莱州湾温带风暴潮预报研究

本文依据莱州湾羊角沟、夏营两站建国以来的风暴增水资料，对莱州湾建国后发生的风暴潮进行了统计分析，并探讨了温带风暴潮产生的物理机制，此外还对莱州湾温带风暴增水以及诱发增水的天气形势进行了分析分类。在此基础上建立了莱州湾温带风暴潮统计预报方法，并在作业预报中对模型进行了检验，取得较为理想的效果。     

Argo-认识和预测气候变化的全球海洋观测计划

1　全球海洋观测网 (Argo)为了解全球气候的变化 ,海洋学界正在做一项雄心勃勃的事业 ,即设计并部署一个全球海洋观测系统 ,以便对海洋从季节到十年间的变化作前所未有的长期跟踪观测。这项计划的实施 ,将使人类对气候的认识和预测向前迈出一大步。全球海洋观测系统的现场支柱就是 Argo剖面浮标网 ,将为人类提供一个全球海洋次表层数据库。Argo剖面浮标观测网将由 3 0 0 0个自动仪器组成 (图 1 ) ,每个浮标每隔 1 0天发送一组取自 2 0 0 0 m到海面的温度和盐度剖面资料 (图 2、3 )。在全球大洋内每隔大约 3个经纬度布设一个浮标 ,其数据通…     

浙江岱衢洋大黄鱼 Pseudosciaena crocea (Richardson) 个体生殖力的研究

种群的补充、生长和死亡是决定种群数量及其变动类型的三个相互联系过程。要阐明种群补充过程的基本理律,就必须对它的各个环节加以深入的研究。生殖力的变动及其调节规律就是补充过程的最主要环节之一。 从1958年秋季开始,我们进行了大黄鱼生殖力种内规律的研究。本文是其中的一个组成部分,在于研究浙江舟山渔场岱衢洋产卵场的春宗与秋宗大黄鱼的个体生植力变动规律,着重阐明一个种群内个体生殖力的变动与调节规律及其影响因子,探讨同一地理种群的不同生物学宗个体生殖力变动规律的差异及其适应意义o 春宗大黄鱼共观察分析了304尾;秋宗大黄鱼由于取样不易,仅观察分析了41尾。所据以观察分析的资料均系未出现透明和游离状卵子的典型IV期卵巢。卵子的计数是采用重量取样法,取样重为0.2-0.3克。卵巢采用5%福尔马林液固定保存,称重前几天移入80%酒精中,这样可以减少因水分重量所产生的误差。取样时先除去卵巢外膜井取卵巢中部卵子作为计数样品。凡是开始累积卵黄颗粒的小型卵子到半充满与完全充满卵黄的中型及大型卵子都进行计算,卵径范围为0.16一0.99毫米。     

南黄海海域的海相地层含油气系统

南黄海海域油气勘探近40年成果证实,南黄海盆地与相邻的苏北盆地具有相似的发育历史。目前,苏北已在中、古生界近50口钻井中见到油气显示,其中在下三叠统青龙组和上石炭统船山组发现了大量油气显示,在盐城朱家墩发现源于中、古生界的再生气田,在黄桥镇苏174井志留系坟头组以及泥盆系五通组砂岩中钻遇液态CO2及轻质油,证明下扬子中、古生界存在油气生成和运聚的成藏过程,具有良好的油气勘探前景。     

