Improved fuzzy weighted optimum curve-fitting method for estimating the parameters of a Pearson Type-III distribution

ABSTRACT

The objective of the curve-fitting method is to determine the optimal distribution by parameter estimation. The selection of the parameter estimation methods and the determination of the parameter estimation results may vary according to the different aims of the curve fitting, as well as the different accuracies and positions of the points. To solve the problem, the fuzzy weighted optimum curve-fitting method (FWOCM) was used to deal with the characters. The deficiencies of the original FWOCM were analysed, and it was found that the membership function and nomograph were unable to effectively deal with the curve fitting. An improved method and its indexes were evaluated, using effectiveness and unbiasedness as the assessment criteria, while scoring and percentage methods were chosen to comprehensively assess the statistical results. Compared with FWOCM, the results showed greater effectiveness and unbiasedness in the improved method.     

山东长岛海域震群重定位及震源特征研究

基于山东数字化地震台站的震相资料和胶东半岛地区的速度结构模型,利用双差定位方法对2017年2月14日开始的山东长岛地区双震群进行重新定位,结果显示主震群余震序列分布沿一级断裂分布,震群位置比较集中。并利用CAP方法（Cut and Paste）对长岛海域2个震群中的几个较大地震进行震源机制解的反演分析,其中,2017年3月3日的主震震源机制解的节面Ⅰ走向为320°,倾角57°,滑动角为12°;节面Ⅱ走向为223.4°,倾角80°,滑动角为146.4°;主震的最佳拟合深度在9.7km,6次较大地震的节面Ⅰ走向也基本一致。     

嫩江断裂带北段的第四纪活动特征初步研究

嫩江断裂带是松辽盆地的西边界断裂,但受第四系强覆盖等研究条件的限制,前人对该断裂第四纪构造活动的研究较少。本文针对该断裂带北段开展了野外地质调查,并综合大地电磁测深和纵波速度结构等结果,初步研究了嫩江断裂带北段的第四纪活动特征。调查发现,该断裂北段主要发育地貌陡坎、基岩滑坡、地层揉皱变形、近垂直擦痕、基岩崩塌与线性断塞塘等特征。探槽古地震研究揭示断裂带北段在（80.9±4.6）—（62.9±2.3）ka BP曾发生1次古地震事件,运动方式为正断,垂直位移量约1.5m,震级约为M_S 7.1—7.3,断裂在晚更新世曾发生过强烈活动。研究结果有助于认识了解该断裂和松辽盆地的第四纪构造变形过程,并为评价该断裂及邻区的地震活动潜势提供参考。     

2018年9月4日新疆伽师MS5.5地震序列及发震构造讨论

2018年9月4日新疆伽师发生M_S5.5地震,震中处于塔里木地块西北缘,位于1997~1998年伽师强震群震区内。此次伽师地震前发生了M_S4.7前震,截至9月30日最大余震震级为M_S4.6（M_L5.0）,初步判定为前-主-余型地震序列。序列精定位结果显示,余震沿近NE向展布,主震震源深度与1997~1998年伽师强震主震基本一致,发震断层陡立。本文从区域的构造环境、地震震源机制解和余震分布特征等方面分析认为,地震发生在伽师隐伏断裂东南端部,为1997~1998年伽师强震群震区的一次新的构造活动。序列参数、视应力等计算结果显示,伽师M_S5.5地震的预测最大余震震级与最大余震震级M_S4.6接近,表明序列最大余震已经发生。     

浙江省测震观测台网井下地震计方位角检测与校正

选取浙江省测震台网景宁、北仑、南麂岛地震台井下地震计观测数据,采用地震数据波形相关性分析法,与地表地震计同步观测数据进行相关性分析,检测并校正井下地震计方位角,结果发现,3个地震台井下地震计方位角实际偏差分别为82.2°、-22.8°、32.2°。分析认为,井下地震计安装易受线缆应力影响,导致方位角与实际偏差过大,应在应力释放完成后固定地震计,并架设地表地震计进行数据相关性分析,以确定方位角可靠性。     

