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911.
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913.
914.
Through an Australia-China climate change bilateral project, we analyzed results of 51-year global offline simulations over China using the Australian community atmosphere biosphere land exchange (CABLE) model, focusing on integrated studies of its surface energy, water and carbon cycle at seasonal, interannual and longer time-scales. In addition to the similar features in surface climatology between the CABLE simulation and those derived from the global land-surface data assimilation system, comparison of surface fluxes at a CEOP reference site in northeast China also suggested that the seasonal cycles of surface evaporation and CO2 flux are reasonably simulated by the model. We further assessed temporal variations of model soil moisture with the observed variations at a number of locations in China. Observations show a soil moisture recharge–discharge mechanism on a seasonal time scale in central-east China, with soil moisture being recharged during its summer wet season, retained in its winter due to low evaporation demand, and depleted during early spring when the land warms up. Such a seasonal cycle is shown at both 50- and 100-cm soil depths in observations while the model only shows a similar feature in its lower soil layers with its upper layer soil moisture varying tightly with rainfall seasonal cycle. In the analysis of the model carbon cycle, the net primary productivity (NPP) has similar spatial patterns as the ones derived from an ecosystem model with remote sensing. The simulated interannual variations of NPP by CABLE are consistent with the results derived from remote sensing-based and process-based studies over the period of 1981–2000. Nevertheless an upward trend from observations is not presented in the model results. The model shows a downward trend primarily due to the constant CO2 concentration used in the experiment and a large increase of autotrophic respiration caused by an upward trend in surface temperature forcing data. Furthermore, we have compared river discharge data from the model experiments with observations in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins in China. In the Yangtze River basin, while the observed interannual variability is reasonably captured, the model significantly underestimates its river discharge, which is consist with its overestimation of evaporation in the region. In the Yellow River basin, the magnitudes of the river discharge is similar between modeled and observed but its variations are less skillfully captured as seen in the Yangtze River region. 相似文献
915.
X-C Zhang 《Climatic change》2007,84(3-4):337-363
Spatial downscaling of climate change scenarios can be a significant source of uncertainty in simulating climatic impacts
on soil erosion, hydrology, and crop production. The objective of this study is to compare responses of simulated soil erosion,
surface hydrology, and wheat and maize yields to two (implicit and explicit) spatial downscaling methods used to downscale
the A2a, B2a, and GGa1 climate change scenarios projected by the Hadley Centre’s global climate model (HadCM3). The explicit
method, in contrast to the implicit method, explicitly considers spatial differences of climate scenarios and variability
during downscaling. Monthly projections of precipitation and temperature during 1950–2039 were used in the implicit and explicit
spatial downscaling. A stochastic weather generator (CLIGEN) was then used to disaggregate monthly values to daily weather
series following the spatial downscaling. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was run for a wheat–wheat–maize
rotation under conventional tillage at the 8.7 and 17.6% slopes in southern Loess Plateau of China. Both explicit and implicit
methods projected general increases in annual precipitation and temperature during 2010–2039 at the Changwu station. However,
relative climate changes downscaled by the explicit method, as compared to the implicit method, appeared more dynamic or variable.
Consequently, the responses to climate change, simulated with the explicit method, seemed more dynamic and sensitive. For
a 1% increase in precipitation, percent increases in average annual runoff (soil loss) were 3–6 (4–10) times greater with
the explicit method than those with the implicit method. Differences in grain yield were also found between the two methods.
These contrasting results between the two methods indicate that spatial downscaling of climate change scenarios can be a significant
source of uncertainty, and further underscore the importance of proper spatial treatments of climate change scenarios, and
especially climate variability, prior to impact simulation. The implicit method, which applies aggregated climate changes
at the GCM grid scale directly to a target station, is more appropriate for simulating a first-order regional response of
nature resources to climate change. But for the site-specific impact assessments, especially for entities that are heavily
influenced by local conditions such as soil loss and crop yield, the explicit method must be used. 相似文献
916.
汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用1960-2012年汉江流域15个气象站点的日降雨资料和3个水文站同时期日径流资料,分析了9个极端降雨指数的空间分布规律,运用广义极值分布(GEV)、Gamma分布两种极值统计模型对各站点的最大1 d降雨、最大3 d降雨极值样本进行拟合,遴选描述降雨极值分布规律最优概率模型,进而推算给定重现期下的降雨设计值,并分析其空间分布规律;选用Gumbel、Clayton和Frank这3种Copula函数建立降雨-洪量极值联合分布模型,优选最合适的Copula函数,由此计算给定重现期下的洪量设计值。结果表明:GEV分布模型能更好地模拟降雨极值序列,不同重现期下的降雨极值在空间上均呈西低东高的特征;3种Copula函数中,Frank Copula函数能更好地拟合降雨-洪量相关关系,由此推求的洪量设计值大于单变量拟合设计值。 相似文献
917.
918.
北京市持续重污染天气分析 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
通过对2004-2008年北京市空气持续重污染过程的统计及其对非沙尘型持续重污染天气形势的特征分析,得到以下结论:持续重污染过程具有明显的季节分布特征,主要包括春季沙尘型污染和秋冬季节非沙尘型污染;非沙尘型持续重污染过程期间多对应着大雾、轻雾、霾、烟等低能见度天气,过程后期对应的天气现象多为大风或降水天气。其中大雾天气更易引发长时间持续的空气重污染事件。非沙尘型持续重污染的天气形势特点为:高空多为纬向环流,850 hPa多为暖脊控制,地面多处于弱气压场,鞍形场型污染尤为严重。北京持续重污染多对应区域性污染。 相似文献
919.
To assess the potential impact of climate changes on pasture production in the North Island, New Zealand, eight climate scenarios
of increased temperature and increased (or decreased) rainfall were investigated by integrating a polynomial regression model
for pasture production with a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results indicated that the climate change scenarios
assuming an increase in temperature by 1–2°C and a rainfall change by −20 to +20% would have a very significant impact on
pasture production with a predicted pasture production variation from −46.2 to +51.9% compared with the normal climate from
1961–1990. Increased temperature would generally have a positive effect on pasture production in the south and southeast of
the North Island, and increased rainfall would have a positive effect in the central, south and southeast of the North Island
and a negative effect in the north of the North Island. The interaction of decreased rainfall and increased temperature would
have a negative impact for the whole North Island except some central areas with high rainfall. Relevant management practices
for coping with potential climate change are discussed. 相似文献
920.
利用常规气象观测资料和Micaps提供的相关资料,对2009年9月19—20日在河套地区发生的寒潮天气的环流形势及物理量进行分析。分析表明:在寒潮爆发前期,500hPa系统,蒙古西部的冷中心强度≥-32℃,且温度场滞后于高度场,为冷空气爆发南下提供了最基本条件;700hPa河套地区及上游≥16m.s-1的西北风急流基本形成,等温线与等高线交角≥45°且10个纬距内有4条及以上等温线的密集区;850hPa河套地区有≥16℃的暖中心,高空槽前后的西北风速≥18 m.s-1,温度线与高度线的夹角>45°;地面蒙古气旋的暖性性质为寒潮爆发的前期提供了有利的热力条件,地面冷锋后部冷高压轴线接近南北向,且冷高压中心强度≥1040hPa,3h变压≥3hPa。 相似文献