太湖和大浦河口风成流、风涌水的数值模拟及其单站验证

介绍了太湖风成流和风涌水的数值摸拟工作。使用两种不同水平分辨率的数值模式,利用中日合作研究组在大浦河口实测的水位、湖流和风的资料对模拟结果进行了验证。结果指出,模式对风涌水及流向有较好的预报能力,流速的预报尚待进一步改进。     

湖泊环境研究的数据质量保证——以巢湖为例

本文以“巢湖富营养化研究”为例, 阐述了湖泊环境科学研究工作中监测数据质量保证工作的程序与技水要点。     

同位素地球化学在地震监测预测研究中的应用进展

随着新观测技术和理论的进一步发展,同位素地球化学方法在地震监测预测研究中发挥了越来越重要的作用。通过同位素地球化学方法确定地下流体来源,研究地下流体循环特征,分析地震前兆异常的成因,评估地质构造活动的程度,开展地震预测研究。同位素示踪技术还可以结合深源流体监测和地球物理方法,揭示地震孕育、流体与震源之间的关系。此外,同位素地球化学还可以构建断裂带流体地球化学背景特征,用于地震监测点映震效能的评估,提高地震监测预测的准确性,为地震新监测点的布设和震情跟踪提供技术支撑。通过对现今同位素在地震监测预测中所使用的方法、技术及国内外应用情况的总结分析,力图全面认识同位素地球化学在地震监测预测应用中的现状及发展趋势。     

An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.     

形变单位在地震文献中的正确使用

针对地震观测技术论文中有关形变单位"毫秒",即10~(-3″)混用为时间单位ms的情况,笔者从单位符号的意义及观测技术仪器的工作原理出发,最终明确,地震观测仪器中倾斜仪观测量单位应为10~(-3″),不能以时间单位ms代替,二者不能混为一谈。     

甘肃省地震局高性能计算系统

高性能计算是现代科学研究、工程技术开发和大规模数据处理的关键支撑技术,在地震系统发挥着日益重要的作用。甘肃省地震局高性能计算集群系统由60个节点、采用40 GB InfiniBand网络互连组成,峰值计算速度达9.2万亿次/秒。作为地震系统重要的科技服务平台之一,为地震反演、数据分析、数值模拟等领域以及科研创新平台提供高性能计算环境。     

Multi-models for SPI drought forecasting in the north of Haihe River Basin,China

Drought is one of the most devastating climate disasters. Hence, drought forecasting plays an important role in mitigating some of the adverse effects of drought. Data-driven models are widely used for drought forecasting such as ARIMA model, artificial neural network (ANN) model, wavelet neural network (WANN) model, support vector regression model, grey model and so on. Three data-driven models (ARIMA model; ANN model; WANN model) are used in this study for drought forecasting based on standard precipitation index of two time scales (SPI; SPI-6 and SPI-12). The optimal data-driven model and time scale of SPI are then selected for effective drought forecasting in the North of Haihe River Basin. The effectiveness of the three data-models is compared by Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test, Kendall rank correlation, and the correlation coefficients (R²). The forecast results shows that the WANN model is more suitable and effective for forecasting SPI-6 and SPI-12 values in the north of Haihe River Basin.     

宾川地区的地壳厚度和泊松比分布特征研究

This paper presents the changes of crust thickness and Poissons ratios distribution in the Binchuan region,where the first air-gun transmitting station and its a small dense array were deployed.From September 2011 to January 2014,more than 239 teleseismic events of M≥6.0 were recorded in 16 stations in the Binchuan region.Their P-wave receiver functions were analyzed respectively.The high spatial resolution result shows that the average crust thickness of Binchuan region is 45.3km,it follows the rule of"deeper in the north and east part,shallower in the south and west part."The deepest region is in Xiaoyindian Station;the crust thickness is 47.9km;the shallowest region is in Paiying Station,it has the thickness of 42.1km.It shows that the deeper Moho surface nearby the Chenghai fault and shallower nearby the Honghe fault;the isoline distribution of thickness changes greatly nearby the Chenghai fault and slowly nearby the Honghe fault.From the distribution of Poissons ratios,it is unevenly in the study area with a great difference from the north part to the south part,which shows a characteristic of"lower in the north,higher in the south".The Poissons ratio nearby the Honghe fault is medium too high(0.26≤σ≤0.29);lower nearby the Chenghai fault(σ≤0.26).This paper concludes the possible reason of different characteristic between Poissons ratio and crust thickness is thicker in the upper crust in the Binchuan region.     

The Co-seismic Response of Underground Fluid in Yunnan to the Nepal MS8.1 Earthquake

In this paper, statistics are taken on the co-seismic response of underground fluid in Yunnan to the Nepal M_S8.1 earthquake, and the co-seismic response characteristics of the water level and water temperature are analyzed and summarized with the digital data. The results show that the Nepal M_S8.1 earthquake had greater impact on the Yunnan region, and the macro and micro dynamics of fluids showed significant co-seismic response. The earthquake recording capacity of water level and temperature measurement is significantly higher than that of water radon and water quality to this large earthquake; the maximum amplitude and duration of co-seismic response of water level and water temperature vary greatly in different wells. The changing forms are dominated by fluctuation and step rise in water level, and a rising or falling restoration in water temperature. From the records of the main shock and the maximum strong aftershock,we can see that the greater magnitude of earthquake, the higher ratio of the occurrence of co-seismic response, and in the same well, the larger the response amplitude, as well as the longer the duration. The amplitude and duration of co-seismic response recorded by different instruments in a same well are different.Water temperature co-seismic response almost occurred in wells with water level response, indicating that the well water level and water temperature are closely related in co-seismic response, and the well water temperature seismic response was caused mainly by well water level seismic response.     

新疆天山地区的波速比异常分析

Based on the seismic observation report data provided by the Xinjiang Digital Seismic Network from 2009 to 2014,we calculate the wave velocity ratio and its background value for medium and small earthquakes by using the multi-station method in Tianshan,Xinjiang.This paper analyzes the variation of the wave velocity ratio disturbance value to highlight the abnormal,and also back-traces 7 moderate earthquakes at the research area.The results show that:(1)the background value of the wave velocity ratio is almost 1.70,the wave velocity ratio obviously decreases in the middle-eastern part of Tianshan and the region near the Puchang fault;(2)the wave velocity ratio disturbance value is mostly low in the epicenter before four earthquakes of M≥5.0 from 2011 to 2013 in the study area;(3)before 7 moderate strong earthquakes,the earthquake events with low value of the wave velocity ratio account for over 60% of corresponding total events near the epicenters,and the low value of the wave velocity ratio is relatively obvious before moderate earthquakes.