A flexible nonlinear modelling framework for nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis in hydroclimatology

Parameters in a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution are specified as a function of covariates using a conditional density network (CDN), which is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. If the covariate is time or is dependent on time, then the GEV‐CDN model can be used to perform nonlinear, nonstationary GEV analysis of hydrological or climatological time series. Owing to the flexibility of the neural network architecture, the model is capable of representing a wide range of nonstationary relationships. Model parameters are estimated by generalized maximum likelihood, an approach that is tailored to the estimation of GEV parameters from geophysical time series. Model complexity is identified using the Bayesian information criterion and the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. Monte Carlo simulations are used to validate GEV‐CDN performance on four simple synthetic problems. The model is then demonstrated on precipitation data from southern California, a series that exhibits nonstationarity due to interannual/interdecadal climatic variability. Copyright © 2009 Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vulnerability,resilience and development discourses in context of climate change

The paper discusses how the current climate change debate influences the way in which development is conceptualised, negotiated and implemented. The objective of the article is to explore some of the underlying controversies that characterise development discourses in the context of climate change. Adaptation to climate change goes along with a significant shift in discourses used to deal with what is normally called development. This is reflected in shifting research interests and perspectives, from vulnerability studies to resilience thinking. However, the paper argues, this shift is problematic for the normative contents of development and especially for a pro-poor and grass roots perspective.     

Magnetic fields,bremsstrahlung and synchrotron emission in the flare of 24 October 1969

An impulsive flare October 24, 1969 produced two bursts with virtually identical time profiles of 8800 MHz emission and X-rays above 48 keV. The two spikes of hard X-rays correspond in time to the times of sharp brightening and expansion in the H flare. The first burst was not observed at frequencies below 3000 MHz. This cut off is ascribed to plasma cutoff above the low-lying flare.A model of the flare based on H observations at Big Bear shows that the density of electrons with energy above 10 keV is 5 × 10⁷ if the field density is 10¹¹. The observed radio flux would be produced by this electron distribution with the observed field of 200 G. The H emission accompanying the hard electron acceleration is presumed due to excitation of the field atoms by the hard electrons.     

The classical analysis of the response of a long baseline radio interferometer

summary . A general derivation of the classical response of a long baseline interferometer is presented including the effects of finite bandwidth of the receiver systems, instrumental delays and phase shifts, instabilities in the separate local oscillators, as well as the effects of the retarded baseline. The general theory is then applied to a pair of antennae attached to the Earth and discussed in the light of a number of geophysical phenomena including the effects of precession, nutation, rotation, polar motion, annual aberration and Earth tides.     

Radio sources in the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey – II. Local radio luminosity functions for AGN and star-forming galaxies at 1.4 GHz

We have cross-matched the 1.4-GHz NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) with the first 210 fields observed in the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS), covering an effective area of 325 deg² (about 20 per cent of the final 2dFGRS area). This yields a set of optical spectra of 912 candidate NVSS counterparts, of which we identify 757 as genuine radio identifications – the largest and most homogeneous set of radio source spectra ever obtained. The 2dFGRS radio sources span the redshift range     to 0.438, and are a mixture of active galaxies (60 per cent) and star-forming galaxies (40 per cent). About 25 per cent of the 2dFGRS radio sources are spatially resolved by NVSS, and the sample includes three giant radio galaxies with projected linear size greater than 1 Mpc. The high quality of the 2dF spectra means we can usually distinguish unambiguously between AGN and star-forming galaxies. We make a new determination of the local radio luminosity function at 1.4 GHz for both active and star-forming galaxies, and derive a local star formation density of         .     

Submillimeter observations from space: A space station submillimeter facility (SSSF)

There are many important scientific problems to be attacked in the submillimeter wavelength region including the astrophysics of star formation, the dynamics of protoplanetary systems, the physics of interstellar gas, mass loss from stars, supernovae, the chemical evolution of galaxies, the star formation rates in galaxies, the astrophysics of active galactic nuclei, the deuterium abundance in different astrophysical environments, and the distribution of the cosmic background radiation. However, to effectively explore this wavelength range requires going into space since atmospheric absorption precludes most observations from the ground. As in most areas of astronomy, the twin needs for sensitivity and high redsolution indicate use of an imaging interferometer, but the needed baselines of a few tens-of-meters require a large physical structure. The planned Space Station will provide, for the first time, a platform which is large enough to accommodate a forefront submillimeter synthesis instrument. Such a telescope would open an entirely new wavelength regime to astronomy with the attendant possibilities for unexpected new discoveries.A submillimeter array would also be technically well suited for operation on the Space Station. Second-of-are resolution at submillimeter wavelengths requires only relatively short baselines; pointing accuracy and tracking stability requirements are relatively crude being determined by the single dish size rather than the array resolution; radio frequency interference (RFI) susceptibility is very low due to the large frequency separation from normal communications bands; emissions from co-orbiting debris, dust, gas, and water vapour are uncorrelated between interferometer elements; baseline stability requirements, while severe, are less stringent than for optical/IR interferometers and can almost certainly be satisfied for existing phase correction and phaseless image restoration techniques; and the technology for the dishes, mounts, receivers, LO/IF systems, and correlators either exists or is a reasonable extrapolation of what already is available on the ground.We consider the applications and possible design of a Space Station based submillimeter array which could be mounted along the main (Y) axis of the Space Station and use orbital revolution and precession to produce high-resolution synthesis mapping in much the same way ground-based linear arrays do by Earth rotation synthesis.     

A small contribution to the giant problem

We present a simple analytic model of a composite polytropic star, which exhibits a limiting Scho¨nberg–Chandrasekhar core mass fraction strongly analogous to the classic numerical result for an isothermal core, a radiative envelope and a μ-jump (i.e. a molecular weight jump) at the interface. Our model consists of an n _c = 5 core, an n _e = 1 envelope and a μ-jump by a factor ≥ 3; the core mass fraction cannot exceed 2/π. We use the classic U V plane to show that composite models will exhibit a Scho¨nberg–Chandrasekhar limit only if the core is 'soft', i.e. has n _c ≥ 5, and the envelope is 'hard', i.e. has n _e < 5; in the critical case ( n _c = 5), the limit only exists if the μ-jump is sufficiently large, ≥ 6/( n _e + 1).     

Fire-related hyperconcentrated and debris flows on Storm King Mountain, Glenwood Springs, Colorado, USA

 The South Canyon Fire of July 1994 burned 800 ha of vegetation on Storm King Mountain near Glenwood Springs, Colorado, USA. On the night of 1 September 1994, in response to torrential rains, debris flows inundated seven areas along a 5-km length of Interstate Highway 70. Mapping from aerial photographs, along with field observations and measurements, shows that the September rainstorm eroded unconsolidated, burned surficial soil from the hillsides, flushed dry-ravel deposits from the tributary channels, and transported loose, large material from the main channels. The hyperconcentrated flows and debris flows inundated 14 ha of Interstate Highway 70 with 70 000 m³ of material. Although the burned area was seeded in November 1994, the potential for continuing debris-flow activity remains. Incision and entrainment of channel alluvium, as well as erosion of loose material from the hillslopes could result in future debris- and hyperconcentrated-flow activity. Received: 15 October 1996 / Accepted: 25 June 1997