模拟地震的弹簧滑块模型的混沌运动

我们构造了一种自由度为２的双弹簧滑块系统，讨论模型参数的不均匀性和滑块间的相互作用与复杂现象的关系。假定滑块在所受力小于其静摩擦力时保持静止，因此，只有发生了滑动，两滑块所受力之差才改变。如果我们以两滑块受力之差为变量，就可以构造一种一维的映射。这种映射直观地显示了系统的演化，反映了方程终态解的形态。结果表明，用混沌运动来描述地震现象可能是较为合理的。     

Intensifying Earthquake Prediction in the Light of Action of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction

This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas     

关于地震台站极性校正的问题

国内外的台网中总是一些台站，其极性读取似乎是由大量台站Ｐ波初动的整体分布确定的震源机制相矛盾，这些矛盾通常被作为坏读（ｂａｄ ｒｅａｄｉｎｇ）处理，造成台站的极性问题的复杂原因究竟是什么，利用ＮＥＩＣ的核爆资料，文中给出两种可能推测：台站仪器本身的不可和地震本身的复杂性。     

北京地区地震、爆破和矿震的记录图识别

以北京地区台网数据为例，讨论了天然地震、人工地震和矿山地震的区别，并对多重地震和不同地区的地震特征进行了分析。     

西藏扎布耶湖ZK91-2钻孔沉积特征与气候环境演化

扎布耶盐湖位于西藏高原腹地,1991年在其南部干盐滩中钻取了20m深湖相沉积,以5～10cm/个的密度进行高分辨率取样,详细探讨了沉积标志、矿物组合（尤其Mg、Ca、Li碳酸盐）、干旱与潮湿两种气候类型的元素组合等气候环境指标,推导了晚更新世以来该湖区湖面涨缩、水质咸谈及气温高低变化。     

秦岭山脉对冷空气屏障的理论研究

利用二维大气中尺度数值模式，以１９７７年１月２０日－２２日的冷空气侵袭秦岭山区为例，从观测资料与数值计算两方面分析了由秦岭山脉的屏障作用而引起南北温差的主要原因。结果表明：这种屏障作用不仅体现在秦岭山脉对冷空气的阻挡作用上，而且还与秦岭南坡上的下坡风引起的绝热下沉增温有关。秦岭山脉对冷空气阻挡的动力原因除与秦岭山脉本身的拔海高度较高有关外，还与它的地形形状有关，尤其是位于秦岭北部的渭河河谷，它抑制冷空气入侵谷内，进而阻挡冷空气翻越秦岭山脉。     

数值模式初值的敏感性程度对四维同化的影响

用著名的Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统作了共轭变分同化的数值试验。发现随着模式对初值敏感性程度的增加，用这种方法得到和模式相协调的初始场愈来愈困难，直到某些情况下的完全失败。这表明四维同化和可预报期限是联系在一起的。另一方面，随着方程不精确程度的增加，变分同化的效果愈来愈差，直到所做的预报无任何意义可言。如果在做变分同化的同时对模式参数也进行反演，就可使得基于Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ系统所做的预报效果大大提高。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE FORMATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUMMER MONSOON

In this paper,we use a two-dimensional primary equation model which contains (1) heating ofradiation,(2) heating of condensation,and (3) transfers of sensible and latent heat between air andthe underlying surface.To investigate the causes for the formation of the eastern North Pacific sum-mer monsoon,the data at 110°W are obtained and winds at underlying surface and at 200 hPa aremodified under the conditions (1) removing topography and (2) changing meridional sea surface tem-perature (SST) gradient.In the numerical modification,we find that by removing the topography,the center's location ofthe eastern North Pacific summer monsoon does not change,but the intensity of the summer monsoonis weakened.Also the onset of the summer monsoon is delayed to the end of May.The tropical east-erly jet is weakened obviously,even changes to westerly wind.On the other hand,we find that theSST gradient along 110°W influences the eastern North Pacific summer monsoon distinctly.If theSST gradient is decreased,the center of the southwest wind near 12°N does not exist any more.theintensity of the whole summer monsoon becomes very weak and the circulation pattern of the summermonsoon also changes a lot.Finally,we indicate that both topography and meridional SST gradient play important roles inthe occurrence of the eastern North Pacific summer monsoon.The meridional SST gradient is themost important factor that triggers the summer monsoon and the topography along 110°W influencesthe intensity and the onset time of the summer monsoon there mostly.     

暴雨类冷涡与非暴雨类冷涡的合成对比分析

选择了８例典型的东北冷涡暴雨过程和８例典型的东北冷涡弱降水过程进行了合成对比分析，发现暴雨类冷涡其暴雨主要出现在冷涡的发展阶段，而非暴雨类冷涡的降水主要发生在冷涡的成熟阶段；暴雨类冷涡与其南侧的副热带低值系统联系密切，非暴雨类冷涡的这一特点不甚明显；暴雨类冷涡的两个降水中心分别出现在系统东侧偏南和南侧偏东一些的地，距系统中心大约３００－４００ｋｍ和７００－８００ｋｍ，这些区域处于低层辐合、高层辐菜     

数字卫星云图估算面雨量的应用试验

使用云分类降水率估计的方法，有静止气象卫星数字云图进行面雨量估算。对１９９３年８月４日华北南部一次降水过程的实测雨量与估算结果的对比分析表明，这种估算方法对雨区的差别有相当高的精度，对雨量的估计有一定的参考价值。