青藏高原净生态系统碳交换量的遥感评估模型研究

青藏高原作为世界海拔最高的区域,是全球气候变化的敏感区之一。定量估算这一区域的净生态系统碳交换量（NEE）有利于理解陆地生态系统碳平衡对未来气候变化的响应。本文构建了一个模拟该地区NEE动态变化的净碳收支模型（NCBM）。该模型由来源于MODIS影像的增强型植被指数（EVI）、陆地表面水分指数（LSWI）以及来源于地面观测的空气温度和短波辐射共同驱动,并利用青藏高原地区的3种植被类型（包括高寒灌丛、高寒湿地和高寒草甸）的碳通量长期观测数据对模型进行了校准和验证。结果表明,在模型校准站点年,NCBM模型可以模拟NEE观测值81%的变化,均方根误差（RMSE）为0.03molC/m2/d,模型效率（EF）为0.81。在模型验证站点年,NCBM模型可以预测NEE观测值84%的变化,RMSE为0.03molC/m2/d,EF为0.81。在大多数情况下,NCBM模型可以清晰地模拟各植被类型的NEE季节和年际变化。此外,NCBM模型因为结构简单,模型驱动变量易于获取等优势,具有在区域尺度上模拟NEE时空变化的潜力。但是该模型还需要进一步的改进和发展,特别需要提高对植被非常稀疏地区NEE变化的模拟能力。     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

Closed-form solution of P4P or the three-dimensional resection problem in terms of Möbius barycentric coordinates

 The perspective 4 point (P4P) problem - also called the three-dimensional resection problem - is solved by means of a new algorithm: At first the unknown Cartesian coordinates of the perspective center are computed by means of M?bius barycentric coordinates. Secondly these coordinates are represented in terms of observables, namely space angles in the five-dimensional simplex generated by the unknown point and the four known points. Substitution of M?bius barycentric coordinates leads to the unknown Cartesian coordinates (2.8)–(2.10) of Box 2.2. The unknown distances within the five-dimensional simplex are determined by solving the Grunert equations, namely by forward reduction to one algebraic equation (3.8) of order four and backward linear substitution. Tables 1.–4. contain a numerical example. Finally we give a reference to the solution of the 3 point (P3P) problem, the two-dimensional resection problem, namely to the Ansermet barycentric coordinates initiated by C.F. Gau? (1842), A. Schreiber (1908) and A.␣Ansermet (1910). Received: 05 March 1996; Accepted: 15 October 1996     

The potential of contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter in intertidal sediments as a proxy of mangrove development in the northern Beibu Gulf

University of Maryland, College Park     

模拟地震的弹簧滑块模型的混沌运动

我们构造了一种自由度为２的双弹簧滑块系统，讨论模型参数的不均匀性和滑块间的相互作用与复杂现象的关系。假定滑块在所受力小于其静摩擦力时保持静止，因此，只有发生了滑动，两滑块所受力之差才改变。如果我们以两滑块受力之差为变量，就可以构造一种一维的映射。这种映射直观地显示了系统的演化，反映了方程终态解的形态。结果表明，用混沌运动来描述地震现象可能是较为合理的。     

Thermal simulation of basic volcanic fluid influence on different source rocks

Based on thermal simulation experiment, interactions between volcanic fluids and source rocks were studied. Gas generations in the dry system and fluid system under different temperatures were analyzed. The results showed that the various types of source rocks are similar in composition, containing gaseous C1-C5 hydrocarbons, H2 and CO2 whose gas yields increase with increasing temperature. The gas yield of source rocks of type I is the high- est, followed by type II, and that of source rocks of type III is the lowest, indicating that the yield of hydrocarbon gases is related to their hydrocarbon generating potential. Although the generating potential of type III is the lowest, it can still be regarded as a useful gas source when it is buried deeply enough. The basic volcanic fluid restrains the generation of gaseous hydrocarbons in different types of source rocks, but promotes the generation of inorganic gases.     

Discussion on the Relation Between the Probabilistic Distribution of Magnitude in a Seismic Province and That in an Area with Potential Seismic Source

According to the joint probabilistic distribution model of magnitude and space,the author discusses the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in an area with potential seismic sources.The results show that if the magnitude probabilistic distribution follows the truncated exponential form in a seismic province,there must be some potential source in which the magnitude probabilistic distribution does not conform to that form.The result is consistent with the concept of "characteristic earthquake" derived from the study of actual records of seismicity and the study of geology.The author suggests that the relationship between the probabilistic distribution of magnitude in a seismic province and that in a seismic potential area must be considered in the study of the analysis of seismicity,seismic zonation and engineering seismology,for the purpose of the evaluation of the probabilistic distribution of magnitude correctly in every area with potential s     

大地电场观测深埋铅电极测量系统试验

为使用铅电极替代不极化电极,以解决滨海地区大地电场观测系统稳定性差的问题,先后开展了浅埋的铅电极与不极化电极的大地电场对比观测,以及深埋铅电极与浅埋铅电极的对比观测试验。结果表明:铅电极与固体不极化电极的观测数据在短期内有较好的一致性;深埋铅电极的大地电场观测资料在长期稳定性上优于固体不极化电极;而观测数据的内在观测质量也高于浅埋铅电极。     

帕米尔东北缘穷阿木太克岩体年代学、地球化学特征及地质意义

分布于帕米尔东北缘羌塘地块上的穷阿木太克岩体,与班公湖怒江洋的闭合有着密切关系。岩体主要由英云闪长岩、花岗闪长岩和二长花岗岩组成。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年结果显示,穷阿木太克岩体的形成年龄为(107.0±1.2) Ma(MSWD=0.55),属于早白垩世晚期。地球化学结果显示,主量元素具有富Ca、富K、富碱等特点,岩石Al含量较高,为弱过铝质花岗岩系列,具典型的钙碱性特征。稀土元素具有轻稀土富集、重稀土亏损的右倾型特征,并显示弱的负铕异常。微量元素表现出大离子亲石元素Rb、Th、U、K高度富集和高场强元素Nb、Ta、Ti、Hf强烈亏损。岩石在成因上可能是地壳下部基性岩石经熔融或部分熔融作用形成的。结合本区所处的构造环境,早白垩世晚期穷阿木太克岩体可能形成于羌塘地块与冈底斯地块之间同碰撞(挤压环境)向碰撞后(伸展环境)的转化阶段,为后造山花岗岩类,岩石系列从早到晚由中钾钙碱性系列向钾玄岩系列演化。     

天文观测科学实践中心技术实现

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