts recovered on DSDP Leg 15, and support the contention that the Dumisseau is an uplifted section of Caribbean Sea crust. Oldest lavas are analogous to MORB-like basalts cored at Leg 15 Sites 146, 150, 152 and 153, and the overlying lavas are analogous to incompatible-element-enriched basalts cored at Site 151 on the Beata Ridge. Isotopic compositions of the Dumisseau basalts overlap with those of the eastern Pacific Galapagos and Easter Island hotspots. However, the presence of N-MORB basalts in the lower part of the Dumisseau and at the majority of Leg 15 Sites indicates that the anomalously thick Caribbean crust probably did not originate as a hotspot-related basaltic plateau, but may have been generated by on-ridge or near-ridge hotspot magmatism.     

Petrogenesis of spinel lherzolite and pyroxenite suite xenoliths from the Koolau shield,Oahu, Hawaii: Implications for petrology of the post-eruptive lithosphere beneath Oahu

Three major types of xenoliths, namely, dunite, spinel lherzolite, and pyroxenite suites, occur. The spinel lherzolite suite [ol: Fo_86–92] is more refractory than the pyroxenite suite [Fo_71–85], and is composed of olivine, orthopyroxene, Cr-diopside, and spinel. Spinel lherzolites represent metasomatically modified mantle residues that constitute the lithosphere underneath Oahu. Metasomatism has induced significant heterogeneity in terms of [Na]^cpx in the spinel lherzolitic lithosphere: compared to other vents, Salt Lake xenoliths are anomalously high in [Na]^cpx. The fluids responsible for such a process may have been released after crystallization of the hydrous phases in pyroxenite suite veins intrusive into the spinel lherzolites.The pyroxenite suite rocks range from clinopyroxenites, wehrlites, websterites, to lherzolites and a rare dunite. Garnet generally occurs as a secondary phase forming reaction rims around spinel or exsolved blebs in clinopyroxene. Phlogopite and amphibole are common. The garnet-bearing pyroxenite suite rocks last equilibrated in the mantle at 1000°–1150° C and 16–25 kb (50–75 kms depth). Similar temperature range is recorded by the spinel lherzolite suite and rare plagioclase lherzolites. This P-T path is significantly hotter than a calculated conductive geotherm indicating that the lithosphere was substantially warmed up by passing Hawaiian magmas.Contribution No. 585, Geosciences Program, University of Texas at Dallas     

Earthquake precursory research in western Himalaya based on the multi-parametric geophysical observatory data

The opening of cracks and influx of fluids in the dilatancy zone of impending earthquake is expected to induce short-term changes in physical/chemical/hydrological properties during earthquake build-up cycle, which should be reflected in time-varying geophysical fields. With this rationale, eleven geophysical parameters are being recorded in continuous mode at the Multi-Parametric Geophysical Observatory (MPGO), in Ghuttu, Garhwal Himalaya, for earthquake precursory research. The critical analysis of various geophysical time series indicates anomalous behavior at few occasions; however, the data is also influenced by many external forces. These external influences are the major deterrent for the isolation of precursory signals. The recent work is focused on the data adoptive techniques to estimate and eliminate effects of solar-terrestrial and hydrological/environmental factors for delimiting the data to identify short-term precursors. Although any significant earthquake is not reported close to the observatory, some weak precursory signals and coseismic changes have been identified in few parameters related to the occurrence of moderate and strong earthquakes.     

Comparing the Slaking of Clay-Bearing Rocks Under Laboratory Conditions to Slaking Under Natural Climatic Conditions

The objective of this study was to compare the laboratory slaking behavior of common clay-bearing rocks to their slaking behavior under natural climatic conditions observed during a 1-year experimental study. Five-cycle slake durability tests were performed in the laboratory on five claystones, five mudstones, five siltstones, and five shales. Twelve replicate specimens of each of these 20 rocks were also exposed to natural climatic conditions for 12 months. After each month of exposure, one replicate specimen of each rock was removed from natural exposure and its grain size distribution was determined. The results of laboratory tests and field experiment were compared in terms of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th cycle slake durability indices (Id₁, Id₂, Id₃, Id₄, Id₅), grain size distribution of slaked material, and disintegration ratio (D _R), where D _R is the ratio of the area under the grain size distribution curve of slaked material for a given specimen to the total area encompassing all grain size distribution curves of the specimens tested. Correlations of Id₁, Id₂, Id₃, Id₄, and Id₅ with D _R values for laboratory specimens exhibit R ² values of 0.87, 0.88, 0.83, 0.75, and 0.70, respectively. However, the relationship between Id₂ and D _R, determined after 1, 3, 6, and 12 months of natural exposure, becomes weaker with increasing time of exposure, with R ² values of 0.65, 0.63, 0.63, and 0.25, respectively. The fifth-cycle slake durability index (Id₅) for laboratory tested specimens shows a better correlation with D _R values for naturally exposed specimens (R ² up to 0.80). A comparison of grain size distribution curves of slaked material for laboratory specimens, after the 2nd cycle slake durability test, with those of specimens exposed to natural climatic conditions shows that the laboratory test underestimates the field durability for claystones, and overestimates it for siltstones.     

