Profiles of Fecal Porphyrins in River Otters Following the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

Median levels of Coproporphyrin III (Copro III) in fecal samples of river otters (Lontra canadensis) collected from an oiled area in Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA, during 1990 were significantly higher than in samples collected from the same oiled area during 1996 (p=0.011, one way analysis of variance), a nonoiled reference area in Prince William Sound during 1996 (p=0.002) and a reference area in southeast Alaska during 1998 (p=0.004). An overall test of significance that combined probabilities from the statistical analysis of this porphyrin study with those from other biomarker studies revealed a significant difference in physiological response of river otters between oiled and nonoiled areas of the Sound for 1990 (p < 0.01). We demonstrated that changes in levels of fecal porphyrins may serve as a biomarker that may contribute to a health assessment of wild river otters.     

Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.     

Evapotranspiration from the margin and moist playa of a closed desert valley

Two long term microclimate measurement stations with Bowen ratio capability have been used to study water cycling in a closed desert basin. Microclimate variables including the temperature and vapor pressure gradients were monitored continuously and were used to estimate the Bowen ratio, sensible and latent heat fluxes during 1986 and 1987. Despite having a water table that varied between the surface and 30 cm below the surface, the playa had little evaporation except after rainfall events. The very high osmotic pressure of the soil and salt crust caused most of the absorbed radiation to be partitioned to sensible heat. In contrast, along the margin the thin grass and brush cover transpired water freely, with the latent heat flux exceeding 60% of available energy for much of the season. The higher air temperatures above the playa raised potential evapotranspiration (ET) significantly higher than along the margin throughout the summer. The annual average actual ET of the playa was only 36% of the margin. During the drier summer period (May–October), this ratio decreased to < 28%. Immediately after a rainfall event, evaporation rates of the two sites were similar, but the playa rate was quickly reduced as the osmotic potential increased. During this study, the playa lost < 229 mm of subsurface water to evaporation annually, while > 638 mm were lost from the margin groundwater supply.

The 24-h solar and net radiation correlations were 0.80 and 0.94 for the playa and margin, respectively. The lower correlation for the playa resulted from the wide variation of albedo with surface moisture changes. The annual average albedo values for the playa and margin were 0.64 and 0.46, respectively.     

Late Holocene Environmental Reconstructions from Lake Solai,Kenya

Playa lake systems tend to be overlooked archives of paleoenvironmental change due to the likelihood of a short and intermittent record of deposition. Groundwater-fed wetlands associated with these climate-sensitive playas, however, preserve changes in hydrologic budget and are thus valuable archives for semiarid regions. This study examines the paleoecological record of a groundwater-fed wetland from Lake Solai, Kenya. Biological proxies are used to reconstruct paleoenvironmental change and climate impacts over the past millennium. Dry conditions persisted between CE 1115 and 1490, followed by wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age. Near surface sediments indicate increasing anthropogenic impact through pastoralism.     

The Formation of MgI 4571 Å in the solar atmosphere

The two-dimensional equation of transfer is solved for the case of locally-controlled source function (LTE) and radiationally-controlled ionization. Horizontal fluctuations in electron temperature and macroscopic velocity fields are superposed on the basic one-dimensional model (cf. Altrock and Cannon, 1972). Output intensities are compared with observed rms intensity fluctuations and spatially-averaged intensities in Mg i 4571 Å. We find that at least one model (with a height-independent temperature fluctuation T/T=±0.02 in the range 0h450 km) can predict the magnitude of the intensity fluctuations in both the continuum and 4571 Å. The asymmetry of the line can be explained by adding a height-independent, temperature-correlated flow of amplitude 1 to 2 km s^–1. The relationship between these results and other multi-dimensional analyses is discussed.On leave from Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.     

Wind effects on sub-tidal currents in Puget Sound

Wind effects on sub-tidal currents are studied using current meter records obtained at six moorings across the main basin of Puget Sound. High correlations between wind speeds and currents are found near the surface and at mid-depths of about 100 m. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis applied to the axial currents in 1984 and 1985 shows that mode 1, containing over 60% of the variance, is highly correlated with wind speed even without any near surface current records. When near surface stratification is strong, direct wind effects are limited to the upper 30 m with counter currents in the lower layer indicating a baroclinic response. The transport in the lower layer almost balances the transport in the upper layer. When near surface stratification is weak, direct wind effects on currents can be detected to about 100 m. In this case, there is no clear and consistent depth at which one can separate the upper from the lower layer. Time series show that the acceleration in the surface layer initially increases in the same direction as the wind when the wind starts blowing, but it reaches a maximum, starts decreasing, and eventually changes to the opposite direction (decelerates) while the wind continues to blow in one direction. Results of a continuously stratified normal mode model and estimations from the observations suggest that friction at solid boundaries is a major cause of these phenomena. The model shows that modal currents of normal modes 2 and 3 are as important as mode 1, although the resultant vertical structure of total current shows a two-layer type pattern with only one zero crossing. The effect of the baroclinic pressure gradient is only apparent at low frequencies and among lower modes.     

The evolution and orientation of early cycle 22 active regions

The evolution of six major active regions which appeared during the first phase of the present solar cycle (cycle 22) has been studied. It was found that the northern hemisphere regions exhibited a broad range of evolutionary behavior in which the commonly accepted normal pattern (whereby the follower flux moves preferentially polewards ahead of the leader flux) is represented only at one end of the range. At the other end of the range, the leader flux is displaced polewards of the follower flux. In the latter cases equatorward extensions of the polar coronal hole are noted.While it is emphasized that some of the regions in this study follow the more conventional pattern and that all regions in this study emerged during the early phase of cycle 22, the implications for theories of the solar polar field reversals are noted.     

Morphological variation of Stephanodiscus niagarae Ehrenb. (Bacillariophyta) in a Lake Ontario sediment core

Stephanodiscus niagarae populations in a core from Lake Ontario show systematic variation in radial puncta number and mean valve diameter. Puncta number is stable in specimens from samples deposited between 1720 and 1844. Puncta number gradually increases in samples deposited between 1860 and 1947, then increases rapidly to high numbers in samples deposited after 1964. Mean valve diameter is relatively high in specimens from samples deposited between 1720 and 1959. Diameter of specimens deposited during this period fluctuates around a mean of 63.2 m. Mean diameter of specimens deposited from 1959 to 1980 is only 42.5 m. We conclude that the trend in puncta number reflects the time course of eutrophication in Lake Ontario. We interpret the precipitous decline in mean diameter as an indication that conditions in the lake after the late 1950's did not permit sexual reproduction in this species.