Contemporary crustal deformation of the Chinese continent and tectonic block model

We obtain the preliminary result of crustal deformation velocity field for the Chinese continent by analyzing GPS data from the Crustal Motion Observation Network of China (CMONOC), particularly the data from the regional networks of CMONOC observed in 1999 and 2001. We delineate 9 technically active blocks and 2 broadly distributed deformation zones out of a dense GPS velocity field, and derive block motion Euler poles for the blocks and their relative motion rates. Our result reveals that there are 3 categories of deformation patterns in the Chinese continent. The first category, associated with the interior of the Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan orogenic belt, shows broadly distributed deformation within the regions. The third category, associated with the Tarim Basin and the region east of the north-south seismic belt of China, shows block-like motion, with deformation accommodated along the block boundaries only. The second category, mainly associated with the borderland of the Tibetan Plateau, such as the Qaidam, Qilian, Xining (in eastern Qinghai), and the Diamond-shaped (in western Sichuan and Yunnan) blocks, has the deformation pattern between the first and the third, i.e. these regions appear to deform block-like, but with smaller sizes and less strength for the blocks. Based on the analysis of the lithospheric structures and the deformation patterns of the regions above, we come to the inference that the deformation modes of the Chinese continental crust are mainly controlled by the crustal structure. The crust of the eastern China and the Tarim Basin is mechanically strong, and its deformation takes the form of relative motion between rigid blocks. On the other hand, the northward indentation of the Indian plate into the Asia continent has created the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains, thickened their crust, and raised the temperature in the crust. The lower crust thus has become ductile, evidenced in low seismic velocity and high electric conductivity observed. The brittle part of the crust, driven by the visco-plastic flow of the lower crust, deforms extensively at all scales. The regions of the second category located at the borderland of the Tibetan Plateau are at the transition zone between the regions of the first and the third categories in terms of the crustal structure. Driven by the lateral boundary forces, their deformation style is also between the two, in the form of block motion and deformation with smaller blocks and less internal strength.     

Climate change in the 21st century simulated by HadGEM2-AO under representative concentration pathways

We present climate responses of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model HadGEM2-AO for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). The RCPs are selected as standard scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report and these scenarios include time paths for emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gas and aerosols and land-use/land cover. The global average warming and precipitation increases for the last 20 years of the 21st century relative to the period 1986-2005 are +1.1°C/+2.1% for RCP2.6, +2.4°C/+4.0% for RCP4.5, +2.5°C/+3.3% for RCP6.0 and +4.1°C/+4.6% for RCP8.5, respectively. The climate response on RCP 2.6 scenario meets the UN Copenhagen Accord to limit global warming within two degrees at the end of 21st century, the mitigation effect is about 3°C between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. The projected precipitation changes over the 21st century are expected to increase in tropical regions and at high latitudes, and decrease in subtropical regions associated with projected poleward expansions of the Hadley cell. Total soil moisture change is projected to decrease in northern hemisphere high latitudes and increase in central Africa and Asia whereas near-surface soil moisture tends to decrease in most areas according to the warming and evaporation increase. The trend and magnitude of future climate extremes are also projected to increase in proportion to radiative forcing of RCPs. For RCP 8.5, at the end of the summer season the Arctic is projected to be free of sea ice.     

运用人工神经网络作汛期降水预报

本文提出汛期降水预报的人工神经网络方法，并选择一组标样进行了具体分析，预报成功率达100％，结果表明，该方法性能良好，可望成为汛期降水预报的有效手段。     

南海海岛自动气象站防护应用技术探索

立足海南及南海的自然条件,结合海岛自动气象站在南海高温、高湿、高盐雾、强辐射、强风等恶劣气候环境下使用情况,通过对历年来海岛自动气象站故障及失效模式的统计和分析,总结分析故障原因。根据设备维护人员多年气象设备保障工作积累总结的经验,从海岛自动气象站结构和防护要求出发,集成应用市场上优质材料、先进工艺和多种成熟、关键设备防护技术,形成一些气象设备防护的有效方法措施,以提高海岛自动气象站对海洋环境的适应性和性能,延长设备使用寿命。     

基于GIS的雷电数据可视化地图组件设计与实现

雷电发生发展于地理空间,具有明显的时空特性,因此在地理信息平台的支持下进行各种雷电数据空间及其属性特征分析具有重要的意义。在ArcEngine的基础上,设计研发了雷电数据可视化地图组件（Thunder Map）,按照数据定义层、数据功能层以及地图UI层的3层逻辑结构,实现了各种雷电相关数据基于地理信息平台的可视化表达,并提供了相关数据管理与功能分析的操作接口,为基于地理空间信息的雷电数据处理提供可视化的功能组件支持。     

2005年6月桂南沿海降水异常偏多成因分析

2005年6月桂南沿海降水异常偏多,通过分析气候背景,环流形势特征,并将其与历史多雨年和少雨年做对比分析得出:2005年6月桂南沿海降水偏多是在多雨的大气候变化周期中发生的;西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、西伸脊点位置偏西、脊线位置偏南是2005年6月桂南沿海降水异常偏多的主要原因.     

基于问题探究式学习开展初中跨学科教学的研究——以九年级"小龙虾的'逆袭'"为例

在新一轮课改的指引下,如何将不同学科知识体系融合在真实情境中,引导学生解决具体问题,以培养学生跨学科的学习意识和分析能力,成为教学实践者普遍关心的问题。本文对基于问题探究式的初中跨学科教学的背景、意义与教学模式展开研究,并以九年级“小龙虾的‘逆袭’”为例,进行了基于问题探究式学习的课堂教学设计。     

含矿预测的人工神经网络方法

运用神经网络模型的一典型模型——“反向传播”模型的改进形式,处理矿产资源统计预测问题,得出与数量化理论Ⅱ处理极为相似的结果.     

广清高速公路改扩建工程岩溶塌陷主要影响因素分析

岩溶塌陷对工程建设的影响不容小视。为了研究广清高速公路改扩建工程中影响岩溶塌陷的两个主要因素冲击荷载作用和地下水下降对塌陷的影响程度,在资料收集和现场调研的基础上,统计工程区12处岩溶塌陷的基本情况,总结塌陷特征并分析影响塌陷的主要因素,建立与实际覆盖层结构相符的塌陷地质模型-砂土+粉质黏土+灰岩地质模型。根据极限平衡理论,分别在冲击荷载和水位下降两种力学作用下对塌陷地质模型进行稳定性计算。通过计算得出,最大冲击荷载的作用在一定程度上会影响覆盖层的稳定性,但不是导致地面塌陷的主要因素,而地下水位下降对工程区岩溶塌陷起到了决定性的作用。通过进一步分析水位下降对塌陷的影响程度,确定水位降幅4m为警戒值, 6m为危险值,为保证施工的安全性提供一定的理论依据。     

湖南桂阳柳塘岭铅锌矿成矿地质特征

柳塘岭铅锌矿是在锰矿开采的基础上发现的、深埋于地下隐伏矿床,位于南岭纬向构造带东段北缘与耒阳—临武经向构造带中段之复合部位的复式向斜中,铅锌矿体产于石炭系上统(C₁s)的不整合面之上,受石炭系上统浅变质细碎屑岩与碳酸盐岩控制,具有典型的喷流沉积型特征。