喜马拉雅碰撞造山过程：变质地质学视角

本文从变质地质学视角出发，介绍了喜马拉雅造山带的研究意义、地质概况和近年来作者在喜马拉雅碰撞造山过程研究中的进展。喜马拉雅造山带是威尔逊旋回中陆陆碰撞造山带的典型代表，从中揭示的大陆碰撞造山过程、规律及效应，可为探索地球从古至今的碰撞造山带演化研究所借鉴。其中，大陆碰撞造山机制的研究是其核心内容。大陆碰撞造山机制存在临界楔和隧道流两种端元模型之争，其分别对造山带核部高级变质岩折返的P T t轨迹和时空演化序列进行了不同的预测。上述争议可通过研究喜马拉雅核部高级变质岩（高喜马拉雅）的P T t轨迹和折返过程来限定，据此可将喜马拉雅碰撞造山过程划分为三个演化阶段。阶段一：60～40 Ma，软碰撞期，造山带地壳加厚至约40 km并发生小规模部分熔融，这些早期地壳加厚记录大多已被剥蚀，零星保存于前陆飞来峰和北喜马拉雅片麻岩穹隆中；喜马拉雅山从海平面以下抬升至>1000 m。阶段二：40～16 Ma，硬碰撞期，造山带地壳加厚至60～70 km，发生大规模高级变质和深熔作用，高喜马拉雅内部的三个次级岩片沿着“原喜马拉雅逆冲断层”、“高喜马拉雅逆冲断层”、“主中央逆冲断层”顺序式向南挤出，形成了现今喜马拉雅造山带的核部主体，地壳堆叠使喜马拉雅山快速隆升至≥5000 m。阶段三：16～0 Ma，晚碰撞期，造山带山根榴辉岩化发生局部拆沉，但大陆汇聚仍在持续、造山带尚未发生垮塌，小喜马拉雅折返、前陆盆地形成，喜马拉雅山达到和维持现今平均高度~6000 m。因此，喜马拉雅生长过程的一级次序是顺序式向南扩展的，受控于临界楔模型，而隧道流只起次级作用。山根深部热流过程对造山带的地壳结构和地表高程有巨大的改造作用。未来对喜马拉雅造山带的变质地质学研究可能存在以下几个关键科学问题：① 喜马拉雅极端变质作用与重大碰撞造山事件的关联；② 喜马拉雅稀有金属成矿与接触变质作用的关联；③ 喜马拉雅变质脱碳作用与大陆碰撞带深部碳循环和通量。     

Proterozoic Rifting in the Pranhita-Godavari Valley: Implication on India-Antarctica Linkage

The Pranhita-Godavari (PG) Valley, a major lineament within the South Indian cratonic province, that preserves sediment dominated deposits spanning from Mesoproterozoic to Mesozoic, appears to be a key element in supercontinent reconstruction. The sedimentary basins of the Valley include a thick succession of Early Mesoproterozoic to Late Neoproterozoic rocks, the Godavari Supergroup, which is unconformably overlain by the Late Palaeozoic-Mesozoic Gondwana sequence. The Godavari Supergroup is internally punctuated by several regional and interregional unconformities into a number of unconformity-bound sequences having group level and subgroup level status. The lithostratigraphic attributes of the succession indicate multiple events of fault controlled sedimentation marked by transgression and regression, as well as uneven rates of uplift and subsidence of the basin floor in an extensional tectonic regime. The amplitude of translation of the unconformity surfaces across the base level attests to collective role of tectonic movement and sea level changes in building the stratigraphic framework of the Valley. The stratigraphic framework and depositional systems, such as fan and fan-deltas, together with local outburst of felsic volcanism further indicate repeated rifting of the craton.Geochronologic data indicate that the rift basin started to open in Early Mesoproterozoic, concomitantly with the breakup of the Mesoproterozoic supercontinent during which the India and East Gondwana fragments were separated. The spatial variation in the declivity of the unconformity surfaces, and the trend of thickness variation of the unconformity-bound sequences point that the basin deepened and opened towards southeast to join an ocean that developed between the South Indian craton and East Antarctica. The contractional deformation structures preserved in several lithounits were produced under NE-SW directed regional compression during Late Neoproterozoic basin inversion.