离散Fréchet距离在强震台站场地分类中的应用

当强震台站场地资料不完整时,所收集到的强震数据因缺乏准确的场地类别信息而难以有效利用。为解决这一问题,本文提出一种基于离散Fréchet距离的强震台站场地分类方法。将获取到的664个KiK-net台站场地按照《建筑抗震设计规范（GB 50011—2010）》进行分类,并构建2个数据集。利用数据集1得到Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ类场地标准谱比曲线,并结合离散Fréchet距离对数据集2中的台站进行场地分类,统计分类成功率与误判率。统计结果表明,本文方法能较准确地对场地进行分类,且误判率在可接受范围内。将本文方法分类统计结果与斯皮尔曼秩相关系数法分类的成功率与误判率进行对比,结合本文方法分类后得到的平均谱比曲线,均可表明应用本文方法进行强震台站场地分类具有合理性。     

Full moment tensor inversion constrained by double-couple focal mechanism for induced seismicity*

In this study, we propose a new method to determine full moment tensor solution for induced seismicity. This method generalizes the full waveform matching algorithm we have developed to determine the double-couple (DC) focal mechanism based on the neighbourhood algorithm. One major difference between the new method and the former one is that we adopt a new misfit function to constrain the candidate moment tensor solutions with respect to a reference DC solution in addition to other misfit terms characterizing the waveform matching. Through synthetic tests using a real passive seismic survey geometry, the results show the new constraint can help better recover the DC components of inverted moment tensors. We further investigate how errors in the velocity model and source location affect the moment tensor solution. The synthetic test results indicate that the constrained inversion is robust in recovering both the DC and non-DC components. We also test the proposed method on several real induced events in an oil/gas field in Oman using the same observation system as synthetic tests. While it is found that the full moment tensor solutions without using the DC constraints have much larger non-DC components than solutions with the DC constraints, both solutions are able to fit the observed waveforms at similar levels. The synthetic and real test results suggest the proposed DC constrained inversion method can reliably retrieve full moment tensor solutions for the induced seismicity.     

New methods of controlled-source electromagnetic detection in China

As an important branch of geophysical exploration method, the electromagnetic method with artificial source has advanced rapidly in the past decade. These methods are classified as airborne electromagnetic method, ground-air electromagnetic method, ground electromagnetic method, and marine electromagnetic method. Over the years, researchers in China have made significant improvement to the fundamental theory, forward modeling and inverse for series of electromagnetic detection methods. Conversely, significant progress was made in the development of corresponding equipment. The researched techniques and their developed equipment have been successfully utilized to detect underground targets as deep as 10 km.However, there is increasing need for deep resources exploration, urban subsurface study, and prediction, monitoring and detection of geological hazards. To meet the increasing need and catch up with the advanced international level of exploration technologies and developed equipment, there is urgent necessity and requirement to continue developing geophysical methods and the corresponding equipment.     

Status and prospect of 3D inversions in EM geophysics

1.Current status Three-dimensional(3D)inversion of geophysical EM data is generally underdetermined,non-linear,and of large-scale that is very difficult to solve by optimization.In the past two decades,with the advancement of computational equipment and numerical algorithms,3D geophysical EM inversion has made great progress.Numerous inversion codes and platforms based on the regularizations have been successfully developed and are being widely used in the industry and scientific research.The development of 3D EM inversions mainly involve the following aspects.     

一次强风暴三维结构的观测分析

2003年6月28日山东德州发生了一次降雹持续时间长、危害严重的强降雹天气过程。利用MICAPS、探空、NCEP资料,分析了降雹前的天气形势、能量场特征、含水量场。根据两部多普勒天气雷达资料,分析了雹云的演变过程及流场结构。研究表明,降雹前在降雹区上空西边低层存在高能舌,在中高层西边存在负能量平流或负能量平流中心。此次超级单体风暴过程由单个单体发展而来,具有强超级单体风暴的典型特征。该超级单体的移动方向在盛行风向右侧约20°左右,属于右移风暴。