青藏高原净生态系统碳交换量的遥感评估模型研究

青藏高原作为世界海拔最高的区域,是全球气候变化的敏感区之一。定量估算这一区域的净生态系统碳交换量（NEE）有利于理解陆地生态系统碳平衡对未来气候变化的响应。本文构建了一个模拟该地区NEE动态变化的净碳收支模型（NCBM）。该模型由来源于MODIS影像的增强型植被指数（EVI）、陆地表面水分指数（LSWI）以及来源于地面观测的空气温度和短波辐射共同驱动,并利用青藏高原地区的3种植被类型（包括高寒灌丛、高寒湿地和高寒草甸）的碳通量长期观测数据对模型进行了校准和验证。结果表明,在模型校准站点年,NCBM模型可以模拟NEE观测值81%的变化,均方根误差（RMSE）为0.03molC/m2/d,模型效率（EF）为0.81。在模型验证站点年,NCBM模型可以预测NEE观测值84%的变化,RMSE为0.03molC/m2/d,EF为0.81。在大多数情况下,NCBM模型可以清晰地模拟各植被类型的NEE季节和年际变化。此外,NCBM模型因为结构简单,模型驱动变量易于获取等优势,具有在区域尺度上模拟NEE时空变化的潜力。但是该模型还需要进一步的改进和发展,特别需要提高对植被非常稀疏地区NEE变化的模拟能力。     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

The potential of contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter in intertidal sediments as a proxy of mangrove development in the northern Beibu Gulf

University of Maryland, College Park     

模拟地震的弹簧滑块模型的混沌运动

我们构造了一种自由度为２的双弹簧滑块系统，讨论模型参数的不均匀性和滑块间的相互作用与复杂现象的关系。假定滑块在所受力小于其静摩擦力时保持静止，因此，只有发生了滑动，两滑块所受力之差才改变。如果我们以两滑块受力之差为变量，就可以构造一种一维的映射。这种映射直观地显示了系统的演化，反映了方程终态解的形态。结果表明，用混沌运动来描述地震现象可能是较为合理的。     

基于MICAPS4的智能网格预报平台设计与实现

随着我国智能网格预报业务的开展,海量高分辨率客观数据需要便捷的分析显示及产品制作平台高效处理。该文基于MICAPS4（Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4.0,人机交互气象信息处理和天气预报制作系统）设计并实现智能网格预报平台,采用MVVM（模型-视图-视图模型,model-view-viewmodel）设计模式,实现业务逻辑与视图的分离,通过对各子功能模块的划分,降低模块之间的耦合度,具有良好的可扩展性。平台实现了高分辨率网格预报数据的显示分析和产品输出,开发了基于等值线、网格、关键点等智能化预报制作工具,集成了降水时间拆分、温度极值订正等客观预报方法,开发了降水、温度、相对湿度等要素一致性处理方法,可有效帮助预报员提高工作效率,同时能够确保产品之间的一致性。平台继承MICAPS4的微内核组件服务、高性能渲染引擎和开放式插件扩展管理等优良特性,实现面向智能网格预报的业务编排、智能编辑和算法集成。目前,该平台已经实现业务应用,为全国智能网格预报业务提供重要支撑。     

傅立叶变换红外光谱联用技术在化石燃料分析中的应用

对傅立叶变换红外光谱联用技术在化石燃料分析中的应用进行了较全面的总结评述,重点介绍了气相色谱／红外光谱联机、高压液相色谱／红外光谱联机、薄层色谱／红外光谱联机、超临界流体色谱／红外光谱联机、裂解色谱／红外光谱联机、热重分析／红外光谱联机、气相色谱／红外光谱／质谱三机联用技术等在化石燃料的结构组分分析、成因机理研究及其勘探等诸方面的重要应用,尤其是在芳香族化合物和几何异构体的分离鉴定方面发挥出的突出功效。引用文献５９篇。     

Intensifying Earthquake Prediction in the Light of Action of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas     

Discussion on the Relation Between the Probabilistic Distribution of Magnitude in a Seismic Province and That in an Area with Potential Seismic Source

According to the joint probabilistic distribution model of magnitude and space,the author discusses the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in an area with potential seismic sources.The results show that if the magnitude probabilistic distribution follows the truncated exponential form in a seismic province,there must be some potential source in which the magnitude probabilistic distribution does not conform to that form.The result is consistent with the concept of "characteristic earthquake" derived from the study of actual records of seismicity and the study of geology.The author suggests that the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in a seismic potential area must be considered in the study of the analysis of seismicity,seismic zonation and engineering seismology,for the purpose of the evaluation of the probabilistic distribution of magnitude correctly in every area with potential s     

Model of wind-generated ambient noise in stratified shallow water

In order to build a rapid ocean ambient noise model adapted for a stratified shallow water, a hybrid model of normal mode method (for far field) and ray method (for near field) is suggested which combines the advantages of both methods. Since the near field of wind-generated noise is not sensitive to the sound speed profile, the sound speed profile is regarded as a constant; which makes the model rapid and accurate. The simulation results are in agreement with those of the wave model.