Seasonality and interannual variability of freshwater inflow to a large oligohaline estuary in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Quantity, timing, duration, and fluctuation of freshwater inflow are important factors affecting the development and health of aquatic and adjacent wetland ecosystems in coastal estuaries. This study assessed six decades of freshwater inflow from the Amite River, Tickfaw River, and Tangipahoa River watersheds to Lake Pontchartrain, a large oligohaline estuary in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, whose flood waters caused recent damage to the city of New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. By utilizing the long-term (1940–2002) river discharge and climatic data from the three major tributary watersheds, monthly and annual freshwater inflows have been quantified and their spatial and temporal variations have been analyzed. On average, the three rivers discharged (±standard error) 0.27 ± 0.04 km³ freshwater monthly and 3.29 ± 0.15 km³ freshwater annually into the lake estuarine system, with the highest inflow from the Amite River (0.16 ± 0.03 m³ mon⁻¹, and 1.91 ± 0.09 km³ yr⁻¹) and the lowest inflow from the Tickfaw River (0.03 ± 0.00 km³ mon⁻¹, and 0.34 ± 0.02 km³ yr⁻¹). A distinct seasonality was evident with over 69% of the total annual inflow occurring during December and May (wet months) and with a low flow period from August to November (dry months). The monthly inflow during the wet months was positively correlated with the monthly precipitation (r² = 0.64), while the monthly inflow during the dry months was subject to evapotranspiration. Furthermore, the study found a 20-year low flow period from 1954–1973 (2.76 ± 0.24 km³ yr⁻¹) and a 24-year high flow period from 1975–1998 (3.84 ± 0.24 km³ yr⁻¹), coinciding with both the climate variation and population growth in the watersheds.     

天然感潮河道水流紊动特性分析

采用多谱勒三相流速仪，在长江口徐六泾水文观测断面分别进行了涨潮、落潮时中泓与近岸垂线的流速观测，根据这些观测资料，对天然感潮河段潮流紊动的周期、频率、概率密度函数等进行了定量的数学描述，并对时均流速、紊动强度、雷诺应力等沿垂线分布进行了分析计算。     

装载GPCTD传感器的海翼水下滑翔机观测数据实时质量控制

Profiles observed by Sea-Wing underwater gliders are widely applied in scientific research. However, the quality control(QC) of these data has received little attention. The mismatch between the temperature probe and conductivity cell response times generates erroneous salinities, especially across a strong thermocline. A sensor drift may occur owing to biofouling and biocide leakage into the conductivity cell when a glider has operated for several months. It is therefore critical to design a mature real-time QC procedure and develop a toolbox for the QC of Sea-Wing glider data. On the basis of temperature and salinity profiles observed by several Sea-Wing gliders each installed with a Sea-Bird Glider Payload CTD sensor, a real-time QC method including a thermal lag correction, Argo-equivalent real-time QC tests, and a simple post-processing procedure is proposed. The method can also be adopted for Petrel gliders.     

一种基于BP算法学习的小波神经网络

为发展 Szu的基于信号表示的小波神经网络 ,提出一种多输入多输出的小波网络模型 ,网络隐层采用框架小波函数、输出层采用 Sigmoid激励函数 ,并选用“熵误差函数”以加速网络的学习速度。奇偶判别和混沌时间序列预测例子的实验结果表明了它具有良好的函数逼近能力和推广能力 ,收敛速度和均方误差均优于相同结构的多层感知器模型。     

现场海域水平扩散系数的探讨 Ⅱ．黄河三角洲埕北海域的计算

根据Ｔａｙｌｏｒ的湍流扩散理论和Ｈａｙ、Ｐａｓｑｕｉｌｌ提出的拉格朗日流和欧拉流的相关函数的相似性，用黄河三角洲埕北海域的实测资料，按四种不同方案计算出该海域的水平扩散系数和谱密度分布。指出：该海区潮流扩散系数主要受潮流的影响，其分布特征与潮流的分布基本一致，所求的水平扩散系数主要是由周期性的潮运动给予潮流扰动所致。方案４是通过富氏变换滤波消去了周期性潮流扰动，本方案计算的水平扩散系数是由周期为６ｈ以下的小尺度涡提供能量。     

黄海、渤海底层温度数值预报方法的研究

根据文献［ｌ］建立的底层温度（ＴＨ）与其水柱垂向平均温度（）的经验关系，结合流体动力学方程和（垂向平均）热传导方程，发展了以水气温差和风速为已知量的底层温度二维数值预报模式。该模式避开了海面热量和动量输入在垂直水柱中分配的复杂物理过程而直接报出底层水温场，具有较好的实用性；此外，从试报结果看，效果令人满意。