The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.     

Antarctic Dry Valleys and indigenous weathering in Mars meteorites: Implications for water and life on Mars

The Dry Valleys of Antarctica are an excellent analog of the environment at the surface of Mars. Soil formation histories involving slow processes of sublimation and migration of water-soluble ions in polar desert environments are characteristic of both Mars and the Dry Valleys. At the present time, the environment in the Dry Valleys is probably the most similar to that in the mid-latitudes on Mars although similar conditions may be found in areas of the polar regions during their respective Mars summers. It is thought that Mars is currently in an interglacial period, and that subsurface water ice is sublimating poleward. Because the Mars sublimation zones seem to be the most similar to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, the Dry Valleys-type Mars climate is migrating towards the poles. Mars has likely undergone drastic obliquity changes, which means that the Dry Valleys analog to Mars may be valid for large parts of Mars, including the polar regions, at different times in geologic history. Dry Valleys soils contain traces of silicate alteration products and secondary salts much like those found in Mars meteorites. A martian origin for some of the meteorite secondary phases has been verified previously; it can be based on the presence of shock effects and other features which could not have formed after the rocks were ejected from Mars, or demonstrable modification of a feature by the passage of the meteorite through Earth's atmosphere (proving the feature to be pre-terrestrial). The martian weathering products provide critical information for deciphering the near-surface history of Mars. Definite martian secondary phases include Ca-carbonate, Ca-sulfate, and Mg-sulfate. These salts are also found in soils from the Dry Valleys of Antarctica. Results of earlier Wright Valley work are consistent with what is now known about Mars based on meteorite and orbital data. Results from recent and current Mars missions support this inference. Aqueous processes are active even in permanently frozen Antarctic Dry Valleys soils, and similar processes are probably also occurring on Mars today, especially at the mid-latitudes. Both weathering products and life in Dry Valleys soils are distributed heterogeneously. Such variations should be taken into account in future studies of martian soils and also in the search for possible life on Mars.     

Crustal structure of the Whipple Mountains, southeastern California: a refraction study across a region of large continental extension

Summary. Closely spaced refraction profiling across the Whipple Mountains metamorphic core complex in southeastern California yields a complex picture of crustal structure in this region of large continental extension. A NE-directed profile, parallel to the extension direction, reveals a high-velocity mid-crustal layer (6.6–6.8 km s⁻¹) at 16-18 km depth, bounded above and below by laterally discontinuous low-velocity zones (<6.0 km s⁻¹). In marked contrast, a NW-directed profile shows a more uniform 6.0 km s⁻¹ crust down to the crust-mantle boundary. The apparent contrast between these two perpendicular profiles may be related not only to a more complex geologic structure in the NW-SE direction, but also to velocity anisotropy associated with mid-crustal mylonites. Despite the differences between the two refraction profiles, both define a flat Moho at 26-27 km depth with an associated upper mantle-velocity of 7.8 km s⁻¹. This observation is significant as it suggests that, although the amount of extension has been highly variable regionally, the crust is no thinner beneath the Whipple Mountains (where extension has been extreme) than the surrounding mountain ranges. Such an observation requires either that the crust was considerably thicker prior to extension, or that lateral flow in the lower crust and/or inflation of the crust via magmatism occurred contemporaneous with extension.     

The importance of interactions for mass loss from satellite galaxies in cold dark matter haloes

We investigate the importance of interactions between dark matter substructures for the mass loss they suffer whilst orbiting within a sample of high-resolution galaxy cluster mass cold dark matter (CDM) haloes formed in cosmological N -body simulations. We have defined a quantitative measure that gauges the degree to which interactions are responsible for mass loss from substructures. This measure indicates that interactions are more prominent in younger systems when compared to older more relaxed systems. We show that this is due to the increased number of encounters a satellite experiences and a higher mass fraction in satellites. This is in spite of the uniformity in the distributions of relative distances and velocities of encounters between substructures within the different host systems in our sample.
Using a simple model to relate the net force felt by a single satellite to the mass loss it suffers, we show that interactions with other satellites account for ∼30 per cent of the total mass loss experienced over its lifetime. The relation between the age of the host and the importance of interactions increases the scatter about this mean value from ∼25 per cent for the oldest to ∼45 per cent for the youngest system we have studied. We conclude that satellite interactions play a vital role in the evolution of substructure in dark matter haloes and that a significant fraction of the tidally stripped material can be attributed to these interactions.     

Extent of chondrule melting: Evaluation of experimental textures,nominal grain size,and convolution index

Abstract— Dynamic crystallization experiments on the ordinary chondrite Queen Alexandra Range (QUE) 97008 document textural features that occur in partially melted chondrules with changes in the degree of partial melting and cooling rate. We carried out a matrix of experiments, at peak temperatures of 1250, 1350, 1370, and 1450 °C, and cooling rates of 1000, 100, and 10 °C/h, and quenched. All experimentally produced textures closely resemble textures of porphyritic chondrules. Because peak temperatures were well below the liquidi for typical chondrule compositions, the textural similarities support an incomplete melting origin for most porphyritic chondrules. Our experiments can be used to determine the extent of melting of natural chondrules by comparing textural relationships among the experimental results with those of natural chondrules. We used our experiments along with X‐ray computerized tomography scans of a Semarkona chondrule to evaluate two other methods that have been used previously to quantify the degree of melting: nominal grain size and convolution index. Proper applications of these methods can result in valid assessments of a chondrule's degree of melting, but only if accompanied by careful interpretation, as chondrule textures are controlled by more than just the extent of melting. Such measurements of single aspects of chondrule textures might be coupled with qualitative analysis of other textural aspects to accurately determine degree of melting.     

Chemical studies of copper-organic complexes isolated from estuarine waters using C18 reverse-phase liquid chromatography

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) and dissolved copper-organic complexes were isolated from the estuarine waters of Narragansett Bay, RI, using reverse-phase liquid chromatography employing C₁₈ Sep-Pak cartridges (Waters Associates). The cartridges were found to have a constant retention efficiency for processing ? 1-l volumes of seawater. Fractionation of the isolated material, by sequential elution of the Sep-Pak with water: methanol mixtures of increasing organic solvent concentration, yielded a fraction of the organic matter with a specific copper activity six times greater than the overall activity for the isolated DOM. Analysis of this fraction by high performance liquid chromatography suggested that the organic components are of intermediate polarity and have appreciable aromatic character.An investigation of the protonation characteristics of the isolated complexes indicated that most of the copper is associated with a broad range of acidic sites on the DOM. Analysis by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy confirmed the organic association of the isolated copper and also suggested the presence of several types of binding sites which probably involve oxygen donor ligands.Studies of the exchange of ⁶⁴Cu with these binding sites on the isolated DOM indicated that 70% of the sites undergo rapid exchange with copper in seawater while 20% of these sites did not exchange in a 24-h time period.     

Isolation of dissolved organic matter and copper-organic complexes from estuarine waters using reverse-phase liquid chromatography

Reverse-phase liquid chromatography was used for the isolation of dissolved organic matter and dissolved copper-organic complexes from the estuarine waters of Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island. The procedure isolates 10–30% of the organic matter and up to 50% of the total dissolved copper from various bay samples. Chromatograms obtained by high-performance liquid chromatography of the isolated organic matter showed qualitative differences between sampling stations progressing from the Providence River in the upper bay to the lower bay.