Time-clustering of natural hazards

Natural hazards can be represented as point processes that are characterized by the occurrence times of the events and their intensities. It is crucial to investigate the correlation properties of these processes in order to gain a deep knowledge of the dynamical mechanisms which underlie hazardous phenomena. To this end, suitable methodologies must be developed to perform these correlation analyses on processes, which are described as point-like processes. The concept of time-clustering implies a time-structured organization of these processes, and is in direct opposition to the pure randomness typical of Poissonian processes in which the events are uncorrelated. This article reports several examples of natural hazards within the framework of time-clustering.     

The light transmission and seiche depth of Izmir Bay,western Turkey

Izmir Bay is one of the most polluted estuaries in the whole Mediterranean Sea. The inner part of the Bay (Inner Bay) is heavily affected by domestic and industrial discharge. As a result of these loads, strong eutrophication occurs in the Inner Bay, which is temporally anaerobic. The ecologically sensitive approach of the local authorities during the last decade has given rise to a wide variety of monitoring and research studies on this bay. On the other hand, the municipality of Izmir started to operate wastewater treatment facilities since January 2000. The Institute of Marine Sciences and Technology — Izmir (IMST) with its research vessel R/V K Piri Reis has been conducting an intensive monitoring program since 1988 and especially during the recent few years. These investigations provide an opportunity for the evaluation of the performance of the wastewater treatment plant in terms of the change in the optical properties of Izmir Bay water in a positive manner. The turbidity values measured in these monitoring studies indicate that the values have changed drastically after January 2000. Their spatial variation indicates that the values decrease from the Inner Bay towards the Aegean Sea. The turbidity (light transmission) values are measured with an automatic CTD (conductivity, temperature and depth) system during each cruise. The seiche disc depth measurement is carried out only occasionally. The accuracy of the seiche disc depth is dependent on certain daylight conditions and depends on the operator. The seiche disc depth (D _s) is an important parameter to estimate primary production of organic matter (hereafter called production). A relation between light transmission (turbidity) value and seiche disc depth (D _s) is found with very good agreement. The correlations are very high (approximately 0.94) with slight seasonal variation.     

Solute and isotope constraint of groundwater recharge simulation in an arid environment,Abu Dhabi Emirate,United Arab Emirates

A simple, well-constrained simulation of solute increases in a downgradient direction was used in the shallow unconfined aquifer of eastern Abu Dhabi Emirate (United Arab Emirates). The simulation indicates that the observed exponential increase in solute concentrations results from a combination of upward transport of solutes from underlying mudstones and evaporites, and groundwater losses by evaporation. Groundwater recharge and discharge flux in unconfined regional aquifers in arid regions commonly are difficult to estimate because there are few constraints on the flux of water lost or gained from the system. Total dissolved solids (TDS) and deuterium isotopes (δ²H) in groundwater are used to constrain estimated fluxes to the shallow aquifer of eastern Abu Dhabi Emirate. Vertical upward transport of solutes from underlying mudstones and evaporites accounts for solute increases along approximately the first 80 km of the simulated flow path, but a combination of upward solute transport and evaporation is necessary to explain observed solute concentrations beyond 80 km. Mobilization and transport of solutes in the unsaturated zone by recharging precipitation is not a significant factor.

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Résumé Une simulation simple et bien contrainte de l’augmentation des solutés dans la direction de l’écoulement a été réalisée sur l’aquifère phréatique et libre de l’Est de l’émirat d’Abu Dhabi (émirats Arabes Unis). La simulation indique que l’augmentation observée de solutés, de forme exponentielle, est le produit de la combinaison du transport ascendant de solutés provenant des mudstones et des évaporites sous-jacents, et de l’évaporation des eaux souterraines. La recharge des eaux souterraines et les flux de vidange dans les aquifères régionaux libres des régions arides sont habituellement difficiles à estimer du fait du peu de contraintes agissant sur la perte ou le gain d’eau dans le système. La charge dissoute totale (TDS, en anglais) et les isotopes deutérium (δ²H) des eaux souterraines sont utilisés pour contraindre l’estimation des flux en direction de l’aquifère phréatique de l’Est de l’émirat d’Abu Dhabi. Le transport vertical ascendant des solutés à partir des mudstones et des évaporites fait parti des processus qui concentrent les solutés approximativement le long des 80 premiers kilomètres du trajet des écoulements simulés, mais une combinaison du transport ascendant des solutés et de l’évaporation est nécessaire pour expliquer les concentrations observées en soluté au delà des 80 km. La mobilisation et le transport des solutés par les précipitations efficaces dans la zone non saturée ne représentent pas des facteurs significatifs.

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Resumen Se utilizó una simulación simple y muy restringida, de incrementos de soluto en la dirección del flujo, en el acuífero libre poco profundo del Emirato oriental de Abu Dhabi, (Emiratos árabes Unidos). La simulación indica que el aumento exponencial observado en las concentraciones del soluto, resulta de una combinación de transporte ascendente de solutos desde las evaporitas y lodolitas subyacentes, y por pérdidas del agua subterránea por evaporación. Los flujos de recarga y descarga de agua subterránea, en los acuíferos libres regionales en regiones áridas, normalmente son difíciles estimar, porque hay algunas restricciones en el flujo de agua perdido o ganado por el sistema. Los sólidos disueltos totales (TDS) y los isótopos de deuterio (δ²H) en el agua subterránea, se usan para forzar los flujos estimados hacia el acuífero poco profundo del Emirato oriental de Abu Dhabi. El transporte ascendente vertical de solutos desde las lodolitas y evaporitas subyacentes, involucra los aumentos del soluto a lo largo de aproximadamente los primeros 80 Km. de la dirección de flujo simulada, pero es necesaria una combinación de transporte ascendente del soluto y la evaporación para explicar las concentraciones del soluto observadas más allá de 80 Km. La movilización y transporte de solutos en la zona no saturada, por recarga debida a precipitación, no es un factor significante.

     

Epikarst communities: biodiversity hotspots and potential water tracers

There is an exceptionally rich aquatic fauna in the epikarst, the skin of karst. High species richness in the epikarst, coupled with its special vulnerability as the first point of entry of nearly all toxic spills, makes its protection especially important. The epikarst fauna may also be an useful tool in tracing the potential route of pollutants. Copepods in epikarst have extremely local distributions, and their body size is such that they are largely at the mercy of directional flows. In a series of caves in southwest Slovenia and West Virginia, a significant fraction of the copepod species occur in less than 100 m of linear extent. This suggests a pattern of highly restricted lateral flow under normal conditions and the distribution of copepods could potentially be used to trace water movement. Under high flow conditions as would often be the case with toxic spill, mounding of water may increase the lateral radius of flow. Nevertheless, copepods may be useful tracers.     

Archaean high-K granitoids produced by remelting of earlier Tonalite–Trondhjemite–Granodiorite (TTG) in the Sangmelima region of the Ntem complex of the Congo craton,southern Cameroon

We present a geochemical and isotopic study that, consistent with observed field relations, suggest Sangmelima late Archaean high-K granite was derived by partial melting of older Archaean TTG. The TTG formations are sodic-trondhjemitic, showing calcic and calc-alkalic trends and are metaluminous to peraluminous. High-K granites in contrast show a potassic calc-alkaline affinity that spans the calcic, calc-alkalic, alkali-calcic and alkalic compositions. The two rock groups (TTG and high-K granites) on the other hand are both ferroan and magnesian. They have a similar degree of fractionation for LREE but a different one for HREE. Nd model ages and Sr/Y ratios define Mesoarchaean and slab-mantle derived magma compositions respectively, with Nb and Ti anomalies indicating a subduction setting for the TTG. Major and trace element in addition to Sr and Nd isotopic compositions support field observations that indicate the derivation of the high-K granitic group from the partial melting of the older TTG equivalent at depth. Geochemical characteristics of the high-K granitic group are therefore inherited features from the TTG protolith and cannot be used for determining their tectonic setting. The heat budget required for TTG partial melting is ascribed to the upwelling of the mantle marked by a doleritic event of identical age as the generated high-K granite melts. The cause of this upwelling is related to linear delamination along mega-shear zones in an intracontinental setting.     

Environmental impact assessment of risk associated with groundwater overdraft remediation in cone of depression,Jining, China

In this paper, a simple scenario and probabilistic approach is used to assess the potential groundwater risk due to proposed overdraft remedial actions in cone of depression, Jining City, China. Focusing on the concentrations of Chloride ions (Cl⁻) and total hardness (TH), the impact of artificial recharge and reduced pumping on groundwater quality and quantity is analysed by using the three-dimensional finite difference groundwater flow and transport model, Visual MODFLOW, to simulate groundwater flow and transport within the study area based on scenarios, and utilizes SURFER software to map risk levels. Although 5, 10 or 15% reduced pumping with artificial recharge leads to more decrease in Cl⁻ and TH concentrations than the 25%, less volume increase is achieved for the remediation of land subsidence and other environmental problems in the cone of depression. The Cl⁻ concentrations in recovered groundwater are within the desired concentration of 200 mg/l; however, TH in some cases are above the maximum permissible limit of 500 mg/l, with an exceedence probability of about 0.67 for recharge and recharge with reduced pumping at 25%. The presence of fractures and hydrogeological complexity greatly determines impacts of remediation, and the 22% reduced pumping with artificial recharge offers an optimum strategy for overdraft remediation in the Jining cone of depression.     

Pedotransfer functions to estimate soil water content at field capacity and permanent wilting point in hot Arid Western India

Characterization of soil water retention, e.g., water content at field capacity (FC) and permanent wilting point (PWP) over a landscape plays a key role in efficient utilization of available scarce water resources in dry land agriculture; however, direct measurement thereof for multiple locations in the field is not always feasible. Therefore, pedotransfer functions (PTFs) were developed to estimate soil water retention at FC and PWP for dryland soils of India. A soil database available for Arid Western India (N=370) was used to develop PTFs. The developed PTFs were tested in two independent datasets from arid regions of India (N=36) and an arid region of USA (N=1789). While testing these PTFs using independent data from India, root mean square error (RMSE) was found to be 2.65 and 1.08 for FC and PWP, respectively, whereas for most of the tested ‘established’ PTFs, the RMSE was >3.41 and >1.15, respectively. Performance of the developed PTFs from the independent dataset from USA was comparable with estimates derived from ‘established’ PTFs. For wide applicability of the developed PTFs, a user-friendly soil moisture calculator was developed. The PTFs developed in this study may be quite useful to farmers for scheduling irrigation water as per soil type.     

Hybridization of the probability perturbation method with gradient information

Geostatistically based history-matching methods make it possible to devise history-matching strategies that will honor geologic knowledge about the reservoir. However, the performance of these methods is known to be impeded by slow convergence rates resulting from the stochastic nature of the algorithm. It is the purpose of this paper to introduce a method that integrates qualitative gradient information into the probability perturbation method to improve convergence. The potential of the proposed method is demonstrated on a synthetic history-matching example. The results indicate that inclusion of qualitative gradient information improves the performance of the probability perturbation method.     

A coupling of mixed and continuous Galerkin finite element methods for poroelasticity II: the discrete-in-time case

In this paper, we formulate a finite element procedure for approximating the coupled fluid and mechanics in Biot’s consolidation model of poroelasticity. Here, we approximate the pressure by a mixed finite element method and the displacements by a Galerkin method. Theoretical convergence error estimates are derived in a discrete-in-time setting. Of particular interest is the case when the lowest-order Raviart–Thomas approximating space or cell-centered finite differences are used in the mixed formulation and continuous piecewise linear approximations are used for displacements. This approach appears to be the one most frequently applied to existing reservoir engineering simulators.     

Chemical and Strontium Isotopic Compositions of the Hanjiang Basin Rivers in China: Anthropogenic Impacts and Chemical Weathering

The Hanjiang River, the largest tributaries of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River, is the water source area of the Middle Route of China’s South-to-North Water Transfer Project. The chemical and strontium isotopic compositions of the river waters are determined with the main purpose of understanding the contribution of chemical weathering processes and anthropogenic inputs on river solutes, as well as the associated CO₂ consumption in the carbonate-dominated basin. The major ion compositions of the Hanjiang River waters are characterized by the dominance of Ca²⁺ and HCO₃ ⁻, followed by Mg²⁺ and SO₄ ²⁻. The increase in TDS and major anions (Cl⁻, NO₃ ⁻, and SO₄ ²⁻) concentrations from upstream to downstream is ascribed to both extensive influences from agriculture and domestic activities over the Hanjiang basin. The chemical and Sr isotopic analyses indicate that three major weathering sources (dolomite, limestone, and silicates) contribute to the total dissolved loads. The contributions of the different end-members to the dissolved load are calculated with the mass balance approach. The calculated results show that the dissolved load is dominated by carbonates weathering, the contribution of which accounts for about 79.4% for the Hanjiang River. The silicate weathering and anthropogenic contributions are approximately 12.3 and 6.87%, respectively. The total TDS fluxes from chemical weathering calculated for the water source area (the upper Hanjiang basin) and the whole Hanjiang basin are approximately 3.8 × 10⁶ and 6.1 × 10⁶ ton/year, respectively. The total chemical weathering (carbonate and silicate) rate for the Hanjiang basin is approximately 38.5 ton/km²/year or 18.6 mm/k year, which is higher than global mean values. The fluxes of CO₂ consumption by carbonate and silicate weathering are estimated to be 56.4 × 10⁹ and 12.9 × 10⁹ mol/year, respectively.